Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Raptors
MIL	This season	TOR
1-5	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 122–107 · win probability TOR 85%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

MIL 1, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, TOR 20.8%

TORBig

MIL offense vs TOR defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

TOR offense vs MIL defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MILSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 38.1% of their shots

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, TOR 27.7. Allowed: MIL 29.7, TOR 41.5

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, TOR 73.4%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIL away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs BKN	W125–108WO
Nov 27	@ DET	L111–137LO
Nov 28	vs OKC	W110–93WU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs BKN	W136–101WO
Nov 29	vs DEN	L115–121WU
Dec 1	@ HOU	L99–113LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

MIL 8–9 TORTOR leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 3 meetings · MIL 7-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2025-26	TOR 122 @ MIL 94	MIL +4.5	TOR W
Dec 18, 2025-26	TOR 111 @ MIL 105	MIL +4.5	TOR W
Nov 4, 2025-26	MIL 100 @ TOR 128	TOR -2.5	TOR W
Oct 24, 2025-26	MIL 122 @ TOR 116	TOR -2.5	MIL W
Jan 17, 2024-25	TOR 112 @ MIL 130	MIL -10.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Raptors 4, even 1

BucksBetterRaptors

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

TORSmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

TORSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

TORBig

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

Even

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

BucksBetterRaptors

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

TORBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

TOR4.3 #19

MIL		TOR
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.11 #13
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
33.9 #21	3-point %	32.0 #24
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
26.0 #20	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
5.7 #30	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Raptors