Queens University Royals at Oklahoma State Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ETGallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Queens University Royals and Oklahoma St
QUC	This season	OKST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKST 94–76 · win probability OKST 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 169.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKST has more of the edges

QUC 0, OKST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OKSTBig

OKST offense vs QUC defense

Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 331st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

QUC has played the 194th-hardest schedule, OKST the 60th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKSTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: QUC 35.4, OKST 39.4. Allowed: QUC 38.1, OKST 31.4

OKSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: QUC 30.2%, OKST 30.8%. Defensive: QUC 66.4%, OKST 69.7%

OKSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: QUC 0%, OKST 41%. Transfers in: QUC 0, OKST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

OKSTSmall

Home court

OKST at home. This season: OKST 0-0 at home, QUC 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: QUC 56.4 and allows 54.6; OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1

Even

Three-pointers

QUC hits 35.7% and allows 36.5%; OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 46.5% and 35.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: QUC plays 71.2 a game (65th fastest), OKST 74.8 (6th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: QUC 14.8%, OKST 15.7%. Forced: QUC 15.1%, OKST 15.7%

Even

QUC offense vs OKST defense

Offense 102nd of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OKST -18.8	—
Total	—	169.7	—
Projected score	—	QUC 75.5 · OKST 94.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OKST -11.1	—
1H total	79.2	—
1H projected score	QUC 34.1 · OKST 45.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LLWWL	15-19	44%	5-11	—
OKST WWWLL	16-19	46%	8-13	—

Venue/role: QUC away; OKST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC UUOOO	22-12	65%	20-14
OKST OOOOO	21-14	60%	20-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
OKST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Queens University Royals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ BYU	L55–99LU
Nov 14	vs WOF	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ LSU	No recent meeting

Oklahoma St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ TA&M	W87–63WU
Nov 16	vs CARK	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs MINN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-12

65% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1265%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O U U U O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	@JAX	W 77-51	-4.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	@UNF	W 89-82	-11.5	L −4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@FGCU	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	@STET	W 87-81	-10.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsUNA	W 87-62	-12.5	W +12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WGA	L 66-74	-7.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsCARK	L 90-100	-5.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	@BELL	L 75-78	-5.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsJAX	W 93-84	-8.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsUNF	W 91-72	-15.5	W +3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	vsAPSU	L 87-95	-2.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsLIP	W 87-81	-3.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@UNA	W 85-78	-8.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsWGA	W 91-84	-11.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	@EKU	W 96-79	-2.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CARK	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsWGA	W 71-63	-8.5	L −0.5	164.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsAPSU	W 90-83	+2.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 173
Mar 8	vsCARK	W 98-93	+1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 191
Mar 20	vsPUR	L 71-104	+25.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

JAX

W 77-51

+21.5

UNF

W 89-82

−4.5

FGCU

W 85-74

+12.5

STET

W 87-81

−4.5

UNA

W 87-62

+12.5

WGA

L 66-74

−15.5

CARK

L 90-100

−15.5

BELL

L 75-78

−8.5

JAX

W 93-84

+0.5

UNF

W 91-72

+3.5

APSU

L 87-95

−10.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

−1.5

WGA

W 91-84

−4.5

EKU

W 96-79

+14.5

CARK

L 79-84

−2.5

WGA

W 71-63

−0.5

APSU

W 90-83

+9.5

CARK

W 98-93

+6.5

PUR

L 71-104

−7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

JAX

W 77-51

−26.5

UNF

W 89-82

−2.5

FGCU

W 85-74

−7.5

STET

W 87-81

+5.5

UNA

W 87-62

−13.5

WGA

L 66-74

−22.5

CARK

L 90-100

+31.5

BELL

L 75-78

−10.5

JAX

W 93-84

+30.5

UNF

W 91-72

−15.5

APSU

L 87-95

+20.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

+6.5

WGA

W 91-84

+13.5

EKU

W 96-79

+9.5

CARK

L 79-84

−0.5

WGA

W 71-63

−30.5

APSU

W 90-83

+11.5

CARK

W 98-93

+33.5

PUR

L 71-104

+15.5

over 22under 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma St

35 games played

Straight up

20-15

57% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-14

60% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1557%

W W W W W W W W W L W W W L W L L W L L W W L L L L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

W W L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L W L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1460%

O U U U O O O O O U O O O O U U O U U U U O U U O U U O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsORU	W 95-71	-20.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 166
Nov 9	vsTA&M	W 87-63	+2.5	W +26.5	174.5	U 150
Nov 12	vsPV	W 94-67	-30.5	L −3.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 16	vsAMCC	W 85-69	-20.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 19	vsUSF	W 103-95	-3.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 22	vsNICH	W 95-81	-23.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 176
Nov 27	@NU	W 86-81	+2.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 2	vsSHSU	W 93-83	-13.5	L −3.5	169.5	O 176
Dec 6	vsGCU	W 84-78	-1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOU	L 76-85	+2.5	L −6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 18	vsKC	W 91-79	-27.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 21	vsCSUF	W 94-89	-19.5	L −14.5	176.5	O 183
Dec 29	vsBCU	W 103-77	-20.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	@TTU	L 80-102	+12.5	L −9.5	167.5	O 182
Jan 6	vsUCF	W 87-76	-1.5	W +9.5	175.5	U 163
Jan 10	@ISU	L 71-83	+19.5	W +7.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 13	vsBAY	L 79-94	+1.5	L −13.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 17	vsKSU	W 84-83	-2.5	L −1.5	175.5	U 167
Jan 20	@TCU	L 65-68	+8.5	W +5.5	161.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsISU	L 71-84	+10.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 155
Jan 31	@UTAH	W 81-69	-1.5	W +10.5	166.5	U 150
Feb 4	vsBYU	W 99-92	+8.5	W +15.5	167.5	O 191
Feb 7	@ARIZ	L 47-84	+20.5	L −16.5	168.5	U 131
Feb 10	@ASU	L 76-85	+3.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 161
Feb 14	vsTCU	L 92-95	+1.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 187
Feb 18	vsKU	L 69-81	+7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 21	@COLO	L 69-83	+3.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 24	vsWVU	W 91-84	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CIN	L 68-91	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 159
Mar 3	@UCF	W 111-104	+8.5	W +15.5	167.5	O 215
Mar 7	vsHOU	L 75-82	+13.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 10	vsCOLO	W 92-83	+1.5	W +10.5	164.5	O 175
Mar 11	vsTCU	L 88-95	+7.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 183
Mar 17	vsDAV	W 84-80	-6.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 22	vsWICH	L 70-96	-2.5	L −28.5	164.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+3.5

TA&M

W 87-63

+26.5

W 94-67

−3.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−4.5

USF

W 103-95

+4.5

NICH

W 95-81

−9.5

W 86-81

+7.5

SHSU

W 93-83

−3.5

GCU

W 84-78

+4.5

L 76-85

−6.5

W 91-79

−15.5

CSUF

W 94-89

−14.5

BCU

W 103-77

+5.5

TTU

L 80-102

−9.5

UCF

W 87-76

+9.5

ISU

L 71-83

+7.5

BAY

L 79-94

−13.5

KSU

W 84-83

−1.5

TCU

L 65-68

+5.5

ISU

L 71-84

−2.5

UTAH

W 81-69

+10.5

BYU

W 99-92

+15.5

ARIZ

L 47-84

−16.5

ASU

L 76-85

−5.5

TCU

L 92-95

−1.5

L 69-81

−4.5

COLO

L 69-83

−10.5

WVU

W 91-84

+5.5

CIN

L 68-91

−13.5

UCF

W 111-104

+15.5

HOU

L 75-82

+6.5

COLO

W 92-83

+10.5

TCU

L 88-95

+0.5

DAV

W 84-80

−2.5

WICH

L 70-96

−28.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+0.5

TA&M

W 87-63

−24.5

W 94-67

−7.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−0.5

USF

W 103-95

+20.5

NICH

W 95-81

+20.5

W 86-81

+7.5

SHSU

W 93-83

+6.5

GCU

W 84-78

+6.5

L 76-85

−8.5

W 91-79

+8.5

CSUF

W 94-89

+6.5

BCU

W 103-77

+15.5

TTU

L 80-102

+14.5

UCF

W 87-76

−12.5

ISU

L 71-83

−11.5

BAY

L 79-94

+7.5

KSU

W 84-83

−8.5

TCU

L 65-68

−28.5

ISU

L 71-84

−7.5

UTAH

W 81-69

−16.5

BYU

W 99-92

+23.5

ARIZ

L 47-84

−37.5

ASU

L 76-85

−2.5

TCU

L 92-95

+30.5

L 69-81

−8.5

COLO

L 69-83

−10.5

WVU

W 91-84

+30.5

CIN

L 68-91

+7.5

UCF

W 111-104

+47.5

HOU

L 75-82

+5.5

COLO

W 92-83

+10.5

TCU

L 88-95

+24.5

DAV

W 84-80

+9.5

WICH

L 70-96

+1.5

over 21under 14avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

QUC84.4 #16

OKST83.9 #21

Points per possession

QUC1.19 #25

OKST1.12 #110

Pace (possessions)

QUC71.2 #65

OKST74.8 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

QUC56.4 #15

OKST52.0 #144

3-point %

QUC35.7 #74

OKST33.9 #176

3-point attempt rate

QUC46.5 #38

OKST35.5 #260

Free throw rate

QUC35.4 #167

OKST39.4 #70

Possessions

Turnover rate

QUC14.8 #54

OKST15.7 #117

Offensive rebound rate

QUC30.2 #190

OKST30.8 #169

Assists per game

QUC16.0 #49

OKST14.6 #113

Defense

Points allowed

QUC83.8 #355

OKST83.2 #349

Points allowed per possession

QUC1.17 #346

OKST1.12 #265

Opponent effective FG%

QUC54.6 #319

OKST53.1 #272

Opponent 3-point %

QUC36.5 #325

OKST36.0 #304

Turnovers forced

QUC15.1 #276

OKST15.7 #240

Defensive rebound rate

QUC66.4 #308

OKST69.7 #178

Steals per game

QUC6.0 #238

OKST7.1 #120

Blocks per game

QUC2.9 #236

OKST2.7 #285

QUC		OKST
Scoring
84.4 #16	Points per game	83.9 #21
1.19 #25	Points per possession	1.12 #110
71.2 #65	Pace (possessions)	74.8 #6
Shooting
56.4 #15	Effective FG%	52.0 #144
35.7 #74	3-point %	33.9 #176
46.5 #38	3-point attempt rate	35.5 #260
35.4 #167	Free throw rate	39.4 #70
Possessions
14.8 #54	Turnover rate	15.7 #117
30.2 #190	Offensive rebound rate	30.8 #169
16.0 #49	Assists per game	14.6 #113
Defense
83.8 #355	Points allowed	83.2 #349
1.17 #346	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #265
54.6 #319	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #272
36.5 #325	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #304
15.1 #276	Turnovers forced	15.7 #240
66.4 #308	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #178
6.0 #238	Steals per game	7.1 #120
2.9 #236	Blocks per game	2.7 #285

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Queens University Royals

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue71–104
Wvs C Arkansas98–93
Wvs Austin Peay90–83
Wvs West Georgia71–63
L@ C Arkansas79–84

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wichita St70–96
Wvs Davidson84–80
Lvs TCU88–95
Wvs Colorado92–83
Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.

Queens University Royals at Oklahoma State Cowboys

What could decide it: OKST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

Oklahoma St

Matchup stats

Queens University Royals

Oklahoma St