Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Wizards
ORL	This season	WSH
2-4	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 115–114 · win probability ORL 55%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

ORL 1, WSH 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORLBig

WSH offense vs ORL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, WSH 34.2. Allowed: ORL 29.8, WSH 21.8

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, WSH 13.3%

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 46.5% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, WSH 68.0%

Even

ORL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ORL away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs DET	L94–116LO
Nov 28	@ WSH	W136–131LO
Nov 29	@ DET	L94–116LO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs BOS	L100–111WU
Nov 28	vs ORL	L131–136WO
Nov 30	@ CHA	W95–79WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

ORL 13–7 WSHORL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 2 meetings · ORL 12-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2025-26	WSH 131 @ ORL 136	ORL -14.5	WSH W
Mar 3, 2025-26	WSH 109 @ ORL 126	ORL -15.5	ORL W
Jan 6, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ WSH 120	WSH +7.5	WSH W
Nov 1, 2025-26	ORL 125 @ WSH 94	WSH +9.5	ORL W
Apr 3, 2024-25	ORL 109 @ WSH 97	WSH +15.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Magic has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 1, Wizards 0, even 4

MagicBetterWizards

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

ORLBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

Even

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

Even

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

MagicBetterWizards

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Even

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

ORLSmall

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

ORLBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

WSH5.3 #9

ORL		WSH
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.08 #19
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
35.4 #11	3-point %	29.3 #29
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
26.3 #16	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
7.0 #26	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Wizards

Magic has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Wizards