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NBA · Mon, Nov 9

Pelicans @ Warriors

Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
#22NOPelicans
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NOThis seasonGS
2-4Record4-3
4-2ATS5-2
4-2O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 121–116 · win probability GS 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 236.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

NO 0, GS 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBig
GS offense vs NO defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
GSSmall
Three-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 32.8% and 47.1% of their shots
GSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, GS 16.7%. Forced: NO 16.3%, GS 17.6%
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, GS 70.4%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, GS 28.8. Allowed: NO 30.6, GS 27.3
Even
NO offense vs GS defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -5.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model236.9
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 115.6 · GS 121.3
Win probability
GS 66%
1st half
Spread
GS -3.1
Total
118.3
Projected score
NO 57.6 · GS 60.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 1, Warriors 3, even 1
PelicansBetterWarriors
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45
GSSmall
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19
GSBig
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81
NOBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52
GSSmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
PelicansBetterWarriors
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Even
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
GSBig
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
GSBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
NOBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pelicans
Guards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NOGS
Scoring
119.7 #7Points per game117.7 #11
1.10 #15Points per possession1.17 #3
108.0 #2Pace (possessions)101.4 #25
Shooting
55.1 #9Effective FG%55.3 #8
31.2 #253-point %40.0 #2
32.8 #303-point attempt rate47.1 #5
35.3 #4Free throw rate28.8 #15
Possessions
17.4 #26Turnover rate16.7 #22
24.3 #25Offensive rebound rate33.2 #1
25.5 #21Assists per game27.4 #10
Defense
117.8 #24Points allowed114.9 #16
1.09 #16Points allowed per possession1.13 #21
54.2 #21Opponent effective FG%56.0 #25
30.5 #5Opponent 3-point %35.2 #16
16.3 #10Turnovers forced17.6 #5
76.4 #6Defensive rebound rate70.4 #23
13.7 #1Steals per game9.1 #11
4.8 #16Blocks per game4.1 #24
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141
  • L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.