LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Suns
LAC	This season	PHX
1-5	Record	1-3
3-3	ATS	0-4
3-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 113–112 · win probability PHX 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

LAC 4, PHX 3 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, PHX 22.8. Allowed: LAC 24.7, PHX 31.1

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, PHX 17.1%

LACSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 42.3% and 45.1% of their shots

PHXSmall

LAC offense vs PHX defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

LACSmall

PHX offense vs LAC defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Recent form

Last 4: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, PHX 65.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: LAC away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs MIN	L101–127LO
Dec 13	@ SA	L99–118LU
Dec 16	@ CHA	W117–109WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs SAC	W114–103WU
Dec 12	vs MIN	L104–116LU
Dec 14	vs ATL	L103–110LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

LAC 10–15 PHXPHX leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · LAC 12-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2025-26	LAC 117 @ PHX 93	PHX -2.5	LAC W
Nov 8, 2025-26	PHX 114 @ LAC 103	LAC -4.5	PHX W
Nov 6, 2025-26	LAC 102 @ PHX 115	PHX -2.5	PHX W
Oct 24, 2025-26	PHX 102 @ LAC 129	LAC -10.5	LAC W
Mar 4, 2024-25	LAC 117 @ PHX 119	PHX +2.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 2, Suns 1, even 2

ClippersBetterSuns

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

Even

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

LACSmall

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

Even

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

ClippersBetterSuns

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

PHXSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

LACBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACSmall

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

PHX5.3 #10

LAC		PHX
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.12 #12
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
38.6 #5	3-point %	35.0 #16
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
24.3 #26	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
11.3 #3	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Suns

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Suns

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Suns