Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 30, 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Pistons
DEN	This season	DET
3-2	Record	5-1
2-3	ATS	5-1
3-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 116–110 · win probability DET 67%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DEN 1, DET 5 · 2026-27 so far

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, DET 28.9. Allowed: DEN 21.5, DET 28.1

DETSmall

DEN offense vs DET defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

DETSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

DETSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, DET 15.6%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, DET 17.1%

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, DET 72.8%

Even

DET offense vs DEN defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 40.9% and 43.3% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	—

Venue/role: DEN away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ PHI	W124–96WU
Dec 12	@ UTAH	W130–117LU
Dec 15	@ POR	W137–132LO

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs MEM	W126–110LO
Dec 13	@ IND	W133–121LO
Dec 14	vs BKN	W110–94WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 7–3 DETDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · DEN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 3, 2025-26	DEN 121 @ DET 124	DET -5.5	DEN W
Jan 27, 2025-26	DET 109 @ DEN 107	DEN +7.5	DEN W
Feb 28, 2024-25	DEN 134 @ DET 119	DET -2.5	DEN W
Dec 28, 2024-25	DET 121 @ DEN 134	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Jan 7, 2023-24	DET 114 @ DEN 131	DEN -16.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 1, Pistons 0, even 4

NuggetsBetterPistons

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

Even

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

Even

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

Even

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

Even

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

NuggetsBetterPistons

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DETSmall

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DETSmall

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

DET6.7 #4

DEN		DET
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	109.8 #21
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.09 #18
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
37.4 #7	3-point %	36.3 #9
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
26.8 #14	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.0 #12
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Pistons

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Pistons

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Pistons