1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. UAPB @ UCLA
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at UCLA Bruins

Pauley Pavilion · at UCLA
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#26UCLAUCLA AP #22
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonUCLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCLA 93–56 · win probability UCLA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

UAPB 0, UCLA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCLABig
UAPB offense vs UCLA defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
UCLABig
UCLA offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCLABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, UCLA 18.5%
UCLABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points
UCLABig
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 37.1% and 35.5% of their shots
UCLASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UCLASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, UCLA 66.7%
UCLASmall
Home court
UCLA at home. This season: UCLA 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, UCLA 34.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCLA -36.6—
Total—149.2—
Projected score—UAPB 56.3 · UCLA 92.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCLA -21.7—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreUAPB 24.1 · UCLA 45.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UCLA has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, UCLA 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterUCLA
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
UCLABig
G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
AR-Pine BluffBetterUCLA
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
UCLABig
UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
UCLABig
UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
UCLABig
Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
UCLABig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
UCLA
Guards
J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew
Forwards
E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew
Centers
X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBUCLA
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game77.0 #115
1.04 #277Points per possession1.16 #48
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)66.5 #297
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%53.4 #85
33.6 #1903-point %37.9 #19
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate35.5 #259
38.4 #91Free throw rate33.1 #237
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate13.4 #14
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate31.1 #162
14.1 #136Assists per game16.1 #45
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed71.1 #75
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.07 #129
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%50.4 #120
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %32.0 #64
16.4 #192Turnovers forced18.5 #76
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate66.7 #304
6.8 #142Steals per game6.7 #156
2.9 #244Blocks per game3.0 #218
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn57–73
  • Wvs UCF75–71
  • Lvs Purdue66–73
  • Wvs Michigan St88–84
  • Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.