Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 7:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Pacers
OKC	This season	IND
4-2	Record	2-5
3-3	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 116–109 · win probability OKC 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 4, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

IND offense vs OKC defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, IND 72.7%

OKCSmall

OKC offense vs IND defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, IND 14.8%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, IND 14.9%

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 35.8% and 43.1% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, IND 31.2. Allowed: OKC 23.4, IND 32.1

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs MIN	W116–103WU
Nov 28	@ MIL	L93–110LU
Nov 30	@ BKN	W121–92WU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs PHI	L109–114WU
Nov 28	@ CHI	W145–126WO
Dec 1	@ CLE	L108–117WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

OKC 9–8 INDOKC leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · OKC 8-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	IND 117 @ OKC 114	OKC -15.5	IND W
Oct 23, 2025-26	OKC 141 @ IND 135	IND +7.5	IND W
Jun 22, 2024-25	IND 91 @ OKC 103	OKC -6.5	OKC W
Jun 19, 2024-25	OKC 91 @ IND 108	IND +5.5	IND W
Jun 16, 2024-25	IND 109 @ OKC 120	OKC -8.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Pacers 2, even 0

ThunderBetterPacers

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

INDBig

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

INDSmall

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

ThunderBetterPacers

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

OKCSmall

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

IND4.0 #26

OKC		IND
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.10 #17
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
30.9 #26	3-point %	34.1 #18
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
21.7 #29	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
8.3 #20	Steals per game	6.9 #27
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Pacers

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Pacers

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Pacers