Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 30, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Nets
OKC	This season	BKN
4-2	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 115–105 · win probability OKC 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 4, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

BKN offense vs OKC defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, BKN 15.9%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 35.8% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, OKC 1-2 away

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs BKN defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, BKN 77.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, BKN 32.9. Allowed: OKC 23.4, BKN 33.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: OKC away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs BKN	W121–92WU
Dec 13	vs TOR	W116–107WO
Dec 16	vs SAC	W113–99LU

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ OKC	L92–121LU
Dec 13	vs BOS	L124–125WO
Dec 14	@ DET	L94–110LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 8–2 BKNOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 4 meetings · OKC 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 18, 2025-26	OKC 121 @ BKN 92	BKN +19.5	OKC W
Feb 20, 2025-26	BKN 86 @ OKC 105	OKC -16.5	OKC W
Feb 26, 2024-25	OKC 129 @ BKN 121	BKN +16.5	BKN W
Jan 19, 2024-25	BKN 101 @ OKC 127	OKC -16.5	OKC W
Jan 5, 2023-24	OKC 115 @ BKN 124	BKN +4.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Nets 2, even 0

ThunderBetterNets

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

BKNSmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

ThunderBetterNets

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

BKN4.7 #17

OKC		BKN
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.03 #29
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
30.9 #26	3-point %	35.1 #15
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
21.7 #29	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.0 #14
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Nets

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Nets

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Nets