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NBA · Mon, Nov 16

Warriors @ Pelicans

Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game
#13GSWarriors
@
#22NOPelicans
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonNO
4-3Record2-4
5-2ATS4-2
4-3O/U4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 119–118 · win probability GS 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 236.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 3, NO 1 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBig
GS offense vs NO defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points
GSSmall
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 47.1% and 32.8% of their shots
GSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, NO 17.4%. Forced: GS 17.6%, NO 16.3%
NOSmall
Home court
NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, NO 76.4%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, NO 35.3. Allowed: GS 27.3, NO 30.6
Even
NO offense vs GS defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -1.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model236.7
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 119 · NO 117.7
Win probability
GS 54%
1st half
Spread
GS -0.8
Total
118.2
Projected score
GS 59.5 · NO 58.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Warriors 2, Pelicans 2, even 1
WarriorsBetterPelicans
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
GSBig
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
NOSmall
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
NOBig
F T. Murphy14.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 60
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
Even
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
GSSmall
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52
WarriorsBetterPelicans
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
GSBig
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
Even
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
GSBig
Backcourt-3.3 · 1 player
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
NOBig
Frontcourt+19.9 · 4 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Pelicans
Guards
J. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minT. Murphy32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
D. MurrayDay-To-DayJ. PooleOutY. MissiOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
GSNO
Scoring
117.7Points per game119.7
1.17Points per possession1.10
101.4Pace (possessions)108.0
Shooting
55.3Effective FG%55.1
40.03-point %31.2
47.13-point attempt rate32.8
28.8Free throw rate35.3
Possessions
16.7Turnover rate17.4
33.2Offensive rebound rate24.3
27.4Assists per game25.5
Defense
114.9Points allowed117.8
1.13Points allowed per possession1.09
56.0Opponent effective FG%54.2
35.2Opponent 3-point %30.5
17.6Turnovers forced16.3
70.4Defensive rebound rate76.4
9.1Steals per game13.7
4.1Blocks per game4.8
GSNO
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game119.7 #7
1.17 #3Points per possession1.10 #15
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)108.0 #2
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%55.1 #9
40.0 #23-point %31.2 #25
47.1 #53-point attempt rate32.8 #30
28.8 #15Free throw rate35.3 #4
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate17.4 #26
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate24.3 #25
27.4 #10Assists per game25.5 #21
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed117.8 #24
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.09 #16
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%54.2 #21
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %30.5 #5
17.6 #5Turnovers forced16.3 #10
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate76.4 #6
9.1 #11Steals per game13.7 #1
4.1 #24Blocks per game4.8 #16
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Hawks121–99
  • Wvs Kings132–120
  • Lvs Nuggets91–104
  • L@ Nuggets135–141
  • L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.