1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. NIU @ TLSA
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Northern Illinois Huskies at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Reynolds Center · at Tulsa
#334NIUN Illinois
@
#108TLSATulsa
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NIUThis seasonTLSA
1-0Record0-0
0-1ATS0-0
1-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TLSA 87–66 · win probability TLSA 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

NIU 0, TLSA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TLSABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; TLSA 55.4 and allows 49.5
TLSABig
Three-pointers
NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; TLSA hits 38.5% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 45.0% and 46.7% of their shots
TLSABig
TLSA offense vs NIU defense
Offense 99th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings
TLSABig
NIU offense vs TLSA defense
Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings
TLSABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, TLSA 41.4. Allowed: NIU 38.3, TLSA 32.0
TLSASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, TLSA 15.6%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, TLSA 15.4%
TLSASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, TLSA 32.8%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, TLSA 71.0%
Context
Schedule so far
NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, TLSA the 111th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TLSASmall
Home court
TLSA at home. This season: TLSA 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), TLSA 70.1 (115th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, TLSA 18%. Transfers in: NIU 6, TLSA 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TLSA -20.4—
Total—152.7—
Projected score—NIU 66.1 · TLSA 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTLSA -12.0—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreNIU 29.7 · TLSA 41.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Tulsa has the better starters

Position by position: N Illinois 0, Tulsa 3, even 2
N IllinoisBetterTulsa
G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27
TLSASmall
G K. Williams TR14.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 46
G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45
TLSASmall
G J. Johnson TR15 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52
Even
G B. Moss TR9.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 54
G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9
TLSASmall
F M. Emory TR11.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 27
F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33
Even
F C. Loofe TR7.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26
N IllinoisBetterTulsa
NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6
TLSABig
TLSA defense133rd of 366 · -2.5
NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5
TLSABig
TLSA offense99th of 366 · -0.8
Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players
TLSABig
Backcourt-0.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player
NIUSmall
Frontcourt-3.8 · 2 players
Bench-3.5 · 3 players
TLSABig
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNIU betterTLSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Illinois
Guards
M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew
Forwards
T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew
Tulsa
Guards
K. Williams36 min · TRJ. Johnson33 min · TRB. Moss27 min · TRM. Williams21 min · TRM. Rigsby19 minJ. Lawal13 min
Forwards
M. Emory37 min · TRC. Loofe26 min · TRK. Banks16 min · TRD. DesireNewA. DimitrijevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NIUTLSA
Scoring
66.3 #341Points per game83.9 #20
0.96 #354Points per possession1.20 #16
69.0 #181Pace (possessions)70.1 #115
Shooting
47.6 #324Effective FG%55.4 #29
30.9 #3233-point %38.5 #10
45.0 #663-point attempt rate46.7 #37
38.3 #95Free throw rate41.4 #39
Possessions
21.7 #360Turnover rate15.6 #109
30.3 #187Offensive rebound rate32.8 #95
11.6 #308Assists per game15.1 #79
Defense
78.9 #291Points allowed74.4 #172
1.15 #323Points allowed per possession1.06 #111
55.6 #342Opponent effective FG%49.5 #82
36.3 #315Opponent 3-point %32.4 #85
16.3 #199Turnovers forced15.4 #260
70.0 #161Defensive rebound rate71.0 #108
5.6 #288Steals per game6.6 #170
1.9 #352Blocks per game2.5 #306
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Akron55–94
  • Lvs Kent State76–102
  • Lvs Ball State43–79
  • L@ Toledo69–79
  • Lvs Ohio66–74

3 days since their last game.

Tulsa

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn86–92
  • Wvs New Mexico74–69
  • Wvs Wichita St83–79
  • Wvs UNLV77–66
  • Wvs SF Austin89–84

A week or more of rest.