Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Lakers
UTAH	This season	LAL
1-5	Record	5-2
1-5	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 124–112 · win probability LAL 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 236.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

UTAH 1, LAL 7 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALBig

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 41.7% and 45.7% of their shots

UTAHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, LAL 67.4%

LALBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, LAL 17.8%

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, LAL 37.2. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, LAL 30.7

LALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Even

UTAH offense vs LAL defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs PHX	L109–134LO
Nov 22	vs DAL	L120–138LO
Nov 23	@ LAL	L123–132LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs SAC	W128–104WU
Nov 23	vs UTAH	W132–123WO
Nov 27	@ SA	L108–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

UTAH 5–14 LALLAL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 5 meetings · UTAH 10-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 25, 2026-27	LAL 132 @ UTAH 123	UTAH +6.5	LAL W
Apr 12, 2025-26	UTAH 107 @ LAL 131	LAL -14.5	LAL W
Dec 18, 2025-26	LAL 143 @ UTAH 135	UTAH +9.5	UTAH W
Nov 23, 2025-26	LAL 108 @ UTAH 106	UTAH +9.5	UTAH W
Nov 18, 2025-26	UTAH 126 @ LAL 140	LAL -13.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Jazz 1, Lakers 3, even 1

JazzBetterLakers

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

LALBig

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

LALSmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

Even

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

JazzBetterLakers

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Even

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH108.7 #24

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

UTAH1.05 #25

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

UTAH104.0 #12

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH51.0 #24

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

UTAH32.6 #23

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

UTAH41.7 #21

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

UTAH31.6 #10

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH17.0 #25

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH25.7 #22

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

UTAH26.2 #19

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH118.8 #25

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.14 #25

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #18

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH37.6 #25

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #28

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH77.1 #4

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

UTAH6.2 #29

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

UTAH6.5 #5

LAL6.7 #3

UTAH		LAL
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.18 #2
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
32.6 #23	3-point %	38.9 #4
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
26.2 #19	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
6.2 #29	Steals per game	10.4 #4
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Lakers