1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. JXST @ USA
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at South Alabama Jaguars

Mitchell Center · at South Alabama
#198JXSTJax State
@
#227USASouth Alabama
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
JXSTThis seasonUSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USA 73–71 · win probability USA 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USA has more of the edges

JXST 2, USA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: JXST 17.0%, USA 13.1%. Forced: JXST 16.2%, USA 18.0%
JXSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: JXST 29.8%, USA 25.0%. Defensive: JXST 72.0%, USA 68.6%
USASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: JXST 43.1, USA 38.5. Allowed: JXST 38.7, USA 25.4
JXSTSmall
USA offense vs JXST defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings
USASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6; USA 52.6 and allows 50.1
USASmall
Home court
USA at home. This season: USA 0-0 at home, JXST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: JXST 0%, USA 21%. Transfers in: JXST 8, USA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
JXST offense vs USA defense
Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%; USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 36.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
JXST has played the 196th-hardest schedule, USA the 223rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: JXST plays 66.3 a game (302nd fastest), USA 67.1 (277th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USA -2.3—
Total—143.7—
Projected score—JXST 70.7 · USA 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSA -1.3—
1H total67.2—
1H projected scoreJXST 33 · USA 34.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: Jax State 0, South Alabama 1, even 4
Jax StateBetterSouth Alabama
G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28
No call
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49
No call
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38
No call
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7
USABig
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
Jax StateBetterSouth Alabama
JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4
Even
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9
JXSTSmall
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
No call
BackcourtNo numbers yet
Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players
USABig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
Bench+0.3 · 3 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestJXST betterUSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Jax State
Guards
J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew
Forwards
N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
JXSTUSA
Scoring
69.9 #287Points per game73.2 #218
1.05 #241Points per possession1.10 #139
66.3 #302Pace (possessions)67.1 #277
Shooting
49.7 #253Effective FG%52.6 #120
35.7 #763-point %34.5 #146
38.1 #2093-point attempt rate36.5 #237
43.1 #21Free throw rate38.5 #89
Possessions
17.0 #204Turnover rate13.1 #8
29.8 #208Offensive rebound rate25.0 #341
11.6 #310Assists per game11.9 #287
Defense
70.6 #66Points allowed71.3 #85
1.06 #120Points allowed per possession1.06 #100
49.6 #85Opponent effective FG%50.1 #105
33.3 #141Opponent 3-point %33.1 #133
16.2 #208Turnovers forced18.0 #96
72.0 #67Defensive rebound rate68.6 #222
5.8 #252Steals per game7.9 #46
3.0 #233Blocks per game2.2 #330
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs New Mexico St63–68
  • W@ UTEP64–61
  • L@ New Mexico St75–77
  • Lvs Liberty78–81
  • Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.