1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. CCU @ DUKE
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Duke Blue Devils

Cameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke
#283CCUCoastal
@
#3DUKEDuke AP #2
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CCUThis seasonDUKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUKE 94–52 · win probability DUKE 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 145.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

CCU 0, DUKE 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DUKEBig
CCU offense vs DUKE defense
Offense 295th of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CCU has played the 301st-hardest schedule, DUKE the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DUKEBig
DUKE offense vs CCU defense
Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 246th, on the model’s ratings
DUKEBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CCU 26.9%, DUKE 38.4%. Defensive: CCU 72.4%, DUKE 74.8%
DUKEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CCU 32.3, DUKE 38.2. Allowed: CCU 34.9, DUKE 22.8
DUKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CCU 47.9 and allows 46.8; DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2
DUKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CCU 15.3%, DUKE 16.0%. Forced: CCU 12.3%, DUKE 17.2%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CCU plays 69.9 a game (121st fastest), DUKE 66.8 (285th). Faster games mean more points
DUKESmall
Three-pointers
CCU hits 33.5% and allows 32.8%; DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 43.1% and 43.5% of their shots
DUKESmall
Home court
DUKE at home. This season: DUKE 0-0 at home, CCU 0-0 away
DUKESmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CCU 21%, DUKE 47%. Transfers in: CCU 6, DUKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DUKE -41.5—
Total—145.7—
Projected score—CCU 52.1 · DUKE 93.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDUKE -24.5—
1H total68.2—
1H projected scoreCCU 21.8 · DUKE 46.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Duke has the better starters

Position by position: Coastal 0, Duke 4, even 1
CoastalBetterDuke
G T. Thompson3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 15
DUKEBig
G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97
G D. Washington TR4.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25
DUKEBig
G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
G T. Perry TR4.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 38
DUKEBig
G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
G D. Craig4.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 31
DUKEBig
G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85
F A. Hardaway TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 44
Even
F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52
CoastalBetterDuke
CCU offense295th of 366 · -9.1
DUKEBig
DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4
CCU defense246th of 366 · -6.5
DUKEBig
DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players
DUKEBig
Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-1.9 · 4 players
DUKEBig
Bench+7.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCCU betterDUKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Coastal
Guards
T. Thompson20 minD. Washington15 min · TRT. Perry13 min · TRD. Craig12 minJ. Cross6 min · TRJ. AlstonNew
Forwards
A. Hardaway20 min · TRD. Green11 minD. Fuquay8 min · TRF. BighamNewJ. BuzzardNew
Centers
C. Middleton10 min · TR
Duke
Guards
J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew
Forwards
D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew
Centers
P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CCUDUKE
Scoring
71.8 #251Points per game81.6 #36
1.03 #290Points per possession1.23 #4
69.9 #121Pace (possessions)66.8 #285
Shooting
47.9 #314Effective FG%56.6 #13
33.5 #1963-point %34.7 #133
43.1 #1133-point attempt rate43.5 #100
32.3 #254Free throw rate38.2 #97
Possessions
15.3 #84Turnover rate16.0 #139
26.9 #296Offensive rebound rate38.4 #4
9.9 #359Assists per game16.7 #32
Defense
73.5 #143Points allowed63.6 #3
1.05 #88Points allowed per possession0.95 #2
46.8 #18Opponent effective FG%46.2 #13
32.8 #105Opponent 3-point %30.6 #27
12.3 #364Turnovers forced17.2 #133
72.4 #52Defensive rebound rate74.8 #10
4.3 #360Steals per game7.4 #92
3.2 #187Blocks per game3.4 #164
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Coastal

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern72–96
  • W@ James Madison69–68
  • W@ Georgia St76–71
  • Wvs Marshall79–75
  • Lvs James Madison65–67

A week or more of rest.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn72–73
  • Wvs St John's80–75
  • Wvs TCU81–58
  • Wvs Siena71–65
  • Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.