Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Heat
OKC	This season	MIA
4-2	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 116–114 · win probability OKC 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

OKC 2, MIA 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs MIA defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, MIA 72.3%

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, MIA 27.3. Allowed: OKC 23.4, MIA 23.2

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Even

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 35.8% and 41.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, MIA 15.4%

Even

MIA offense vs OKC defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: OKC away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	@ IND	L114–117LO
Nov 25	vs MIN	W116–103WU
Nov 28	@ MIL	L93–110LU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ PHI	W119–109WU
Nov 27	@ NY	L125–132WO
Nov 29	@ CLE	L128–149LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 5–5 MIASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 17, 2025-26	OKC 120 @ MIA 122	MIA +11.5	MIA W
Jan 11, 2025-26	MIA 112 @ OKC 124	OKC -14.5	MIA W
Feb 12, 2024-25	MIA 101 @ OKC 115	OKC -13.5	OKC W
Dec 20, 2024-25	OKC 104 @ MIA 97	MIA +1.5	OKC W
Mar 8, 2023-24	MIA 100 @ OKC 107	OKC -8.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Heat 2, even 0

ThunderBetterHeat

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

MIASmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

ThunderBetterHeat

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

OKCSmall

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

Even

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

MIASmall

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

MIA5.0 #13

OKC		MIA
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.11 #14
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
30.9 #26	3-point %	34.1 #19
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
21.7 #29	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
8.3 #20	Steals per game	8.3 #19
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Heat

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Heat

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Heat