Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Rockets
PHX	This season	HOU
1-3	Record	6-1
0-4	ATS	6-1
3-1	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 119–107 · win probability HOU 82%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

PHX 0, HOU 8 · 2026-27 so far

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Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 45.1% and 38.1% of their shots

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Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, HOU 31.9. Allowed: PHX 31.1, HOU 24.7

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PHX offense vs HOU defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

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HOU offense vs PHX defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

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Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

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Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, HOU 73.2%

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

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Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, HOU 15.7%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: PHX away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs DAL	W112–107LU
Nov 29	@ UTAH	W134–109WO
Dec 1	vs LAC	L93–117LO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs PHI	W113–102WU
Nov 30	vs LAL	L78–98LU
Dec 1	vs TOR	W113–99WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

PHX 7–11 HOUHOU leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 8 meetings · PHX 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 7, 2025-26	HOU 119 @ PHX 105	PHX +1.5	HOU W
Jan 5, 2025-26	PHX 97 @ HOU 100	HOU -8.5	PHX W
Dec 5, 2025-26	PHX 98 @ HOU 117	HOU -8.5	HOU W
Nov 24, 2025-26	HOU 114 @ PHX 92	PHX +6.5	HOU W
Mar 30, 2024-25	HOU 148 @ PHX 109	PHX +2.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Rockets 4, even 0

SunsBetterRockets

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXSmall

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

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G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

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F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

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F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

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C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

SunsBetterRockets

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

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HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

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HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

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Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

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Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

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Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

HOU5.9 #8

PHX		HOU
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.20 #1
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
35.0 #16	3-point %	39.0 #3
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
27.5 #8	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.7 #6
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Rockets