Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Lakers
CHA	This season	LAL
3-4	Record	5-2
3-4	ATS	4-3
1-6	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 115–107 · win probability LAL 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

CHA 1, LAL 6 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, LAL 67.4%

LALBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 50.8% and 45.7% of their shots

LALBig

CHA offense vs LAL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, LAL 37.2. Allowed: CHA 28.4, LAL 30.7

LALBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

LAL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ ATL	L81–128LU
Nov 23	vs MEM	W124–101WU
Nov 25	vs CHI	W131–99WU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs UTAH	W132–123WO
Nov 20	vs SAC	W128–104WU
Nov 23	vs UTAH	W132–123WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 4–6 LALLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 15, 2025-26	CHA 135 @ LAL 117	LAL -3.5	CHA W
Nov 10, 2025-26	LAL 121 @ CHA 111	CHA +8.5	LAL W
Feb 19, 2024-25	CHA 100 @ LAL 97	LAL -13.5	CHA W
Jan 27, 2024-25	LAL 112 @ CHA 107	CHA +4.5	LAL W
Feb 5, 2023-24	LAL 124 @ CHA 118	CHA +13.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 1, Lakers 3, even 1

HornetsBetterLakers

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

LALBig

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

LALSmall

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHASmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

LALSmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

HornetsBetterLakers

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

LALBig

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

LAL6.7 #3

CHA		LAL
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	120.3 #5
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.18 #2
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
29.6 #28	3-point %	38.9 #4
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
21.6 #30	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
7.1 #25	Steals per game	10.4 #4
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Lakers