Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 13, 3:30 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Thunder
TOR	This season	OKC
3-3	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 111–110 · win probability OKC 54%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

TOR 3, OKC 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

TOR offense vs OKC defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

TORBig

OKC offense vs TOR defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, OKC 21.8. Allowed: TOR 41.5, OKC 23.4

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, OKC 71.4%

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

Even

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 38.1% and 35.8% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: TOR away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ CHA	W97–96LU
Dec 16	vs SA	L107–110WU
Dec 18	vs GS	W145–127WO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 16	vs SAC	W113–99LU
Dec 18	@ CHA	L97–124LU
Dec 20	@ ATL	W140–129LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 3–7 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 24, 2025-26	OKC 116 @ TOR 107	TOR -1.5	OKC W
Jan 25, 2025-26	TOR 103 @ OKC 101	OKC -11.5	TOR W
Feb 7, 2024-25	TOR 109 @ OKC 121	OKC -18.5	TOR W
Dec 5, 2024-25	OKC 129 @ TOR 92	TOR +10.5	OKC W
Mar 22, 2023-24	OKC 123 @ TOR 103	TOR +16.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 2, Thunder 3, even 0

RaptorsBetterThunder

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

RaptorsBetterThunder

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

OKC6.3 #7

TOR		OKC
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.05 #23
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
32.0 #24	3-point %	30.9 #26
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
29.2 #2	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
12.7 #2	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Thunder

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Thunder