Cal State Northridge Matadors at Kansas State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ETBramlage Coliseum · at Kansas St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CSU Northridge and Kansas St
CSUN	This season	KSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KSU 85–72 · win probability KSU 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KSU has more of the edges

CSUN 2, KSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

KSUBig

KSU offense vs CSUN defense

Offense 74th of 366 against a defense 271st, on the model’s ratings

CSUNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CSUN 31.9%, KSU 29.2%. Defensive: CSUN 73.4%, KSU 66.0%

Context

Schedule so far

CSUN has played the 219th-hardest schedule, KSU the 43rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

KSUBig

Three-pointers

CSUN hits 32.4% and allows 34.4%; KSU hits 36.4% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 33.6% and 40.9% of their shots

CSUNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CSUN 34.2, KSU 26.9. Allowed: CSUN 34.3, KSU 35.2

KSUSmall

Home court

KSU at home. This season: KSU 0-0 at home, CSUN 0-0 away

Even

CSUN offense vs KSU defense

Offense 140th of 366 against a defense 97th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CSUN 51.3 and allows 51.6; KSU 53.3 and allows 52.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CSUN 17.5%, KSU 17.4%. Forced: CSUN 16.5%, KSU 17.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CSUN 18%, KSU 7%. Transfers in: CSUN 7, KSU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 75 possessions: CSUN plays 75.6 a game (2nd fastest), KSU 73.8 (11th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KSU -13.1	—
Total	—	157.6	—
Projected score	—	CSUN 72.3 · KSU 85.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KSU -7.6	—
1H total	73.6	—
1H projected score	CSUN 33 · KSU 40.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUN LLLWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—
KSU LLWLL	12-20	38%	5-13	—

Venue/role: CSUN away; KSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUN OOUUO	19-13	59%	18-14
KSU UUUOO	16-16	50%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
KSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CSU Northridge

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ TROY	W94–85WO
Nov 20	vs DEL	W88–66WO
Nov 25	@ WEB	No recent meeting

Kansas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs CREI	W83–76WU
Nov 16	vs MONT	No recent meeting
Nov 20	vs CAM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CSU Northridge

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-13

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1359%

U O O O U U U O O O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsIDST	L 50-82	+1.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 4	vsCSUB	W 87-66	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCI	L 71-85	+7.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsFRES	W 89-87	-3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 13	@DEL	W 88-66	+1.5	W +23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 22	vsSAC	W 100-88	-8.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 188
Dec 27	@STAN	L 80-88	+15.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 168
Jan 1	@UCD	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsUCSB	W 74-65	-2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsCP	W 95-90	-6.5	L −1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	@CSUF	L 79-86	+1.5	L −5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCSD	W 84-79	+7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	vsLBSU	L 80-87	-7.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 24	@HAW	L 68-89	+10.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUCD	W 94-78	-3.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsUCSD	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	@CP	W 97-96	-2.5	L −1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	vsUCR	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsHAW	W 84-60	+2.5	W +26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	@UCSB	W 85-83	+5.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@LBSU	W 78-76	-2.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	vsUCI	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UCR	L 84-95	-4.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@CSUB	W 86-84	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsCSUF	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCSD	W 80-70	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 13	vsUCI	L 78-93	+3.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

IDST

L 50-82

−30.5

CSUB

W 87-66

+15.5

UCI

L 71-85

−6.5

FRES

W 89-87

−1.5

DEL

W 88-66

+23.5

SAC

W 100-88

+3.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

−5.5

UCSB

W 74-65

+6.5

W 95-90

−1.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−5.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+12.5

LBSU

L 80-87

−14.5

HAW

L 68-89

−10.5

UCD

W 94-78

+12.5

UCSD

W 81-64

+18.5

W 97-96

−1.5

UCR

W 88-74

+3.5

HAW

W 84-60

+26.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+7.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−0.5

UCI

L 67-68

−2.5

UCR

L 84-95

−15.5

CSUB

W 86-84

−6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−18.5

UCSD

W 80-70

+11.5

UCI

L 78-93

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

IDST

L 50-82

−16.5

CSUB

W 87-66

−2.5

UCI

L 71-85

+3.5

FRES

W 89-87

+14.5

DEL

W 88-66

+9.5

SAC

W 100-88

+23.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

+6.5

UCSB

W 74-65

−17.5

W 95-90

+9.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−8.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+3.5

LBSU

L 80-87

+8.5

HAW

L 68-89

−1.5

UCD

W 94-78

+8.5

UCSD

W 81-64

−15.5

W 97-96

+15.5

UCR

W 88-74

+1.5

HAW

W 84-60

−18.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+11.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−3.5

UCI

L 67-68

−18.5

UCR

L 84-95

+20.5

CSUB

W 86-84

+6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−3.5

UCSD

W 80-70

−3.5

UCI

L 78-93

+18.5

over 19under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas St

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L L L L W W W W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

W L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O O O O U U U U U O O U O O U U U U U U O O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 20	vsMSST	W 98-77	+2.5	W +23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsNEB	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	@IU	L 69-86	+10.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsBGSU	L 66-82	-12.5	L −28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsHALL	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 8	vsMVSU	W 108-49	-38.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 13	@CREI	W 83-76	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsSDAK	W 106-76	-21.5	W +8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 28	vsULM	W 94-85	-32.5	L −23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBYU	L 73-83	+7.5	L −2.5	174.5	U 156
Jan 7	@ARIZ	L 76-101	+17.5	L −7.5	171.5	O 177
Jan 10	@ASU	L 84-87	+1.5	L −1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	vsUCF	L 73-82	-2.5	L −11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	@OKST	L 83-84	+2.5	W +1.5	175.5	U 167
Jan 20	vsUTAH	W 81-78	-10.5	L −7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	vsKU	L 62-86	+4.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 27	@WVU	L 54-59	+7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 113
Feb 1	vsISU	L 61-95	+12.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	@TCU	L 82-84	+9.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 166
Feb 11	vsCIN	L 62-91	+2.5	L −26.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 14	@HOU	L 64-78	+22.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 17	vsBAY	W 90-74	+3.5	W +19.5	159.5	O 164
Feb 21	@TTU	L 72-100	+12.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 172
Feb 25	@COLO	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 149
Feb 28	vsTCU	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsWVU	W 65-63	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 7	@KU	L 85-104	+17.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 10	vsBYU	L 91-105	+11.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 196

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

MSST

W 98-77

+23.5

NEB

L 85-86

+0.5

L 69-86

−6.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−28.5

HALL

L 67-78

−13.5

MVSU

W 108-49

+20.5

CREI

W 83-76

+11.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+8.5

ULM

W 94-85

−23.5

BYU

L 73-83

−2.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

−7.5

ASU

L 84-87

−1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−11.5

OKST

L 83-84

+1.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−7.5

L 62-86

−19.5

WVU

L 54-59

+2.5

ISU

L 61-95

−21.5

TCU

L 82-84

+7.5

CIN

L 62-91

−26.5

HOU

L 64-78

+8.5

BAY

W 90-74

+19.5

TTU

L 72-100

−15.5

COLO

L 70-79

−3.5

TCU

L 68-77

−5.5

WVU

W 65-63

+5.5

L 85-104

−1.5

BYU

L 91-105

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

MSST

W 98-77

+10.5

NEB

L 85-86

+2.5

L 69-86

−9.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−11.5

HALL

L 67-78

−3.5

MVSU

W 108-49

−3.5

CREI

W 83-76

−0.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+5.5

ULM

W 94-85

+9.5

BYU

L 73-83

−18.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

+5.5

ASU

L 84-87

+1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−15.5

OKST

L 83-84

−8.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−9.5

L 62-86

−10.5

WVU

L 54-59

−33.5

ISU

L 61-95

−0.5

TCU

L 82-84

+10.5

CIN

L 62-91

+5.5

HOU

L 64-78

−2.5

BAY

W 90-74

+4.5

TTU

L 72-100

+13.5

COLO

L 70-79

−14.5

TCU

L 68-77

−14.5

WVU

W 65-63

−15.5

L 85-104

+31.5

BYU

L 91-105

+27.5

over 16under 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas St has the better starters

Position by position: CSU Northridge 0, Kansas St 1, even 4

CSU NorthridgeBetterKansas St

G J. Davis16.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 7.5 ast Score 71

Even

G B. Rechsteiner TR12 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

G C. Smith TR7.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

Even

G J. Schutt TR7.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 39

G M. Ballew TR8.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

KSUSmall

G M. Wheeler TR8.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 50

G B. Hicks TR8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 49

Even

F D. Lindsay TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 51

G K. Ekissi TR4.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 29

Even

F I. Abraham TR4.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

CSU NorthridgeBetterKansas St

CSUN offense140th of 366 · -4.2

Even

KSU defense97th of 366 · -0.7

CSUN defense271st of 366 · -6.8

KSUBig

KSU offense74th of 366 · +1.4

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

KSUBig

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

KSUSmall

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCSUN betterKSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CSU Northridge

Guards

J. Davis34 minC. Smith30 min · TRM. Ballew23 min · TRB. Hicks22 min · TRK. Ekissi17 min · TRG. Gazarian2 min

Forwards

J. Martin7 min · TRB. OmotNew

Centers

E. Stephen15 min · TRL. Niang8 min · TR

Kansas St

Guards

B. Rechsteiner28 min · TRJ. Schutt25 min · TRM. Wheeler22 min · TRA. Kostic14 minJ. AlexanderNew

Forwards

D. Lindsay21 min · TRI. Abraham20 min · TRT. Malovec15 min · TRP. N'Diaye9 min · TRB. Vice6 min · TRM. GilhoolNew

Centers

J. Rock13 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CSUN80.6 #54

KSU79.6 #74

Points per possession

CSUN1.06 #219

KSU1.08 #191

Pace (possessions)

CSUN75.6 #2

KSU73.8 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

CSUN51.3 #183

KSU53.3 #88

3-point %

CSUN32.4 #260

KSU36.4 #43

3-point attempt rate

CSUN33.6 #308

KSU40.9 #148

Free throw rate

CSUN34.2 #200

KSU26.9 #351

Possessions

Turnover rate

CSUN17.5 #237

KSU17.4 #233

Offensive rebound rate

CSUN31.9 #130

KSU29.2 #229

Assists per game

CSUN16.7 #31

KSU16.8 #29

Defense

Points allowed

CSUN81.3 #336

KSU81.8 #339

Points allowed per possession

CSUN1.08 #153

KSU1.11 #244

Opponent effective FG%

CSUN51.6 #191

KSU52.5 #239

Opponent 3-point %

CSUN34.4 #210

KSU33.7 #166

Turnovers forced

CSUN16.5 #187

KSU17.1 #145

Defensive rebound rate

CSUN73.4 #26

KSU66.0 #317

Steals per game

CSUN6.6 #166

KSU7.0 #121

Blocks per game

CSUN2.8 #259

KSU3.5 #137

CSUN		KSU
Scoring
80.6 #54	Points per game	79.6 #74
1.06 #219	Points per possession	1.08 #191
75.6 #2	Pace (possessions)	73.8 #11
Shooting
51.3 #183	Effective FG%	53.3 #88
32.4 #260	3-point %	36.4 #43
33.6 #308	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #148
34.2 #200	Free throw rate	26.9 #351
Possessions
17.5 #237	Turnover rate	17.4 #233
31.9 #130	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #229
16.7 #31	Assists per game	16.8 #29
Defense
81.3 #336	Points allowed	81.8 #339
1.08 #153	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #244
51.6 #191	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #239
34.4 #210	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #166
16.5 #187	Turnovers forced	17.1 #145
73.4 #26	Defensive rebound rate	66.0 #317
6.6 #166	Steals per game	7.0 #121
2.8 #259	Blocks per game	3.5 #137

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CSU Northridge

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Irvine78–93
Wvs UC San Diego80–70
Lvs Fullerton77–90
W@ Bakersfield86–84
L@ UC Riverside84–95

A week or more of rest.

Kansas St

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs BYU91–105
L@ Kansas85–104
Wvs West Virginia65–63
Lvs TCU68–77
L@ Colorado70–79

A week or more of rest.

Cal State Northridge Matadors at Kansas State Wildcats

What could decide it: KSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

CSU Northridge

Kansas St

Kansas St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CSU Northridge

Kansas St