New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 19, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Timberwolves
NY	This season	MIN
2-4	Record	4-3
1-5	ATS	6-1
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 114–108 · win probability MIN 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

NY 1, MIN 6 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

MINBig

NY offense vs MIN defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 43.2% and 42.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

MINBig

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: NY 13.2%, MIN 15.6%

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

NYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, MIN 75.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, MIN 26.1. Allowed: NY 25.9, MIN 28.9

Even

MIN offense vs NY defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NY away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs POR	W127–97WO
Nov 22	vs IND	W136–110WO
Nov 25	vs CLE	W130–93WO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs MEM	W117–110LU
Nov 23	vs BKN	L107–123LO
Nov 25	@ OKC	L103–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 5–5 MINSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 23, 2025-26	NY 104 @ MIN 115	MIN -7.5	MIN W
Nov 5, 2025-26	MIN 114 @ NY 137	NY -3.5	NY W
Jan 17, 2024-25	MIN 116 @ NY 99	NY -2.5	MIN W
Dec 19, 2024-25	NY 133 @ MIN 107	MIN -3.5	NY W
Jan 1, 2023-24	MIN 106 @ NY 112	NY +1.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 1, Timberwolves 3, even 1

KnicksBetterTimberwolves

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

Even

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

MINSmall

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

MINSmall

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

MINSmall

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

KnicksBetterTimberwolves

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

Even

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

MIN4.3 #20

NY		MIN
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.13 #8
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
35.2 #13	3-point %	37.6 #6
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
26.2 #18	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
7.3 #23	Steals per game	9.0 #13
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Timberwolves