California Baptist Lancers at Oregon State Beavers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 9:30 PM ETGill Coliseum · at Oregon St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CA Baptist and Oregon St
CBU	This season	ORST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORST 79–67 · win probability ORST 85%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

CBU 2, ORST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CBUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CBU 37.5%, ORST 26.8%. Defensive: CBU 72.8%, ORST 67.9%

ORSTBig

CBU offense vs ORST defense

Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings

ORSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CBU 35.9, ORST 43.1. Allowed: CBU 36.6, ORST 35.1

ORSTSmall

ORST offense vs CBU defense

Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CBU has played the 202nd-hardest schedule, ORST the 120th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORSTSmall

Home court

ORST at home. This season: ORST 0-0 at home, CBU 0-0 away

CBUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CBU 18.0%, ORST 17.7%. Forced: CBU 16.9%, ORST 15.3%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: CBU plays 68.3 a game (217th fastest), ORST 67.2 (272nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%; ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 32.0% and 44.3% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3; ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CBU 18%, ORST 17%. Transfers in: CBU 2, ORST 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ORST -11.8	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	CBU 67.1 · ORST 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORST -6.9	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	CBU 30.7 · ORST 37.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CBU WWWWW	20-14	59%	9-6	—
ORST WWLWW	16-17	48%	9-8	—

Venue/role: CBU away; ORST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CBU UOOUU	12-22	35%	25-9
ORST OOOOU	19-14	58%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CBU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
ORST	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CA Baptist

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs CHST	W74–62WO
Nov 13	vs UAPB	No recent meeting
Nov 17	vs SEA	L48–72LU

Oregon St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs EWU	No recent meeting
Nov 13	vs MVSU	No recent meeting
Nov 16	vs ETAM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CBU 1–0 ORSTCBU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CBU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2025-26	CBU 75 @ ORST 69	ORST -1.5	CBU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CA Baptist

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W W W L L W L L W W W W W W W

7 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

O U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U U O O U U O U U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsUSD	W 76-61	-7.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 29	@ORST	W 75-69	+1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 1	@COLO	L 70-78	+13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 3	@BYU	L 60-91	+18.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 6	@UTAH	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 12	@EWU	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 171
Dec 16	vsSOU	W 75-67	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 20	vsSAC	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 141
Dec 29	@UVU	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@UTA	L 51-63	-2.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 114
Jan 3	@TAR	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 157
Jan 8	vsUTU	W 84-72	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsSUU	W 58-55	-14.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 113
Jan 15	@ACU	W 74-58	+1.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 21	vsUTU	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsUVU	W 78-71	-1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@UTA	W 87-77	-1.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 164
Feb 5	vsTAR	W 56-55	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 111
Feb 7	vsACU	W 65-63	-8.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 128
Feb 12	@SUU	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 14	@UTU	L 65-70	-2.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 19	@UVU	L 46-65	+8.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 26	vsUTA	W 68-56	-6.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 28	vsTAR	W 82-67	-8.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 5	vsACU	W 87-48	-9.5	W +29.5	136.5	U 135
Mar 7	@SUU	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 157
Mar 13	vsUTU	W 86-72	-8.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsUVU	W 63-61	+2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsKU	L 60-68	+14.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

USD

W 76-61

+7.5

ORST

W 75-69

+7.5

COLO

L 70-78

+5.5

BYU

L 60-91

−12.5

UTAH

L 85-91

−0.5

EWU

W 88-83

+1.5

SOU

W 75-67

−4.5

SAC

W 74-67

−7.5

UVU

L 66-73

+0.5

UTA

L 51-63

−14.5

TAR

L 76-81

−3.5

UTU

W 84-72

+4.5

SUU

W 58-55

−11.5

ACU

W 74-58

+17.5

UTU

W 73-64

+0.5

UVU

W 78-71

+5.5

UTA

W 87-77

+8.5

TAR

W 56-55

−9.5

ACU

W 65-63

−6.5

SUU

W 83-66

+11.5

UTU

L 65-70

−7.5

UVU

L 46-65

−10.5

UTA

W 68-56

+5.5

TAR

W 82-67

+6.5

ACU

W 87-48

+29.5

SUU

W 82-75

+0.5

UTU

W 86-72

+5.5

UVU

W 63-61

+4.5

L 60-68

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

USD

W 76-61

−9.5

ORST

W 75-69

+6.5

COLO

L 70-78

−2.5

BYU

L 60-91

−2.5

UTAH

L 85-91

+30.5

EWU

W 88-83

+17.5

SOU

W 75-67

−13.5

SAC

W 74-67

−17.5

UVU

L 66-73

−9.5

UTA

L 51-63

−20.5

TAR

L 76-81

+9.5

UTU

W 84-72

+11.5

SUU

W 58-55

−37.5

ACU

W 74-58

−8.5

UTU

W 73-64

−6.5

UVU

W 78-71

+1.5

UTA

W 87-77

+29.5

TAR

W 56-55

−27.5

ACU

W 65-63

−7.5

SUU

W 83-66

+1.5

UTU

L 65-70

−8.5

UVU

L 46-65

−31.5

UTA

W 68-56

−10.5

TAR

W 82-67

+9.5

ACU

W 87-48

−1.5

SUU

W 82-75

+8.5

UTU

W 86-72

+13.5

UVU

W 63-61

−15.5

L 60-68

−14.5

over 12under 22avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon St

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L W L L L L W W W L W L W L L W L W L L W W W L W L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O U O O O U O U O U O O O U U O U O O O U U O U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsIONA	L 84-91	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsMASS	L 65-73	-3.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 138
Nov 29	vsCBU	L 69-75	-1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 3	vsUVM	W 80-58	-3.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsSUU	W 81-70	-10.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	vsMTST	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 124
Dec 17	vsSHSU	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@ASU	W 78-75	+12.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 28	vsSCU	L 64-102	+7.5	L −30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	vsSF	W 70-62	+4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	@PAC	L 53-84	+4.5	L −26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	@WSU	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 8	vsSEA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PORT	L 76-82	+2.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 14	vsLMU	W 76-70	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPAC	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 21	@SMC	L 51-81	+19.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	@LMU	W 72-69	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	@USD	W 78-76	+3.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWSU	W 74-64	+1.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	vsGONZ	L 61-81	+19.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 12	@SF	W 90-63	+8.5	W +35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@SEA	L 50-60	+6.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 21	vsPEPP	W 83-73	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsUSD	W 92-82	-6.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 174
Feb 28	@SCU	L 72-93	+15.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsSF	W 78-77	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 155
Mar 9	vsGONZ	L 56-65	+20.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

IONA

L 84-91

−10.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

−7.5

UVM

W 80-58

+18.5

SUU

W 81-70

+0.5

MTST

W 67-57

+8.5

SHSU

L 75-85

−13.5

ASU

W 78-75

+15.5

SCU

L 64-102

−30.5

W 70-62

+12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−26.5

WSU

L 67-81

−7.5

SEA

W 68-55

+17.5

PORT

L 76-82

−3.5

LMU

W 76-70

+7.5

PAC

L 64-81

−18.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

+8.5

USD

W 78-76

+5.5

WSU

W 74-64

+11.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−0.5

W 90-63

+35.5

SEA

L 50-60

−3.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+0.5

USD

W 92-82

+3.5

SCU

L 72-93

−5.5

W 78-77

+4.5

GONZ

L 56-65

+11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

IONA

L 84-91

+17.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

+6.5

UVM

W 80-58

−5.5

SUU

W 81-70

+4.5

MTST

W 67-57

−16.5

SHSU

L 75-85

+6.5

ASU

W 78-75

+5.5

SCU

L 64-102

+15.5

W 70-62

−12.5

PAC

L 53-84

−0.5

WSU

L 67-81

+7.5

SEA

W 68-55

−16.5

PORT

L 76-82

+12.5

LMU

W 76-70

+5.5

PAC

L 64-81

+5.5

SMC

L 51-81

−10.5

LMU

W 72-69

−0.5

USD

W 78-76

+3.5

WSU

W 74-64

−9.5

GONZ

L 61-81

−7.5

W 90-63

+12.5

SEA

L 50-60

−26.5

PEPP

W 83-73

+7.5

USD

W 92-82

+29.5

SCU

L 72-93

+11.5

W 78-77

+10.5

GONZ

L 56-65

−24.5

over 19under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon St has the better starters

Position by position: CA Baptist 0, Oregon St 2, even 3

CA BaptistBetterOregon St

G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

ORSTSmall

G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87

G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7

ORSTBig

G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93

G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52

F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43

F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80

CA BaptistBetterOregon St

CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5

ORSTBig

ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1

CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0

ORSTSmall

ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7

Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players

ORSTBig

Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

ORSTSmall

Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCBU betterORST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CA Baptist

Guards

E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew

Forwards

R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew

Centers

M. KovacNew

Oregon St

Guards

J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew

Forwards

J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew

Centers

D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CBU72.7 #230

ORST71.1 #264

Points per possession

CBU1.07 #209

ORST1.06 #232

Pace (possessions)

CBU68.3 #217

ORST67.2 #272

Shooting

Effective FG%

CBU48.3 #308

ORST50.5 #216

3-point %

CBU33.4 #200

ORST35.0 #115

3-point attempt rate

CBU32.0 #330

ORST44.3 #84

Free throw rate

CBU35.9 #154

ORST43.1 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

CBU18.0 #270

ORST17.7 #254

Offensive rebound rate

CBU37.5 #13

ORST26.8 #303

Assists per game

CBU10.2 #355

ORST13.8 #159

Defense

Points allowed

CBU67.6 #28

ORST74.2 #159

Points allowed per possession

CBU0.99 #18

ORST1.10 #223

Opponent effective FG%

CBU46.3 #16

ORST50.3 #119

Opponent 3-point %

CBU29.5 #5

ORST32.9 #116

Turnovers forced

CBU16.9 #159

ORST15.3 #264

Defensive rebound rate

CBU72.8 #41

ORST67.9 #265

Steals per game

CBU5.5 #296

ORST5.5 #293

Blocks per game

CBU2.9 #253

ORST3.7 #115

CBU		ORST
Scoring
72.7 #230	Points per game	71.1 #264
1.07 #209	Points per possession	1.06 #232
68.3 #217	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #272
Shooting
48.3 #308	Effective FG%	50.5 #216
33.4 #200	3-point %	35.0 #115
32.0 #330	3-point attempt rate	44.3 #84
35.9 #154	Free throw rate	43.1 #20
Possessions
18.0 #270	Turnover rate	17.7 #254
37.5 #13	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #303
10.2 #355	Assists per game	13.8 #159
Defense
67.6 #28	Points allowed	74.2 #159
0.99 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #223
46.3 #16	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #119
29.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #116
16.9 #159	Turnovers forced	15.3 #264
72.8 #41	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #265
5.5 #296	Steals per game	5.5 #293
2.9 #253	Blocks per game	3.7 #115

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kansas60–68
Wvs Utah Valley63–61
Wvs Utah Tech86–72
W@ Southern Utah82–75
Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gonzaga56–65
Wvs San Francisco78–77
L@ Santa Clara72–93
Wvs San Diego92–82
Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.

California Baptist Lancers at Oregon State Beavers

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

CA Baptist

Oregon St

Oregon St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CA Baptist

Oregon St