Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and 76ers
MIL	This season	PHI
1-5	Record	6-1
2-4	ATS	4-3
5-1	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 119–107 · win probability PHI 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

MIL 1, PHI 6 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, PHI 17.0%

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, PHI 70.8%

PHIBig

MIL offense vs PHI defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

PHI offense vs MIL defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, PHI 28.7. Allowed: MIL 29.7, PHI 28.5

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.9% and 39.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	@ TOR	L94–122LU
Nov 25	vs BKN	W125–108WO
Nov 27	@ DET	L111–137LO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs POR	W109–103WU
Nov 25	vs MIA	L109–119LU
Nov 27	@ IND	W114–109LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

MIL 11–8 PHIMIL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · MIL 11-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	MIL 116 @ PHI 127	PHI -12.5	MIL W
Apr 12, 2025-26	MIL 106 @ PHI 126	PHI -16.5	PHI W
Jan 27, 2025-26	MIL 122 @ PHI 139	PHI -10.5	PHI W
Dec 5, 2025-26	PHI 116 @ MIL 101	MIL +1.5	PHI W
Nov 20, 2025-26	PHI 123 @ MIL 114	MIL +1.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, 76ers 5, even 0

BucksBetter76ers

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

PHIBig

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

PHISmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

PHISmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

PHISmall

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

BucksBetter76ers

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

PHISmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

PHI5.0 #14

MIL		PHI
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.06 #22
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
33.9 #21	3-point %	34.0 #20
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
26.0 #20	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
5.7 #30	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

76ers