Jacksonville Dolphins at Florida Gators: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ETStephen C. O'Connell Center · at Florida

#1FLAFlorida AP #1

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jacksonville and Florida
JAX	This season	FLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 99–55 · win probability FLA 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

JAX 0, FLA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FLABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: JAX 50.0 and allows 54.8; FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1

Context

Schedule so far

JAX has played the 247th-hardest schedule, FLA the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

FLABig

JAX offense vs FLA defense

Offense 232nd of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

FLABig

FLA offense vs JAX defense

Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 210th, on the model’s ratings

FLABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: JAX 32.8, FLA 39.0. Allowed: JAX 42.7, FLA 34.0

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: JAX plays 65.7 a game (322nd fastest), FLA 72.0 (34th). Faster games mean more points

FLABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JAX 31.7%, FLA 43.4%. Defensive: JAX 70.9%, FLA 75.2%

FLABig

Three-pointers

JAX hits 31.8% and allows 36.3%; FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 37.4% and 37.0% of their shots

FLASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JAX 27%, FLA 85%. Transfers in: JAX 6, FLA 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

FLASmall

Home court

FLA at home. This season: FLA 0-0 at home, JAX 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JAX 17.2%, FLA 16.4%. Forced: JAX 15.0%, FLA 15.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FLA -43.7	—
Total	—	154.4	—
Projected score	—	JAX 55.3 · FLA 99

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FLA -25.9	—
1H total	72.1	—
1H projected score	JAX 23.1 · FLA 49	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWLWL	12-18	40%	7-10	—
FLA WLLWL	19-16	54%	7-8	—

Venue/role: JAX away; FLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OUOUO	12-18	40%	10-20
FLA UUOOU	15-20	43%	27-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
FLA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs KC	No recent meeting
Nov 16	@ UGA	L56–102LO
Nov 19	vs LR	No recent meeting

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ FSU	W78–76LU
Nov 13	vs MRMK	W80–45LU
Nov 17	vs ND	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JAX 0–1 FLAFLA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · JAX 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2024-25	JAX 60 @ FLA 81	FLA -24.5	JAX W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jacksonville

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-18

40% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L W L W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L W L W L L L L L L L W L W W W L W W L L L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1840%

O U U U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O O U U O O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MIA	L 69-86	+18.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 11	@HPU	L 64-85	+17.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 15	@VMI	W 69-67	-1.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 18	@GMU	L 57-79	+16.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsBCU	W 69-64	+3.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsPAC	L 53-68	+2.5	L −12.5	135.5	U 121
Dec 2	vsFAMU	W 85-82	-10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 167
Dec 6	@FIU	L 65-88	+5.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 153
Dec 14	@TA&M	L 75-112	+26.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 187
Dec 17	@FAMU	L 65-72	-3.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 137
Dec 22	@FSU	L 63-87	+23.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 150
Jan 1	@LIP	L 57-76	+12.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 3	@APSU	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsQUC	L 51-77	+4.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsWGA	W 75-43	-1.5	W +30.5	141.5	U 118
Jan 15	@CARK	L 60-62	+7.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 122
Jan 17	@UNA	W 90-68	+1.5	W +23.5	133.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsBELL	L 70-77	-4.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 147
Jan 24	vsEKU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 29	vsLIP	W 70-65	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 31	vsFGCU	L 49-68	-1.5	L −20.5	136.5	U 117
Feb 5	@QUC	L 84-93	+8.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	@WGA	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 160
Feb 11	@STET	L 62-67	-2.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsUNF	W 63-56	-7.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 119
Feb 18	@FGCU	L 84-86	+6.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 170
Feb 21	vsAPSU	L 61-65	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 126
Feb 26	vsSTET	W 89-85	-7.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 174
Feb 28	@UNF	W 85-61	-1.5	W +22.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 4	vsBELL	L 79-82	+1.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+1.5

HPU

L 64-85

−3.5

VMI

W 69-67

+0.5

GMU

L 57-79

−5.5

BCU

W 69-64

+8.5

PAC

L 53-68

−12.5

FAMU

W 85-82

−7.5

FIU

L 65-88

−17.5

TA&M

L 75-112

−10.5

FAMU

L 65-72

−10.5

FSU

L 63-87

−0.5

LIP

L 57-76

−6.5

APSU

L 68-71

+7.5

QUC

L 51-77

−21.5

WGA

W 75-43

+30.5

CARK

L 60-62

+5.5

UNA

W 90-68

+23.5

BELL

L 70-77

−11.5

EKU

W 81-76

+3.5

LIP

W 70-65

+8.5

FGCU

L 49-68

−20.5

QUC

L 84-93

−0.5

WGA

L 73-87

−15.5

STET

L 62-67

−7.5

UNF

W 63-56

−0.5

FGCU

L 84-86

+4.5

APSU

L 61-65

+2.5

STET

W 89-85

−3.5

UNF

W 85-61

+22.5

BELL

L 79-82

−1.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+12.5

HPU

L 64-85

−7.5

VMI

W 69-67

−15.5

GMU

L 57-79

−0.5

BCU

W 69-64

−10.5

PAC

L 53-68

−14.5

FAMU

W 85-82

+28.5

FIU

L 65-88

+7.5

TA&M

L 75-112

+39.5

FAMU

L 65-72

−2.5

FSU

L 63-87

−9.5

LIP

L 57-76

−14.5

APSU

L 68-71

−1.5

QUC

L 51-77

−26.5

WGA

W 75-43

−23.5

CARK

L 60-62

−14.5

UNA

W 90-68

+24.5

BELL

L 70-77

+8.5

EKU

W 81-76

+14.5

LIP

W 70-65

−7.5

FGCU

L 49-68

−19.5

QUC

L 84-93

+30.5

WGA

L 73-87

+21.5

STET

L 62-67

−9.5

UNF

W 63-56

−34.5

FGCU

L 84-86

+33.5

APSU

L 61-65

−16.5

STET

W 89-85

+35.5

UNF

W 85-61

−5.5

BELL

L 79-82

+16.5

over 12under 18avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

L W W W W L W L L W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O U U O O O U U U O U U O U O U O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARIZ	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 6	vsUNF	W 104-64	-43.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	vsFSU	W 78-76	-17.5	L −15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 16	vsMIA	W 82-68	-10.5	W +3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 21	vsMRMK	W 80-45	-36.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 27	vsTCU	L 80-84	-11.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsPROV	W 90-78	-12.5	L −0.5	169.5	U 168
Dec 2	@DUKE	L 66-67	+9.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 133
Dec 9	vsCONN	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsGW	W 80-70	-14.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 17	vsSFPA	W 102-61	-44.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsCOLG	W 90-60	-27.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsDART	W 94-72	-35.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 3	@MIZ	L 74-76	-7.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsUGA	W 92-77	-9.5	W +5.5	172.5	U 169
Jan 10	vsTENN	W 91-67	-4.5	W +19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	@OU	W 96-79	-7.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	@VAN	W 98-94	-1.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	vsLSU	W 79-61	-15.5	W +2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsAUB	L 67-76	-11.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	@SC	W 95-48	-13.5	W +33.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 1	vsALA	W 100-77	-9.5	W +13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 7	@TA&M	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	167.5	U 153
Feb 11	@UGA	W 86-66	-8.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUK	W 92-83	-12.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsSC	W 76-62	-23.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	@MISS	W 94-75	-13.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	@TEX	W 84-71	-6.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 28	vsARK	W 111-77	-9.5	W +24.5	169.5	O 188
Mar 3	vsMSST	W 108-74	-20.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	@UK	W 84-77	-5.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 13	vsUK	W 71-63	-10.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 14	vsVAN	L 74-91	-7.5	L −24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 20	vsPV	W 114-55	-35.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 169
Mar 22	vsIOWA	L 72-73	-10.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

−9.5

UNF

W 104-64

−3.5

FSU

W 78-76

−15.5

MIA

W 82-68

+3.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−1.5

TCU

L 80-84

−15.5

PROV

W 90-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 66-67

+8.5

CONN

L 73-77

+0.5

W 80-70

−4.5

SFPA

W 102-61

−3.5

COLG

W 90-60

+2.5

DART

W 94-72

−13.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−9.5

UGA

W 92-77

+5.5

TENN

W 91-67

+19.5

W 96-79

+9.5

VAN

W 98-94

+2.5

LSU

W 79-61

+2.5

AUB

L 67-76

−20.5

W 95-48

+33.5

ALA

W 100-77

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-67

+13.5

UGA

W 86-66

+11.5

W 92-83

−3.5

W 76-62

−9.5

MISS

W 94-75

+5.5

TEX

W 84-71

+6.5

ARK

W 111-77

+24.5

MSST

W 108-74

+13.5

W 84-77

+1.5

W 71-63

−2.5

VAN

L 74-91

−24.5

W 114-55

+23.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−11.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

+15.5

UNF

W 104-64

−1.5

FSU

W 78-76

−26.5

MIA

W 82-68

−21.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−33.5

TCU

L 80-84

+8.5

PROV

W 90-78

−1.5

DUKE

L 66-67

−24.5

CONN

L 73-77

+4.5

W 80-70

−12.5

SFPA

W 102-61

+6.5

COLG

W 90-60

−6.5

DART

W 94-72

+5.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−4.5

UGA

W 92-77

−3.5

TENN

W 91-67

+6.5

W 96-79

+17.5

VAN

W 98-94

+27.5

LSU

W 79-61

−18.5

AUB

L 67-76

−16.5

W 95-48

−8.5

ALA

W 100-77

+0.5

TA&M

W 86-67

−14.5

UGA

W 86-66

−12.5

W 92-83

+20.5

W 76-62

−18.5

MISS

W 94-75

+16.5

TEX

W 84-71

−2.5

ARK

W 111-77

+18.5

MSST

W 108-74

+20.5

W 84-77

−1.5

W 71-63

−27.5

VAN

L 74-91

+3.5

W 114-55

+14.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−0.5

over 15under 20avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Jacksonville 0, Florida 5, even 0

JacksonvilleBetterFlorida

G C. Williams TR16.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 65

FLASmall

G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90

G J. Phillips TR15.5 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 59

FLASmall

G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89

G H. Wood11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

FLASmall

F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97

G E. Sterck6.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23

FLABig

F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

F J. Morrow TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 58

FLABig

C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97

JacksonvilleBetterFlorida

JAX offense232nd of 366 · -7.1

FLABig

FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4

JAX defense210th of 366 · -5.4

FLABig

FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0

Backcourt-1.9 · 4 players

FLABig

Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player

FLABig

Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players

Bench-1.1 · 4 players

FLABig

Bench+3.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestJAX betterFLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jacksonville

Guards

C. Williams33 min · TRJ. Phillips31 min · TRH. Wood28 minE. Sterck25 minR. Loux1 minL. BuckinghamNew

Forwards

J. Morrow21 min · TRR. Stirling15 min · TRN. Turner6 min · TRJ. Newell2 min · TR

Centers

S. MbingazoNew

Florida

Guards

D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min

Forwards

T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew

Centers

R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JAX69.5 #293

FLA87.1 #5

Points per possession

JAX1.06 #237

FLA1.21 #7

Pace (possessions)

JAX65.7 #322

FLA72.0 #34

Shooting

Effective FG%

JAX50.0 #232

FLA54.1 #63

3-point %

JAX31.8 #289

FLA31.2 #315

3-point attempt rate

JAX37.4 #223

FLA37.0 #230

Free throw rate

JAX32.8 #242

FLA39.0 #80

Possessions

Turnover rate

JAX17.2 #222

FLA16.4 #162

Offensive rebound rate

JAX31.7 #137

FLA43.4 #2

Assists per game

JAX11.1 #335

FLA17.0 #26

Defense

Points allowed

JAX75.2 #194

FLA71.5 #93

Points allowed per possession

JAX1.14 #313

FLA0.99 #19

Opponent effective FG%

JAX54.8 #325

FLA46.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

JAX36.3 #318

FLA32.1 #66

Turnovers forced

JAX15.0 #290

FLA15.2 #269

Defensive rebound rate

JAX70.9 #115

FLA75.2 #7

Steals per game

JAX6.3 #206

FLA6.6 #158

Blocks per game

JAX2.8 #261

FLA5.0 #16

JAX		FLA
Scoring
69.5 #293	Points per game	87.1 #5
1.06 #237	Points per possession	1.21 #7
65.7 #322	Pace (possessions)	72.0 #34
Shooting
50.0 #232	Effective FG%	54.1 #63
31.8 #289	3-point %	31.2 #315
37.4 #223	3-point attempt rate	37.0 #230
32.8 #242	Free throw rate	39.0 #80
Possessions
17.2 #222	Turnover rate	16.4 #162
31.7 #137	Offensive rebound rate	43.4 #2
11.1 #335	Assists per game	17.0 #26
Defense
75.2 #194	Points allowed	71.5 #93
1.14 #313	Points allowed per possession	0.99 #19
54.8 #325	Opponent effective FG%	46.1 #10
36.3 #318	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #66
15.0 #290	Turnovers forced	15.2 #269
70.9 #115	Defensive rebound rate	75.2 #7
6.3 #206	Steals per game	6.6 #158
2.8 #261	Blocks per game	5.0 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jacksonville

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Bellarmine79–82
W@ North Florida85–61
Wvs Stetson89–85
Lvs Austin Peay61–65
L@ FGCU84–86

A week or more of rest.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa72–73
Wvs Prairie View114–55
Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
Wvs Kentucky71–63
W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.

Jacksonville Dolphins at Florida Gators

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jacksonville

Florida

Florida has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jacksonville

Florida