Fiserv Forum · at Bucks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 POR | This season | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-5 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 5-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects POR 121–110 · win probability POR 80%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
POR 6, MIL 1 · 2026-27 so far
PORBigPOR offense vs MIL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
PORBigShooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4
PORBigMIL offense vs POR defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORBigFree throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, MIL 23.9. Allowed: POR 27.8, MIL 29.7
PORBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: POR 14.8%, MIL 12.2%
PORSmallThree-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 51.5% and 45.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points
MILSmallHome court
MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, POR 3-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, MIL 74.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -11.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.8
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 121.2 · MIL 109.6
Win probability
POR 80%
1st half
Spread
POR -6.7
Total
115.5
Projected score
POR 61.1 · MIL 54.4
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
POR 6–4 MILPOR leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · POR has won the last 5 meetings · POR 8-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025-26 | MIL 99 @ POR 130 | POR -15.5 | POR W |
| Nov 24, 2025-26 | POR 115 @ MIL 103 | MIL -1.5 | POR W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | MIL 112 @ POR 125 | POR +5.5 | POR W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | POR 105 @ MIL 102 | MIL -11.5 | POR W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | MIL 116 @ POR 119 | POR +10.5 | POR W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Trail Blazers has the better starters
Position by position: Trail Blazers 4, Bucks 0, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterBucks
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
←PORBig
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
←PORSmall
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
←PORSmall
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
=Even
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
←PORSmall
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
Trail BlazersBetterBucks
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
←PORBig
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
←PORBig
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
←PORBig
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
←PORBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
←PORBig
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
POR120.6 #4MIL113.0 #17Points per possession
POR1.16 #5MIL1.07 #20Pace (possessions)
POR103.5 #14MIL106.2 #4Shooting
Effective FG%
POR56.2 #4MIL52.0 #213-point %
POR35.3 #12MIL33.9 #213-point attempt rate
POR51.5 #1MIL45.9 #8Free throw rate
POR35.9 #3MIL23.9 #25Possessions
Turnover rate
POR14.6 #9MIL15.8 #18Offensive rebound rate
POR27.6 #14MIL29.7 #8Assists per game
POR26.2 #17MIL26.0 #20Defense
Points allowed
POR109.2 #10MIL126.2 #28Points allowed per possession
POR1.06 #10MIL1.18 #28Opponent effective FG%
POR51.3 #8MIL55.4 #24Opponent 3-point %
POR32.1 #8MIL34.9 #14Turnovers forced
POR14.8 #20MIL12.2 #30Defensive rebound rate
POR77.3 #3MIL74.2 #10Steals per game
POR8.6 #18MIL5.7 #30Blocks per game
POR4.2 #21MIL4.0 #27| POR | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.6 #4 | Points per game | 113.0 #17 |
| 1.16 #5 | Points per possession | 1.07 #20 |
| 103.5 #14 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #4 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.2 #4 | Effective FG% | 52.0 #21 |
| 35.3 #12 | 3-point % | 33.9 #21 |
| 51.5 #1 | 3-point attempt rate | 45.9 #8 |
| 35.9 #3 | Free throw rate | 23.9 #25 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.6 #9 | Turnover rate | 15.8 #18 |
| 27.6 #14 | Offensive rebound rate | 29.7 #8 |
| 26.2 #17 | Assists per game | 26.0 #20 |
| Defense | ||
| 109.2 #10 | Points allowed | 126.2 #28 |
| 1.06 #10 | Points allowed per possession | 1.18 #28 |
| 51.3 #8 | Opponent effective FG% | 55.4 #24 |
| 32.1 #8 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.9 #14 |
| 14.8 #20 | Turnovers forced | 12.2 #30 |
| 77.3 #3 | Defensive rebound rate | 74.2 #10 |
| 8.6 #18 | Steals per game | 5.7 #30 |
| 4.2 #21 | Blocks per game | 4.0 #27 |
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.