Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 ORL | This season | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 115–106 · win probability DET 75%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 221.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
ORL 0, DET 6 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigORL offense vs DET defense
Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, DET 15.6%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, DET 17.1%
DETBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, DET 72.8%
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
DETSmallShooting
Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETSmallHome court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, ORL 2-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 46.5% and 43.3% of their shots
Even
DET offense vs ORL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, DET 28.9. Allowed: ORL 29.8, DET 28.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -9.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model221.1
Model edge—
Projected score
ORL 105.9 · DET 115.2
Win probability
DET 75%
1st half
Spread
DET -5.1
Total
111.0
Projected score
ORL 52.9 · DET 58.1
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORLlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22
ORL 14–12 DETORL leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 3 meetings · ORL 13-13 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2025-26 | ORL 94 @ DET 116 | DET -8.5 | DET W |
| May 1, 2025-26 | DET 93 @ ORL 79 | ORL +3.5 | DET W |
| Apr 29, 2025-26 | ORL 109 @ DET 116 | DET -11.5 | ORL W |
| Apr 27, 2025-26 | DET 88 @ ORL 94 | ORL +3.5 | ORL W |
| Apr 25, 2025-26 | DET 105 @ ORL 113 | ORL +1.5 | ORL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Magic
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
ATL
ATLL 125-132
−9.5
23
vs
MIN
MINL 93-115
−23.5
25
@
NY
NYW 111-102
+15.5
28
@
TOR
TORL 99-129
−24.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+12.5
1
vs
BOS
BOSL 97-108
−4.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsATL
ATLL 125-132
+23.5
23
vsMIN
MINL 93-115
−26.5
25
@NY
NYW 111-102
−11.5
28
@TOR
TORL 99-129
+3.5
30
@TOR
TORW 121-114
+8.5
1
vsBOS
BOSL 97-108
−16.5
over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pistons has the better starters
Position by position: Magic 1, Pistons 2, even 2
MagicBetterPistons
G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 62
←ORLSmall
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
Score 3
→DETBig
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast
Score 90
=Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 35
→DETBig
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 28
=Even
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
MagicBetterPistons
ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5
→DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1
=Even
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players
→DETBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players
→DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
→DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestORL betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MagicGuards
D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min
Forwards
F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min
Centers
W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min
Out
J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
ORL107.7 #26DET109.8 #21Points per possession
ORL1.07 #21DET1.09 #18Pace (possessions)
ORL101.9 #22DET100.9 #29Shooting
Effective FG%
ORL53.4 #15DET53.1 #173-point %
ORL35.4 #11DET36.3 #93-point attempt rate
ORL46.5 #6DET43.3 #13Free throw rate
ORL31.7 #9DET28.9 #14Possessions
Turnover rate
ORL17.0 #24DET15.6 #17Offensive rebound rate
ORL23.4 #26DET27.2 #17Assists per game
ORL26.3 #16DET26.7 #15Defense
Points allowed
ORL116.7 #22DET101.8 #1Points allowed per possession
ORL1.13 #24DET1.01 #1Opponent effective FG%
ORL53.0 #13DET48.8 #2Opponent 3-point %
ORL34.6 #13DET32.5 #10Turnovers forced
ORL13.6 #26DET17.1 #6Defensive rebound rate
ORL68.9 #26DET72.8 #15Steals per game
ORL7.0 #26DET9.0 #12Blocks per game
ORL4.2 #23DET6.7 #4| ORL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 107.7 #26 | Points per game | 109.8 #21 |
| 1.07 #21 | Points per possession | 1.09 #18 |
| 101.9 #22 | Pace (possessions) | 100.9 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.4 #15 | Effective FG% | 53.1 #17 |
| 35.4 #11 | 3-point % | 36.3 #9 |
| 46.5 #6 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.3 #13 |
| 31.7 #9 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #14 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #24 | Turnover rate | 15.6 #17 |
| 23.4 #26 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #17 |
| 26.3 #16 | Assists per game | 26.7 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.7 #22 | Points allowed | 101.8 #1 |
| 1.13 #24 | Points allowed per possession | 1.01 #1 |
| 53.0 #13 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.8 #2 |
| 34.6 #13 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.5 #10 |
| 13.6 #26 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #6 |
| 68.9 #26 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.8 #15 |
| 7.0 #26 | Steals per game | 9.0 #12 |
| 4.2 #23 | Blocks per game | 6.7 #4 |
Magic
2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Celtics97–108
- W@ Raptors121–114
- L@ Raptors99–129
- W@ Knicks111–102
- Lvs Timberwolves93–115
A week or more of rest.
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.