Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ETBreslin Center · at Michigan St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Toledo and Michigan St
TOL	This season	MSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 91–61 · win probability MSU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

TOL 1, MSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOL 29.5%, MSU 37.8%. Defensive: TOL 66.3%, MSU 77.6%

MSUBig

MSU offense vs TOL defense

Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

TOLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOL 14.7%, MSU 17.1%. Forced: TOL 17.9%, MSU 14.9%

Context

Schedule so far

TOL has played the 172nd-hardest schedule, MSU the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSUBig

TOL offense vs MSU defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

MSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3; MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: TOL plays 69.5 a game (146th fastest), MSU 67.3 (264th). Faster games mean more points

MSUSmall

Home court

MSU at home. This season: MSU 0-0 at home, TOL 0-0 away

MSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOL 30.5, MSU 35.9. Allowed: TOL 26.6, MSU 30.2

Even

Three-pointers

TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%; MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 32.5% and 36.4% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOL 43%, MSU 63%. Transfers in: TOL 2, MSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSU -29.9	—
Total	—	151.2	—
Projected score	—	TOL 60.6 · MSU 90.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSU -17.6	—
1H total	70.7	—
1H projected score	TOL 26.5 · MSU 44.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	10-4	—
MSU WLWWL	18-17	51%	7-10	—

Venue/role: TOL away; MSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
MSU OOOUU	16-19	46%	27-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ MRSH	L73–85LU
Nov 10	vs WRST	W81–71WU
Nov 14	@ DETM	W90–83LO

Michigan St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs DUKE	L60–66LU
Nov 13	vs UNI	No recent meeting
Nov 17	@ TENN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TOL 0–2 MSUMSU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 2 meetings · TOL 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2025-26	TOL 69 @ MSU 92	MSU -23.5	TOL W
Dec 4, 2021-22	TOL 68 @ MSU 81	MSU -13.5	TOL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Michigan St

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-19

46% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1751%

L W L W L W W W L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L W L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1946%

O U U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOLG	W 80-69	-22.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 8	vsARK	W 69-66	-2.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 13	vsSJSU	W 79-60	-24.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsUK	W 83-66	+3.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsDETM	W 84-56	-30.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 25	vsECU	W 89-56	-19.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsUNC	W 74-58	-1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	vsIOWA	W 71-52	-5.5	W +13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsDUKE	L 60-66	+1.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 13	@PSU	W 76-72	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 16	vsTOL	W 92-69	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 20	vsOAK	W 79-70	-19.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	vsCOR	W 114-97	-23.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 2	@NEB	L 56-58	+2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	vsUSC	W 80-51	-11.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 131
Jan 8	vsNU	W 76-66	-13.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 13	vsIU	W 81-60	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	@WASH	W 80-63	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 20	@ORE	W 68-52	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 24	vsMD	W 91-48	-18.5	W +24.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 27	@RUTG	W 88-79	-14.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 167
Jan 30	vsMICH	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 154
Feb 4	@MINN	L 73-76	-8.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 7	vsILL	W 85-82	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 13	@WIS	L 71-92	-1.5	L −22.5	149.5	O 163
Feb 17	vsUCLA	W 82-59	-8.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 22	vsOSU	W 66-60	-10.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 126
Feb 26	@PUR	W 76-74	+5.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 150
Mar 1	@IU	W 77-64	-2.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 5	vsRUTG	W 91-87	-20.5	L −16.5	141.5	O 178
Mar 8	@MICH	L 80-90	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsUCLA	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsNDSU	W 92-67	-16.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 159
Mar 21	vsLOU	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 27	vsCONN	L 63-67	+2.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

−11.5

ARK

W 69-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−5.5

W 83-66

+20.5

DETM

W 84-56

−2.5

ECU

W 89-56

+13.5

UNC

W 74-58

+14.5

IOWA

W 71-52

+13.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−4.5

PSU

W 76-72

−8.5

TOL

W 92-69

−0.5

OAK

W 79-70

−10.5

COR

W 114-97

−6.5

NEB

L 56-58

+0.5

USC

W 80-51

+17.5

W 76-66

−3.5

W 81-60

+14.5

WASH

W 80-63

+13.5

ORE

W 68-52

+5.5

W 91-48

+24.5

RUTG

W 88-79

−5.5

MICH

L 71-83

−9.5

MINN

L 73-76

−11.5

ILL

W 85-82

+1.5

WIS

L 71-92

−22.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+14.5

OSU

W 66-60

−4.5

PUR

W 76-74

+7.5

W 77-64

+10.5

RUTG

W 91-87

−16.5

MICH

L 80-90

+0.5

UCLA

L 84-88

−9.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+8.5

LOU

W 77-69

+2.5

CONN

L 63-67

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

+4.5

ARK

W 69-66

−20.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−4.5

W 83-66

−3.5

DETM

W 84-56

−9.5

ECU

W 89-56

+4.5

UNC

W 74-58

−20.5

IOWA

W 71-52

−10.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−15.5

PSU

W 76-72

+2.5

TOL

W 92-69

+10.5

OAK

W 79-70

−6.5

COR

W 114-97

+50.5

NEB

L 56-58

−32.5

USC

W 80-51

−20.5

W 76-66

−1.5

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 80-63

−2.5

ORE

W 68-52

−19.5

W 91-48

−2.5

RUTG

W 88-79

+28.5

MICH

L 71-83

+4.5

MINN

L 73-76

+12.5

ILL

W 85-82

+24.5

WIS

L 71-92

+13.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+1.5

OSU

W 66-60

−20.5

PUR

W 76-74

+6.5

W 77-64

−3.5

RUTG

W 91-87

+36.5

MICH

L 80-90

+17.5

UCLA

L 84-88

+30.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+14.5

LOU

W 77-69

−5.5

CONN

L 63-67

−6.5

over 16under 19avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Michigan St has the better starters

Position by position: Toledo 0, Michigan St 3, even 2

ToledoBetterMichigan St

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

Even

G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

MSUBig

F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

MSUSmall

F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

MSUSmall

C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80

ToledoBetterMichigan St

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

MSUSmall

MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

MSUBig

MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

MSUBig

Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

MSUBig

Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

MSUSmall

Bench+0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestTOL betterMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

Michigan St

Guards

J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew

Forwards

C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min

Centers

A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOL79.8 #71

MSU78.8 #84

Points per possession

TOL1.15 #62

MSU1.17 #40

Pace (possessions)

TOL69.5 #146

MSU67.3 #264

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOL54.5 #50

MSU53.8 #72

3-point %

TOL37.0 #29

MSU36.3 #47

3-point attempt rate

TOL32.5 #323

MSU36.4 #241

Free throw rate

TOL30.5 #298

MSU35.9 #157

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOL14.7 #51

MSU17.1 #217

Offensive rebound rate

TOL29.5 #220

MSU37.8 #10

Assists per game

TOL15.6 #61

MSU18.6 #4

Defense

Points allowed

TOL77.4 #250

MSU68.3 #37

Points allowed per possession

TOL1.11 #257

MSU1.02 #40

Opponent effective FG%

TOL54.3 #308

MSU48.9 #61

Opponent 3-point %

TOL34.4 #215

MSU33.0 #119

Turnovers forced

TOL17.9 #104

MSU14.9 #296

Defensive rebound rate

TOL66.3 #313

MSU77.6 #1

Steals per game

TOL7.7 #67

MSU5.1 #328

Blocks per game

TOL2.9 #247

MSU4.1 #59

TOL		MSU
Scoring
79.8 #71	Points per game	78.8 #84
1.15 #62	Points per possession	1.17 #40
69.5 #146	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #264
Shooting
54.5 #50	Effective FG%	53.8 #72
37.0 #29	3-point %	36.3 #47
32.5 #323	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #241
30.5 #298	Free throw rate	35.9 #157
Possessions
14.7 #51	Turnover rate	17.1 #217
29.5 #220	Offensive rebound rate	37.8 #10
15.6 #61	Assists per game	18.6 #4
Defense
77.4 #250	Points allowed	68.3 #37
1.11 #257	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #40
54.3 #308	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #61
34.4 #215	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #119
17.9 #104	Turnovers forced	14.9 #296
66.3 #313	Defensive rebound rate	77.6 #1
7.7 #67	Steals per game	5.1 #328
2.9 #247	Blocks per game	4.1 #59

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn63–67
Wvs Louisville77–69
Wvs N Dakota St92–67
Lvs UCLA84–88
L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.

Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Toledo

Michigan St

Michigan St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Toledo

Michigan St