Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Iowa State Cyclones: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ETHilton Coliseum · at Iowa State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Miss and Iowa State
USM	This season	ISU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 90–58 · win probability ISU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

USM 0, ISU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ISUBig

Three-pointers

USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%; ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 28.7% and 38.8% of their shots

ISUBig

ISU offense vs USM defense

Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings

ISUBig

USM offense vs ISU defense

Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

ISUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: USM 49.0 and allows 51.4; ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8

ISUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USM 18.4%, ISU 14.9%. Forced: USM 17.8%, ISU 22.6%

Context

Schedule so far

USM has played the 184th-hardest schedule, ISU the 38th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ISUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: USM 43.2, ISU 34.5. Allowed: USM 43.6, ISU 28.1

ISUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USM 23%, ISU 57%. Transfers in: USM 3, ISU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ISUSmall

Home court

ISU at home. This season: ISU 0-0 at home, USM 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: USM plays 70.1 a game (113th fastest), ISU 68.5 (204th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USM 32.5%, ISU 35.1%. Defensive: USM 71.2%, ISU 71.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ISU -31.6	—
Total	—	148.0	—
Projected score	—	USM 58.2 · ISU 89.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ISU -18.6	—
1H total	69.2	—
1H projected score	USM 25.3 · ISU 43.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WWWWL	17-16	52%	7-8	—
ISU WWWWL	22-15	59%	9-8	—

Venue/role: USM away; ISU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOOOO	20-13	61%	17-16
ISU UOOUU	15-22	41%	29-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
ISU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs JKST	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ TXST	W81–77WO
Nov 17	vs UTA	No recent meeting

Iowa State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs SOU	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs NIA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs SDSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Miss

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

L L L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1361%

O O U O U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U O U U O U O U O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsUNF	W 92-83	-9.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsUTM	W 70-60	+1.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 3	@RAD	W 82-75	+3.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 6	@MIA	L 64-88	+19.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 8	vsGRAM	W 68-60	-8.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsMISS	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsUL	W 62-54	-11.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsARST	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 29	@LSU	L 62-90	+21.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 1	@ULM	W 87-73	-9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	@UL	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsTXST	W 80-70	-2.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsULM	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 14	@TROY	L 65-91	+8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 156
Jan 17	@TXST	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@GAST	L 62-69	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	@CCU	L 67-85	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsAPP	L 63-70	+1.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsJMU	W 73-65	-1.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	@MRSH	L 77-81	+10.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 7	vsKENT	W 66-65	+4.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 12	vsUSA	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	135.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsTROY	W 69-65	+5.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsODU	W 86-81	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@ARST	L 84-89	+9.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 173
Feb 27	@USA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 123
Mar 5	vsJMU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsTXST	W 81-77	+1.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsAPP	W 86-73	+4.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsTROY	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

UNF

W 92-83

−0.5

UTM

W 70-60

+11.5

RAD

W 82-75

+10.5

MIA

L 64-88

−4.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−0.5

MISS

L 67-71

+8.5

W 62-54

−3.5

ARST

L 86-93

−5.5

LSU

L 62-90

−6.5

ULM

W 87-73

+4.5

W 74-67

+3.5

TXST

W 80-70

+7.5

ULM

W 70-60

−4.5

TROY

L 65-91

−17.5

TXST

L 67-74

−4.5

GAST

L 62-69

−5.5

CCU

L 67-85

−15.5

APP

L 63-70

−5.5

JMU

W 73-65

+6.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+6.5

KENT

W 66-65

+5.5

USA

L 78-84

−7.5

TROY

W 69-65

+9.5

ODU

W 86-81

+0.5

ARST

L 84-89

+4.5

USA

W 68-55

+17.5

JMU

W 86-80

+8.5

TXST

W 81-77

+5.5

APP

W 86-73

+17.5

TROY

L 70-78

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

UNF

W 92-83

+20.5

UTM

W 70-60

−16.5

RAD

W 82-75

+4.5

MIA

L 64-88

+6.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−14.5

MISS

L 67-71

−0.5

W 62-54

−16.5

ARST

L 86-93

+23.5

LSU

L 62-90

−2.5

ULM

W 87-73

+7.5

W 74-67

+11.5

TXST

W 80-70

+5.5

ULM

W 70-60

−25.5

TROY

L 65-91

+10.5

TXST

L 67-74

+0.5

GAST

L 62-69

−13.5

CCU

L 67-85

+10.5

APP

L 63-70

−1.5

JMU

W 73-65

−5.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+9.5

KENT

W 66-65

−19.5

USA

L 78-84

+26.5

TROY

W 69-65

−10.5

ODU

W 86-81

+19.5

ARST

L 84-89

+14.5

USA

W 68-55

−18.5

JMU

W 86-80

+22.5

TXST

W 81-77

+17.5

APP

W 86-73

+21.5

TROY

L 70-78

+5.5

over 20under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa State

37 games played

Straight up

29-8

78% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-878%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W L W W L W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W W W W L L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U O O O O U O O U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U U U O U U O U O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFDU	W 88-50	-37.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 6	vsGRAM	W 102-62	-33.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 10	vsMSST	W 96-80	-5.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 17	vsSTO	W 96-57	-40.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Nov 24	vsSJU	W 83-82	-2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 25	vsCREI	W 78-60	-9.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 26	vsSYR	W 95-64	-10.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 3	vsALCN	W 132-68	-42.5	W +21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 6	@PUR	W 81-58	+4.5	W +27.5	154.5	U 139
Dec 11	vsIOWA	W 66-62	-11.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 14	vsEIU	W 78-53	-43.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 21	vsLBSU	W 91-60	-37.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 151
Dec 29	vsHCU	W 89-61	-35.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 2	vsWVU	W 80-59	-16.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 7	@BAY	W 70-60	-3.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsOKST	W 83-71	-19.5	L −7.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 13	@KU	L 63-84	-3.5	L −24.5	152.5	U 147
Jan 17	@CIN	L 70-79	-5.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 20	vsUCF	W 87-57	-14.5	W +15.5	156.5	U 144
Jan 24	@OKST	W 84-71	-10.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 155
Jan 29	vsCOLO	W 97-67	-17.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 164
Feb 1	@KSU	W 95-61	-12.5	W +21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	vsBAY	W 72-69	-14.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 141
Feb 10	@TCU	L 55-62	-7.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 117
Feb 14	vsKU	W 74-56	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 130
Feb 16	vsHOU	W 70-67	-2.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	@BYU	L 69-79	-2.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 148
Feb 24	@UTAH	W 75-59	-14.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 28	vsTTU	L 73-82	-10.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 155
Mar 2	@ARIZ	L 57-73	+7.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsASU	W 86-65	-16.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 151
Mar 11	vsASU	W 91-42	-13.5	W +35.5	148.5	U 133
Mar 12	vsTTU	W 75-53	-7.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsARIZ	L 80-82	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 20	vsTNST	W 108-74	-24.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 182
Mar 22	vsUK	W 82-63	-5.5	W +13.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 27	vsTENN	L 62-76	-2.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

+0.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+6.5

MSST

W 96-80

+10.5

STO

W 96-57

−1.5

SJU

W 83-82

−1.5

CREI

W 78-60

+8.5

SYR

W 95-64

+20.5

ALCN

W 132-68

+21.5

PUR

W 81-58

+27.5

IOWA

W 66-62

−7.5

EIU

W 78-53

−18.5

LBSU

W 91-60

−6.5

HCU

W 89-61

−7.5

WVU

W 80-59

+4.5

BAY

W 70-60

+6.5

OKST

W 83-71

−7.5

L 63-84

−24.5

CIN

L 70-79

−14.5

UCF

W 87-57

+15.5

OKST

W 84-71

+2.5

COLO

W 97-67

+12.5

KSU

W 95-61

+21.5

BAY

W 72-69

−11.5

TCU

L 55-62

−14.5

W 74-56

+10.5

HOU

W 70-67

+0.5

BYU

L 69-79

−12.5

UTAH

W 75-59

+1.5

TTU

L 73-82

−19.5

ARIZ

L 57-73

−8.5

ASU

W 86-65

+4.5

ASU

W 91-42

+35.5

TTU

W 75-53

+14.5

ARIZ

L 80-82

+1.5

TNST

W 108-74

+9.5

W 82-63

+13.5

TENN

L 62-76

−16.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FDU

W 88-50

−9.5

GRAM

W 102-62

+19.5

MSST

W 96-80

+25.5

STO

W 96-57

+6.5

SJU

W 83-82

+6.5

CREI

W 78-60

−14.5

SYR

W 95-64

+13.5

ALCN

W 132-68

+48.5

PUR

W 81-58

−15.5

IOWA

W 66-62

−13.5

EIU

W 78-53

−13.5

LBSU

W 91-60

+1.5

HCU

W 89-61

+4.5

WVU

W 80-59

−3.5

BAY

W 70-60

−25.5

OKST

W 83-71

−11.5

L 63-84

−5.5

CIN

L 70-79

+7.5

UCF

W 87-57

−12.5

OKST

W 84-71

−7.5

COLO

W 97-67

+11.5

KSU

W 95-61

−0.5

BAY

W 72-69

−10.5

TCU

L 55-62

−30.5

W 74-56

−17.5

HOU

W 70-67

+2.5

BYU

L 69-79

−6.5

UTAH

W 75-59

−10.5

TTU

L 73-82

+9.5

ARIZ

L 57-73

−19.5

ASU

W 86-65

+2.5

ASU

W 91-42

−15.5

TTU

W 75-53

−15.5

ARIZ

L 80-82

+17.5

TNST

W 108-74

+34.5

W 82-63

−1.5

TENN

L 62-76

−1.5

over 15under 22avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Miss 1, Iowa State 4, even 0

Southern MissBetterIowa State

G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

ISUSmall

G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84

G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90

USMSmall

G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6

ISUBig

G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98

F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53

ISUBig

G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39

ISUBig

G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79

Southern MissBetterIowa State

USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3

ISUBig

ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3

USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3

ISUBig

ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

ISUBig

Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

ISUBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUSM betterISU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Southern Miss

Guards

J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew

Forwards

C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew

Centers

F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew

Iowa State

Guards

R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min

Forwards

T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USM73.9 #197

ISU82.0 #32

Points per possession

USM1.05 #242

ISU1.19 #20

Pace (possessions)

USM70.1 #113

ISU68.5 #204

Shooting

Effective FG%

USM49.0 #289

ISU56.2 #20

3-point %

USM28.9 #355

ISU38.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

USM28.7 #358

ISU38.8 #196

Free throw rate

USM43.2 #18

ISU34.5 #194

Possessions

Turnover rate

USM18.4 #290

ISU14.9 #58

Offensive rebound rate

USM32.5 #103

ISU35.1 #45

Assists per game

USM11.2 #330

ISU17.4 #16

Defense

Points allowed

USM74.8 #183

ISU65.6 #9

Points allowed per possession

USM1.07 #127

ISU0.96 #4

Opponent effective FG%

USM51.4 #177

ISU49.8 #92

Opponent 3-point %

USM34.5 #217

ISU32.0 #63

Turnovers forced

USM17.8 #109

ISU22.6 #4

Defensive rebound rate

USM71.2 #97

ISU71.4 #85

Steals per game

USM7.3 #98

ISU9.0 #9

Blocks per game

USM3.6 #127

ISU2.6 #289

USM		ISU
Scoring
73.9 #197	Points per game	82.0 #32
1.05 #242	Points per possession	1.19 #20
70.1 #113	Pace (possessions)	68.5 #204
Shooting
49.0 #289	Effective FG%	56.2 #20
28.9 #355	3-point %	38.3 #12
28.7 #358	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #196
43.2 #18	Free throw rate	34.5 #194
Possessions
18.4 #290	Turnover rate	14.9 #58
32.5 #103	Offensive rebound rate	35.1 #45
11.2 #330	Assists per game	17.4 #16
Defense
74.8 #183	Points allowed	65.6 #9
1.07 #127	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #4
51.4 #177	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #92
34.5 #217	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #63
17.8 #109	Turnovers forced	22.6 #4
71.2 #97	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #85
7.3 #98	Steals per game	9.0 #9
3.6 #127	Blocks per game	2.6 #289

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy70–78
Wvs App State86–73
Wvs Texas St81–77
Wvs James Madison86–80
W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee62–76
Wvs Kentucky82–63
Wvs Tennessee St108–74
Lvs Arizona80–82
Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Iowa State Cyclones

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Miss

Iowa State

Iowa State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Southern Miss

Iowa State