Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Hawks
CHA	This season	ATL
3-4	Record	3-4
3-4	ATS	3-4
1-6	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 113–107 · win probability ATL 67%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

CHA 1, ATL 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, ATL 18.3%

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, ATL 70.9%

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

CHA offense vs ATL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 50.8% and 44.7% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, ATL 23.4. Allowed: CHA 28.4, ATL 32.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

ATL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs MEM	W124–101WU
Nov 25	vs CHI	W131–99WU
Nov 28	vs BKN	W110–103WU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs DET	W130–129WO
Nov 27	@ BOS	W112–102WU
Nov 29	@ NY	L89–140LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

CHA 11–11 ATLSeries tied · 22 games since 2021-22 · CHA 14-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	ATL 128 @ CHA 81	CHA +2.5	ATL W
Feb 11, 2025-26	ATL 107 @ CHA 110	CHA -2.5	CHA W
Feb 7, 2025-26	CHA 126 @ ATL 119	ATL +1.5	CHA W
Dec 18, 2025-26	ATL 126 @ CHA 133	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Nov 23, 2025-26	CHA 110 @ ATL 113	ATL -8.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Hawks 3, even 2

HornetsBetterHawks

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

ATLBig

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

ATLSmall

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

ATLSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

HornetsBetterHawks

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

ATLBig

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

CHABig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

ATL3.7 #29

CHA		ATL
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	116.3 #13
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.10 #16
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
29.6 #28	3-point %	32.8 #22
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
21.6 #30	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.4 #8
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Hawks