Miami Heat at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 7:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNY -5.5no move

Total233.5no move

Season records: Heat and Knicks
MIA	This season	NY
2-4	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 118–110 · win probability NY 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

NY -5.5

no move since the open

Total

233.5

model 228.3 · Under by 5

Model edge

NY by 2

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

MIA 2, NY 3 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, NY 78.7%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, NY 15.2%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, NY 13.2%

NYSmall

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 41.7% and 43.2% of their shots

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, MIA 1-1 away

MIASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, NY 24.5. Allowed: MIA 23.2, NY 25.9

Even

NY offense vs MIA defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

MIA offense vs NY defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; NY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ CLE	L128–149LO
Dec 1	vs ATL	W129–117WO
Dec 3	vs WSH	W140–117WO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs ATL	W140–89WO
Dec 1	@ CHI	W133–127LO
Dec 2	@ MIL	W127–98WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

MIA 10–13 NYNY leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · MIA 13-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2025-26	MIA 125 @ NY 132	NY -7.5	MIA W
Nov 17, 2025-26	NY 113 @ MIA 115	MIA -1.5	MIA W
Nov 14, 2025-26	MIA 132 @ NY 140	NY -6.5	NY W
Oct 26, 2025-26	NY 107 @ MIA 115	MIA +2.5	MIA W
Mar 17, 2024-25	MIA 95 @ NY 116	NY -6.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 0, Knicks 2, even 3

HeatBetterKnicks

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

NYBig

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

Even

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

Even

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

Even

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

HeatBetterKnicks

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Even

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

NY4.0 #28

MIA		NY
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.05 #24
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
34.1 #19	3-point %	35.2 #13
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
28.8 #3	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
8.3 #19	Steals per game	7.3 #23
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Knicks