Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Magic
PHI	This season	ORL
6-1	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	2-4
2-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 112–111 · win probability ORL 52%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PHI 2, ORL 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, ORL 13.6%

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHIBig

ORL offense vs PHI defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

PHI offense vs ORL defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 39.5% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, ORL 31.7. Allowed: PHI 28.5, ORL 29.8

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, ORL 68.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: PHI away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs MIL	W127–116LO
Nov 23	vs POR	W109–103WU
Nov 25	vs MIA	L109–119LU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ BKN	W118–98WO
Nov 22	@ WSH	W136–131LO
Nov 24	vs DET	L94–116LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

PHI 14–5 ORLPHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · PHI 13-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 15, 2025-26	ORL 97 @ PHI 109	PHI -1.5	PHI W
Jan 9, 2025-26	PHI 103 @ ORL 91	ORL +3.5	PHI W
Nov 25, 2025-26	ORL 144 @ PHI 103	PHI +4.5	ORL W
Oct 27, 2025-26	ORL 124 @ PHI 136	PHI +6.5	PHI W
Jan 12, 2024-25	PHI 99 @ ORL 104	ORL -1.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Magic 0, even 2

76ersBetterMagic

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

Even

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

Even

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

PHISmall

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

76ersBetterMagic

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

ORLSmall

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

ORL4.2 #23

PHI		ORL
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.07 #21
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
34.0 #20	3-point %	35.4 #11
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
25.1 #22	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
9.6 #7	Steals per game	7.0 #26
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Magic

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Magic

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Magic