1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. UNCO @ ASU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Northern Colorado Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils

Desert Financial Arena · at Arizona St
#219UNCON Colorado
@
#60ASUArizona St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCOThis seasonASU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ASU 87–68 · win probability ASU 95%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ASU has more of the edges

UNCO 3, ASU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UNCO has played the 303rd-hardest schedule, ASU the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ASUBig
ASU offense vs UNCO defense
Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 281st, on the model’s ratings
ASUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCO 27.5, ASU 39.5. Allowed: UNCO 38.8, ASU 34.3
UNCOBig
Three-pointers
UNCO hits 35.0% and allows 30.7%; ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 41.5% and 38.4% of their shots
UNCOBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCO 55.7 and allows 50.1; ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4
UNCOBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCO 27.2%, ASU 29.9%. Defensive: UNCO 75.8%, ASU 65.1%
ASUSmall
UNCO offense vs ASU defense
Offense 167th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings
ASUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCO 15.5%, ASU 17.1%. Forced: UNCO 12.4%, ASU 18.4%
ASUSmall
Home court
ASU at home. This season: ASU 0-0 at home, UNCO 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCO 28%, ASU 11%. Transfers in: UNCO 4, ASU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UNCO plays 71.3 a game (60th fastest), ASU 70.6 (93rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ASU -18.7—
Total—154.7—
Projected score—UNCO 68 · ASU 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadASU -11.0—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreUNCO 30.6 · ASU 41.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arizona St has the better starters

Position by position: N Colorado 0, Arizona St 4, even 1
N ColoradoBetterArizona St
G L. Reynolds TR11.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
Even
G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79
G V. Delano6.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11
ASUBig
G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
G C. Tramble TR3.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 16
ASUBig
G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
F K. Rayfield TR6.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 40
ASUBig
F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97
C E. Shields6.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
ASUBig
C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
N ColoradoBetterArizona St
UNCO offense167th of 366 · -5.1
ASUSmall
ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2
UNCO defense281st of 366 · -7.0
ASUBig
ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
ASUBig
Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
ASUBig
Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUNCO betterASU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Colorado
Guards
L. Reynolds33 min · TRV. Delano20 minC. Tramble12 min · TRA. Mawien8 minT. Braketa5 minC. BloggNew
Forwards
K. Rayfield20 min · TRA. Crawford5 min · TRM. ShareefNewD. PaineNew
Centers
E. Shields18 minH. Caldwell4 min
Arizona St
Guards
J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew
Forwards
P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew
Centers
B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCOASU
Scoring
80.8 #51Points per game76.3 #133
1.14 #75Points per possession1.08 #178
71.3 #60Pace (possessions)70.6 #93
Shooting
55.7 #24Effective FG%51.1 #190
35.0 #1213-point %33.4 #202
41.5 #1403-point attempt rate38.4 #201
27.5 #348Free throw rate39.5 #66
Possessions
15.5 #103Turnover rate17.1 #211
27.2 #288Offensive rebound rate29.9 #206
15.8 #54Assists per game13.7 #166
Defense
78.1 #270Points allowed78.3 #273
1.09 #209Points allowed per possession1.11 #239
50.1 #106Opponent effective FG%52.4 #235
30.7 #28Opponent 3-point %35.0 #249
12.4 #363Turnovers forced18.4 #77
75.8 #6Defensive rebound rate65.1 #337
4.0 #364Steals per game7.0 #122
2.7 #273Blocks per game4.6 #32
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Colorado

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Montana89–95
  • Wvs Montana85–57
  • W@ Idaho76–67
  • L@ E Washington72–82
  • Wvs N Arizona78–77

A week or more of rest.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State42–91
  • Wvs Baylor83–79
  • L@ Iowa State65–86
  • Wvs Kansas70–60
  • Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.