Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 7:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Pacers
PHI	This season	IND
6-1	Record	2-5
4-3	ATS	3-4
2-5	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 115–110 · win probability PHI 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 3, IND 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

IND offense vs PHI defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, IND 14.8%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, IND 14.9%

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 39.5% and 43.1% of their shots

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, PHI 3-0 away

INDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, IND 72.7%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, IND 31.2. Allowed: PHI 28.5, IND 32.1

Even

PHI offense vs IND defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: PHI away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ HOU	L102–113LU
Dec 1	vs MEM	W139–129WO
Dec 2	vs DEN	L96–124LU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ CHI	W145–126WO
Dec 1	@ CLE	L108–117WU
Dec 3	@ ATL	W129–124WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

PHI 13–6 INDPHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · PHI 8-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	PHI 114 @ IND 109	IND +7.5	IND W
Apr 10, 2025-26	PHI 105 @ IND 94	IND +14.5	IND W
Feb 24, 2025-26	PHI 135 @ IND 114	IND +10.5	PHI W
Jan 19, 2025-26	IND 104 @ PHI 113	PHI -6.5	PHI W
Dec 12, 2025-26	IND 105 @ PHI 115	PHI -5.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 2, Pacers 1, even 2

76ersBetterPacers

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

Even

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

Even

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHISmall

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

INDSmall

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

76ersBetterPacers

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

PHIBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

IND4.0 #26

PHI		IND
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.10 #17
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
34.0 #20	3-point %	34.1 #18
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
25.1 #22	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
9.6 #7	Steals per game	6.9 #27
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Pacers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Pacers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Pacers