Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Bucks
OKC	This season	MIL
4-2	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	2-4
1-5	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 118–108 · win probability OKC 75%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 5, MIL 3 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

MIL offense vs OKC defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, MIL 12.2%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

OKCBig

OKC offense vs MIL defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

MILSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, MIL 74.2%

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, OKC 1-2 away

MILSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 35.8% and 45.9% of their shots

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, MIL 23.9. Allowed: OKC 23.4, MIL 29.7

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: OKC away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ BKN	W121–92WU
Dec 2	vs BKN	W121–92WU
Dec 13	vs TOR	W116–107WO

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	vs SA	L95–127LU
Dec 2	vs NY	L98–127LO
Dec 12	@ MEM	W131–115WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

OKC 4–7 MILMIL leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · OKC 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 12, 2025-26	MIL 110 @ OKC 93	OKC -13.5	MIL W
Jan 21, 2025-26	OKC 122 @ MIL 102	MIL +12.5	OKC W
Mar 16, 2024-25	OKC 121 @ MIL 105	MIL +5.5	OKC W
Feb 3, 2024-25	MIL 96 @ OKC 125	OKC -17.5	OKC W
Dec 17, 2024-25	MIL 97 @ OKC 81	OKC -5.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Bucks 1, even 1

ThunderBetterBucks

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

MILBig

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

Even

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

ThunderBetterBucks

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

OKCSmall

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

MIL4.0 #27

OKC		MIL
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.07 #20
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
30.9 #26	3-point %	33.9 #21
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
21.7 #29	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
8.3 #20	Steals per game	5.7 #30
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Bucks

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Bucks

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Bucks