Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineLAL -3.5no move

Total238.5no move

Season records: Trail Blazers and Lakers
POR	This season	LAL
4-1	Record	5-2
3-2	ATS	4-3
2-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 116–116 · win probability LAL 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

LAL -3.5

no move since the open

Total

238.5

model 232.3 · Under by 6

Model edge

POR by 3

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 3, LAL 2 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, LAL 67.4%

Context

Schedule so far

POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORSmall

POR offense vs LAL defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

LAL offense vs POR defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, POR 3-0 away

PORSmall

Rest

POR 6 days since its last game, LAL 5

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: POR 35.9, LAL 37.2. Allowed: POR 27.8, LAL 30.7

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

Even

Three-pointers

POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 51.5% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: POR 14.8%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	873	63%	49%	52%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 235 to 239.5	531	68%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-0
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: POR away, as underdog; LAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs SA	L95–114LU
Nov 10	vs OKC	L95–124LU
Nov 11	vs OKC	L95–124LU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ DET	L110–113LU
Nov 9	@ ATL	W141–116WO
Nov 11	@ MIL	L101–105LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

POR 8–11 LALLAL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · POR has won the last 2 meetings · POR 9-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 27, 2026-27	POR 136 @ LAL 129	LAL -1.5	POR W
Jan 17, 2025-26	LAL 116 @ POR 132	POR -3.5	POR W
Nov 3, 2025-26	LAL 123 @ POR 115	POR -10.5	LAL W
Oct 27, 2025-26	POR 122 @ LAL 108	LAL +3.5	POR W
Apr 13, 2024-25	LAL 81 @ POR 109	POR -5.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Trail Blazers 2, Lakers 2, even 1

Trail BlazersBetterLakers

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

Even

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

PORSmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

LALSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

PORSmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

Trail BlazersBetterLakers

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

PORSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

LALSmall

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

PORBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPOR betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

POR120.6 #4

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

POR1.16 #5

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

POR103.5 #14

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

POR56.2 #4

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

POR35.3 #12

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

POR51.5 #1

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

POR35.9 #3

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

POR14.6 #9

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

POR27.6 #14

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

POR26.2 #17

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

POR109.2 #10

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

POR1.06 #10

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

POR51.3 #8

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

POR32.1 #8

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

POR14.8 #20

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

POR77.3 #3

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

POR8.6 #18

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

POR4.2 #21

LAL6.7 #3

POR		LAL
Scoring
120.6 #4	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.16 #5	Points per possession	1.18 #2
103.5 #14	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
56.2 #4	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
35.3 #12	3-point %	38.9 #4
51.5 #1	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
35.9 #3	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
14.6 #9	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
27.6 #14	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
26.2 #17	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
109.2 #10	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.06 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
51.3 #8	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
32.1 #8	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
14.8 #20	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
77.3 #3	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
8.6 #18	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.2 #21	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

6 days since their last game.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

5 days since their last game.

Trail Blazers @ Lakers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Trail Blazers

Lakers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Trail Blazers

Lakers