1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. CONN vs MICH
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

UConn Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines

TD Garden · Neutral site
#6CONNUConn AP #4
vs
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CONNThis seasonMICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 75–73 · win probability MICH 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

CONN 1, MICH 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CONN 29.9, MICH 38.0. Allowed: CONN 40.7, MICH 26.0
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: CONN plays 66.1 a game (307th fastest), MICH 71.7 (48th). Faster games mean more points
CONNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CONN 16.4%, MICH 16.3%. Forced: CONN 17.8%, MICH 15.2%
MICHSmall
Three-pointers
CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%; MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 40.9% and 41.5% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7; MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CONN 51%, MICH 38%. Transfers in: CONN 7, MICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
CONN offense vs MICH defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
MICH offense vs CONN defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CONN 35.7%, MICH 34.7%. Defensive: CONN 71.2%, MICH 71.8%
Context
Schedule so far
CONN has played the 4th-hardest schedule, MICH the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -1.8—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—CONN 73.3 · MICH 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -0.9—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreCONN 34.2 · MICH 35.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: UConn 0, Michigan 1, even 4
UConnBetterMichigan
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
Even
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
Even
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
Even
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
Even
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
MICHBig
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
UConnBetterMichigan
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Even
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
Even
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
CONNSmall
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
MICHSmall
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCONN betterMICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CONNMICH
Scoring
76.6 #129Points per game87.3 #4
1.16 #52Points per possession1.21 #8
66.1 #307Pace (possessions)71.7 #48
Shooting
54.3 #59Effective FG%58.3 #8
34.4 #1503-point %36.8 #33
40.9 #1493-point attempt rate41.5 #141
29.9 #313Free throw rate38.0 #102
Possessions
16.4 #163Turnover rate16.3 #157
35.7 #30Offensive rebound rate34.7 #55
18.1 #9Assists per game18.6 #5
Defense
65.2 #6Points allowed69.5 #55
0.99 #17Points allowed per possession0.97 #8
45.7 #7Opponent effective FG%44.6 #1
30.1 #8Opponent 3-point %30.4 #18
17.8 #107Turnovers forced15.2 #270
71.2 #99Defensive rebound rate71.8 #70
6.8 #143Steals per game5.6 #286
5.0 #15Blocks per game6.0 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.