App State Mountaineers vs Merrimack Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Live nowRock Hill Sports & Event Center · Neutral site

#248APPApp State

0–0

Live

#236MRMKMerrimack

LineMRMK -2.5moved 1 toward APP

Total133.5down 1 from 134.5

Season records: App State and Merrimack
APP	This season	MRMK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRMK 67–66 · win probability MRMK 54%

Loading the game…

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenMRMK -3.5

1 → APP

NowMRMK -2.5

1 pt toward APP

Total

Open134.5

▼ 1

Now133.5

Down 1 since the open

Moneyline

APP -170 · MRMK +142

Line movement

Median of 2 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened MRMK -3.5 · closed MRMK -2.5 · moved 1 toward APPmodel MRMK -1

model MRMK -1

Openline modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (the sportsbooks’ median). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money · at tip-off

APP +2.5Spread

MRMK -2.5

Bets

61%39%

Money

70%30%

Over 133.5TotalUnder 133.5

Bets

50%50%

Money

50%50%

APPWinner

MRMK

Bets

20%80%

Money

30%70%

Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on APP

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Last numbers before tip-off. ⓘ

Books

2 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	APP	MRMK	Over	Under	APP	MRMK
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	133.5-115	133.5-105	—	—
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2.5-106	+2.5-106	133.5-113	133.5-103	—	—

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	MRMK -2.5	MRMK -1.1	APP +1.4
Total	133.5	133.1	Under 0.4
Projected score	—	APP 66 · MRMK 67.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -0.6	—
1H total	62.3	—
1H projected score	APP 30.9 · MRMK 31.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
APP LLWLL	17-13	57%	1-2	6-3
MRMK LLWLL	20-14	59%	2-4	11-7

Venue/role: APP neutral site, as underdog; MRMK neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UOOUO	12-18	40%	17-13
MRMK UOUUU	12-22	35%	23-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
MRMK	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

App State

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-18

40% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L W L W W L L L W W W L W L W L W L W W W W W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1840%

O U U O U U U U U O U U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CMU	L 66-82	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	vsNCCU	W 76-54	-10.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 11	@OSU	L 53-75	+23.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	@DART	W 85-77	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsCLT	W 65-63	-1.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 128
Nov 24	vsELON	L 53-88	-5.5	L −40.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 26	@MER	L 67-75	+6.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 30	vsUNCA	L 55-67	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 11	@ECU	W 67-54	+4.5	W +17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsHPU	W 86-78	+12.5	W +20.5	144.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsCCU	W 67-49	-4.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsGAST	L 63-70	-7.5	L −14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@ODU	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 154
Jan 3	@MRSH	L 81-88	+7.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 169
Jan 8	@GAST	W 52-50	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	@CCU	L 62-67	-1.5	L −6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 15	vsJMU	W 80-65	-2.5	W +12.5	133.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsODU	L 73-75	-7.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 22	vsUL	W 72-58	-9.5	W +4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 23	vsULM	W 59-43	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 102
Jan 29	@USM	W 70-63	-1.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TROY	W 66-44	+7.5	W +29.5	137.5	U 110
Feb 4	vsUSA	W 65-57	-5.5	W +2.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 7	vsEMU	W 65-60	-7.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 125
Feb 11	@GASO	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	@JMU	L 58-69	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsMRSH	L 93-94	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 187
Feb 21	vsGASO	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 27	@TXST	L 57-60	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 117
Mar 7	vsUSM	L 73-86	-4.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

−14.5

NCCU

W 76-54

+11.5

OSU

L 53-75

+1.5

DART

W 85-77

+6.5

CLT

W 65-63

+0.5

ELON

L 53-88

−40.5

MER

L 67-75

−1.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−10.5

ECU

W 67-54

+17.5

HPU

W 86-78

+20.5

CCU

W 67-49

+13.5

GAST

L 63-70

−14.5

ODU

W 81-73

+9.5

MRSH

L 81-88

+0.5

GAST

W 52-50

+0.5

CCU

L 62-67

−6.5

JMU

W 80-65

+12.5

ODU

L 73-75

−9.5

W 72-58

+4.5

ULM

W 59-43

−0.5

USM

W 70-63

+5.5

TROY

W 66-44

+29.5

USA

W 65-57

+2.5

EMU

W 65-60

−2.5

GASO

W 81-65

+14.5

JMU

L 58-69

−12.5

MRSH

L 93-94

−4.5

GASO

W 89-74

+7.5

TXST

L 57-60

−4.5

USM

L 73-86

−17.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

+5.5

NCCU

W 76-54

−6.5

OSU

L 53-75

−19.5

DART

W 85-77

+21.5

CLT

W 65-63

−4.5

ELON

L 53-88

−2.5

MER

L 67-75

−0.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−15.5

ECU

W 67-54

−9.5

HPU

W 86-78

+19.5

CCU

W 67-49

−21.5

GAST

L 63-70

−4.5

ODU

W 81-73

+17.5

MRSH

L 81-88

+27.5

GAST

W 52-50

−38.5

CCU

L 62-67

−4.5

JMU

W 80-65

+11.5

ODU

L 73-75

+7.5

W 72-58

+5.5

ULM

W 59-43

−42.5

USM

W 70-63

−1.5

TROY

W 66-44

−27.5

USA

W 65-57

−9.5

EMU

W 65-60

−6.5

GASO

W 81-65

+2.5

JMU

L 58-69

−7.5

MRSH

L 93-94

+43.5

GASO

W 89-74

+15.5

TXST

L 57-60

−18.5

USM

L 73-86

+21.5

over 12under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Merrimack

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

L L L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L L L W W W L L W L W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

U O U O O U U O U U U U U O U U U O O U U U U O U O U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126
Dec 4	vsRID	W 68-66	-9.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsFAIR	W 74-63	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PRIN	W 59-56	+2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 14	@UVM	L 59-66	+6.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 29	@SHU	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	vsMSM	W 75-65	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	vsMAN	W 73-66	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	@SIE	W 63-59	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@SPU	L 63-76	+1.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsQUIN	W 83-71	+1.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 19	@MRST	W 68-55	+6.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 22	@IONA	L 60-61	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 121
Jan 24	vsSPU	W 67-59	-2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 126
Feb 1	vsSHU	W 75-58	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	@MSM	W 87-70	-2.5	W +14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@RID	W 73-47	-8.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsMRST	W 81-56	-2.5	W +22.5	128.5	O 137
Feb 15	@QUIN	W 56-49	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 105
Feb 20	vsSIE	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsIONA	W 88-86	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 174
Feb 27	@CAN	L 62-67	-8.5	L −13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	@NIA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	126.5	O 139
Mar 6	vsSHU	W 70-48	-6.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 118
Mar 8	vsMRST	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	128.5	U 115
Mar 10	vsSIE	L 54-64	-2.5	L −12.5	128.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

RID

W 68-66

−7.5

FAIR

W 74-63

+7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

+5.5

UVM

L 59-66

−0.5

SHU

W 80-72

+9.5

MSM

W 75-65

+6.5

MAN

W 73-66

+0.5

SIE

W 63-59

+9.5

SPU

L 63-76

−11.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+13.5

MRST

W 68-55

+19.5

IONA

L 60-61

−2.5

SPU

W 67-59

+5.5

SHU

W 75-58

+11.5

MSM

W 87-70

+14.5

RID

W 73-47

+17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+22.5

QUIN

W 56-49

+10.5

SIE

W 79-72

+4.5

IONA

W 88-86

−4.5

CAN

L 62-67

−13.5

NIA

W 73-66

−0.5

SHU

W 70-48

+15.5

MRST

W 58-57

−1.5

SIE

L 54-64

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

RID

W 68-66

−4.5

FAIR

W 74-63

−7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

−19.5

UVM

L 59-66

−11.5

SHU

W 80-72

+7.5

MSM

W 75-65

−1.5

MAN

W 73-66

−9.5

SIE

W 63-59

−10.5

SPU

L 63-76

+5.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+12.5

MRST

W 68-55

−10.5

IONA

L 60-61

−22.5

SPU

W 67-59

−8.5

SHU

W 75-58

−14.5

MSM

W 87-70

+22.5

RID

W 73-47

−17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+8.5

QUIN

W 56-49

−36.5

SIE

W 79-72

+17.5

IONA

W 88-86

+37.5

CAN

L 62-67

−0.5

NIA

W 73-66

+12.5

SHU

W 70-48

−25.5

MRST

W 58-57

−13.5

SIE

L 54-64

−10.5

over 12under 22avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: App State 1, Merrimack 1, even 3

App StateBetterMerrimack

G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30

MRMKSmall

G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15

Even

G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19

F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15

No call

G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37

APPSmall

F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16

C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30

App StateBetterMerrimack

APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6

MRMKBig

MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9

APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2

APPBig

MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3

Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

APPSmall

Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestAPP betterMRMK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

App State

Guards

H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew

Forwards

C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew

Centers

R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew

Merrimack

Guards

T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew

Forwards

T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

APP69.3 #295

MRMK68.5 #304

Points per possession

APP1.08 #187

MRMK1.06 #221

Pace (possessions)

APP64.3 #358

MRMK64.4 #357

Shooting

Effective FG%

APP49.9 #240

MRMK49.1 #288

3-point %

APP30.4 #335

MRMK32.7 #243

3-point attempt rate

APP45.9 #48

MRMK46.1 #46

Free throw rate

APP39.1 #77

MRMK38.2 #99

Possessions

Turnover rate

APP15.3 #87

MRMK14.8 #55

Offensive rebound rate

APP32.0 #123

MRMK24.8 #343

Assists per game

APP11.4 #318

MRMK12.4 #257

Defense

Points allowed

APP67.4 #25

MRMK66.5 #19

Points allowed per possession

APP1.05 #87

MRMK1.03 #62

Opponent effective FG%

APP47.5 #33

MRMK46.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

APP32.2 #71

MRMK30.3 #12

Turnovers forced

APP14.0 #336

MRMK20.4 #16

Defensive rebound rate

APP71.0 #106

MRMK60.1 #365

Steals per game

APP4.6 #351

MRMK8.2 #32

Blocks per game

APP3.4 #155

MRMK5.2 #13

APP		MRMK
Scoring
69.3 #295	Points per game	68.5 #304
1.08 #187	Points per possession	1.06 #221
64.3 #358	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #357
Shooting
49.9 #240	Effective FG%	49.1 #288
30.4 #335	3-point %	32.7 #243
45.9 #48	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #46
39.1 #77	Free throw rate	38.2 #99
Possessions
15.3 #87	Turnover rate	14.8 #55
32.0 #123	Offensive rebound rate	24.8 #343
11.4 #318	Assists per game	12.4 #257
Defense
67.4 #25	Points allowed	66.5 #19
1.05 #87	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #62
47.5 #33	Opponent effective FG%	46.7 #17
32.2 #71	Opponent 3-point %	30.3 #12
14.0 #336	Turnovers forced	20.4 #16
71.0 #106	Defensive rebound rate	60.1 #365
4.6 #351	Steals per game	8.2 #32
3.4 #155	Blocks per game	5.2 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss73–86
L@ Texas St57–60
Wvs GA Southern89–74
Lvs Marshall93–94
L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena54–64
Wvs Marist58–57
Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
W@ Niagara73–66
L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.