Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
Line
SA -10.5no move
SA -10.5no moveTotal235.5no move
 GS | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 5-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 120–110 · win probability SA 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SA -10.5
no move since the open
Total
235.5
model 229.9 · Under by 5.5
Model edge
GS by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
GS 2, SA 3 · 2026-27 so far
GSBigThree-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 47.1% and 39.0% of their shots
SABigSA offense vs GS defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBigRecent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, SA 13.1%. Forced: GS 17.6%, SA 15.7%
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
Even
GS offense vs SA defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, SA 75.8%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, SA 24.5. Allowed: GS 27.3, SA 21.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 10 to 14.5 | 501 | 82% | 49% | 48% |
| Conference games at this spread | 479 | 84% | 51% | 52% |
| Games with a total of 235 to 239.5 | 531 | 68% | 51% | 50% |
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
MarketSA -10.5
ModelSA -9.6
Model edgeGS +0.9
Total
Market235.5
Model229.9
Model edgeUnder 5.6
Projected score
GS 110.2 · SA 119.8
Win probability
SA 75%
1st half
Spread
SA -5.3
Total
115.1
Projected score
GS 54.9 · SA 60.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenSA -10.5
no move
NowSA -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open235.5
no move
Now235.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened SA -10.5 · unchangedmodel SA -9.5
model SA -9.5
Opened 235.5 · unchangedmodel 230
model 230
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
GS 11–7 SAGS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · GS 8-10 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025-26 | SA 127 @ GS 113 | GS +14.5 | GS W |
| Feb 11, 2025-26 | SA 126 @ GS 113 | GS +7.5 | SA W |
| Nov 14, 2025-26 | GS 109 @ SA 108 | SA -2.5 | GS W |
| Nov 12, 2025-26 | GS 125 @ SA 120 | SA -3.5 | GS W |
| Apr 9, 2024-25 | SA 114 @ GS 111 | GS -17.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Warriors 0, Spurs 3, even 2
WarriorsBetterSpurs
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
→SASmall
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
=Even
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
→SABig
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
=Even
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
→SASmall
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
WarriorsBetterSpurs
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
=Even
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
→SASmall
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
→SABig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
GS117.7 #11SA117.3 #12Points per possession
GS1.17 #3SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
GS101.4 #25SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
GS55.3 #8SA53.3 #163-point %
GS40.0 #2SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
GS47.1 #5SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
GS28.8 #15SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
GS16.7 #22SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
GS33.2 #1SA27.2 #16Assists per game
GS27.4 #10SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
GS114.9 #16SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
GS1.13 #21SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
GS56.0 #25SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
GS35.2 #16SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
GS17.6 #5SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
GS70.4 #23SA75.8 #7Steals per game
GS9.1 #11SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
GS4.1 #24SA7.0 #1| GS | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.7 #11 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.17 #3 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 101.4 #25 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.3 #8 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 40.0 #2 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 47.1 #5 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 28.8 #15 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.7 #22 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 33.2 #1 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 27.4 #10 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 114.9 #16 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.13 #21 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 56.0 #25 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 35.2 #16 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 17.6 #5 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 70.4 #23 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 9.1 #11 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 4.1 #24 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.