Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Thunder
BKN	This season	OKC
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 117–102 · win probability OKC 85%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

BKN 1, OKC 5 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

BKN offense vs OKC defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, OKC 15.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 48.0% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, BKN 1-2 away

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs BKN defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, OKC 71.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, OKC 21.8. Allowed: BKN 33.5, OKC 23.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs BOS	L124–125WO
Dec 14	@ DET	L94–110LU
Dec 16	vs DAL	L114–123LO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs TOR	W116–107WO
Dec 16	vs SAC	W113–99LU
Dec 18	@ CHA	L97–124LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 2–8 OKCOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 4 meetings · BKN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 18, 2025-26	OKC 121 @ BKN 92	BKN +19.5	OKC W
Feb 20, 2025-26	BKN 86 @ OKC 105	OKC -16.5	OKC W
Feb 26, 2024-25	OKC 129 @ BKN 121	BKN +16.5	BKN W
Jan 19, 2024-25	BKN 101 @ OKC 127	OKC -16.5	OKC W
Jan 5, 2023-24	OKC 115 @ BKN 124	BKN +4.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 2, Thunder 3, even 0

NetsBetterThunder

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

BKNSmall

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

NetsBetterThunder

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

OKCBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

OKC6.3 #7

BKN		OKC
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.05 #23
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
35.1 #15	3-point %	30.9 #26
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
22.8 #28	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
9.0 #14	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Thunder