Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Magic
MIL	This season	ORL
1-5	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 120–110 · win probability ORL 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 230.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

MIL 1, ORL 6 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, ORL 68.9%

ORLBig

MIL offense vs ORL defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, ORL 31.7. Allowed: MIL 29.7, ORL 29.8

ORLSmall

ORL offense vs MIL defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 45.9% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, ORL 13.6%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: MIL away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs ATL	L99–122LU
Nov 18	@ MIA	L105–112LU
Nov 19	vs POR	L99–130LO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ BOS	L97–108LU
Nov 18	vs PHI	L97–109LU
Nov 20	@ BKN	W118–98WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MIL 13–5 ORLMIL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · MIL 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	ORL 130 @ MIL 91	MIL +6.5	ORL W
Feb 11, 2025-26	MIL 116 @ ORL 108	ORL -11.5	MIL W
Feb 9, 2025-26	MIL 99 @ ORL 118	ORL -9.5	ORL W
Mar 8, 2024-25	ORL 111 @ MIL 109	MIL -6.5	ORL W
Jan 15, 2024-25	ORL 93 @ MIL 122	MIL -6.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 1, Magic 2, even 2

BucksBetterMagic

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

ORLBig

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

Even

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

Even

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

MILSmall

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

BucksBetterMagic

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

ORLBig

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

ORLSmall

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

ORLBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILSmall

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

ORL4.2 #23

MIL		ORL
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.07 #21
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
33.9 #21	3-point %	35.4 #11
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
26.0 #20	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
5.7 #30	Steals per game	7.0 #26
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Magic

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Magic