1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. GWEB @ TEX
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns

Moody Center · at Texas
#348GWEBGardner-Webb
@
#11TEXTexas AP #7
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GWEBThis seasonTEX
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 99–56 · win probability TEX 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

GWEB 0, TEX 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TEXBig
TEX offense vs GWEB defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings
TEXBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GWEB 23.2%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: GWEB 63.4%, TEX 73.1%
TEXBig
GWEB offense vs TEX defense
Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
TEXBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8
TEXBig
Three-pointers
GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 39.8% and 35.8% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
GWEB has played the 154th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TEXSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GWEB 19.8%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: GWEB 15.3%, TEX 13.0%
TEXSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GWEB 30.3, TEX 44.2. Allowed: GWEB 35.3, TEX 39.6
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: GWEB plays 70.8 a game (84th fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points
TEXSmall
Home court
TEX at home. This season: TEX 0-0 at home, GWEB 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GWEB 35%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: GWEB 3, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TEX -42.4—
Total—155.0—
Projected score—GWEB 56.3 · TEX 98.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTEX -25.1—
1H total72.4—
1H projected scoreGWEB 23.7 · TEX 48.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Gardner-Webb 0, Texas 4, even 1
Gardner-WebbBetterTexas
G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62
TEXBig
G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98
G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
TEXBig
G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32
TEXBig
G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14
TEXBig
F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96
C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95
Gardner-WebbBetterTexas
GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4
TEXBig
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2
TEXBig
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
TEXBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players
TEXBig
Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
TEXSmall
Bench+0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestGWEB betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Gardner-Webb
Guards
J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew
Forwards
M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew
Centers
S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew
Texas
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GWEBTEX
Scoring
66.2 #343Points per game81.7 #34
0.94 #360Points per possession1.19 #22
70.8 #84Pace (possessions)68.7 #199
Shooting
47.8 #317Effective FG%54.1 #65
31.0 #3203-point %35.1 #107
39.8 #1743-point attempt rate35.8 #254
30.3 #302Free throw rate44.2 #7
Possessions
19.8 #347Turnover rate15.0 #68
23.2 #350Offensive rebound rate35.4 #35
9.7 #362Assists per game12.1 #278
Defense
86.7 #362Points allowed76.1 #220
1.22 #361Points allowed per possession1.11 #235
57.0 #356Opponent effective FG%50.8 #144
36.0 #300Opponent 3-point %34.7 #230
15.3 #265Turnovers forced13.0 #356
63.4 #355Defensive rebound rate73.1 #35
6.1 #224Steals per game5.5 #298
2.4 #309Blocks per game2.9 #239
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point59–81
  • Wvs SC Upstate65–64
  • L@ SC Upstate61–71
  • Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
  • L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue77–79
  • Wvs Gonzaga74–68
  • Wvs BYU79–71
  • Wvs NC State68–66
  • Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.