1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. IDHO @ CSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Idaho Vandals at Colorado State Rams

Moby Arena · at Colorado St
#247IDHOIdaho
@
#87CSUColorado St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
IDHOThis seasonCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSU 81–64 · win probability CSU 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

IDHO 1, CSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CSUBig
IDHO offense vs CSU defense
Offense 253rd of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
IDHO has played the 262nd-hardest schedule, CSU the 96th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CSUBig
CSU offense vs IDHO defense
Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 233rd, on the model’s ratings
CSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: IDHO 34.6, CSU 39.4. Allowed: IDHO 38.5, CSU 34.2
CSUBig
Three-pointers
IDHO hits 34.1% and allows 35.2%; CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 47.0% and 49.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: IDHO plays 69.4 a game (153rd fastest), CSU 64.4 (355th). Faster games mean more points
IDHOSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IDHO 15.0%, CSU 18.5%. Forced: IDHO 15.0%, CSU 15.4%
CSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IDHO 23%, CSU 67%. Transfers in: IDHO 3, CSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CSUSmall
Home court
CSU at home. This season: CSU 0-0 at home, IDHO 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IDHO 28.4%, CSU 30.0%. Defensive: IDHO 75.8%, CSU 70.8%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: IDHO 51.4 and allows 50.5; CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CSU -16.1—
Total—145.0—
Projected score—IDHO 64.4 · CSU 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCSU -9.4—
1H total67.8—
1H projected scoreIDHO 29.2 · CSU 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado St has the better starters

Position by position: Idaho 0, Colorado St 3, even 2
IdahoBetterColorado St
G K. Gonzalez18 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Menard TR12.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 79
G R. Lafferty TR0.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Pascarelli10.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 64
G M. Klapper2.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 35
CSUSmall
G J. Butler9.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67
F H. Ward TR5 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 35
CSUBig
F K. Jorgensen11.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 87
F S. Joba4.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25
CSUBig
F C. Booth10.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
IdahoBetterColorado St
IDHO offense253rd of 366 · -7.6
CSUBig
CSU defense61st of 366 · +1.2
IDHO defense233rd of 366 · -6.2
CSUBig
CSU offense103rd of 366 · -1.2
Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players
CSUBig
Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players
CSUBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestIDHO betterCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Idaho
Guards
K. Gonzalez18 minR. Lafferty13 min · TRM. Klapper12 minK. Wynott10 min · TRB. KennisonNewT. WalNew
Forwards
H. Ward19 min · TRS. Joba17 minD. Trejo-DelgadoNewM. DiaoNewW. JensonNewN. Newman-GomezNew
Colorado St
Guards
J. Menard29 min · TRJ. Pascarelli27 minJ. Butler26 minJ. McIver12 minR. SawyerNewP. DunsonNew
Forwards
K. Jorgensen26 minC. Booth25 minR. Mbemba18 minC. Dortch2 minA. MillerNewD. TedeschiNew
Centers
J. ClarkNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
IDHOCSU
Scoring
75.8 #147Points per game74.8 #169
1.10 #145Points per possession1.16 #44
69.4 #153Pace (possessions)64.4 #355
Shooting
51.4 #177Effective FG%57.5 #12
34.1 #1683-point %38.6 #9
47.0 #343-point attempt rate49.1 #19
34.6 #193Free throw rate39.4 #69
Possessions
15.0 #69Turnover rate18.5 #298
28.4 #250Offensive rebound rate30.0 #198
11.4 #313Assists per game15.6 #62
Defense
74.1 #157Points allowed71.6 #95
1.06 #112Points allowed per possession1.11 #241
50.5 #128Opponent effective FG%52.9 #263
35.2 #264Opponent 3-point %34.2 #196
15.0 #288Turnovers forced15.4 #255
75.8 #5Defensive rebound rate70.8 #123
5.6 #282Steals per game5.2 #320
2.4 #319Blocks per game2.1 #338
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Idaho

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Houston47–78
  • Wvs Montana77–66
  • Wvs E Washington81–68
  • Wvs Montana St78–74
  • Wvs Sacramento St68–45

A week or more of rest.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
  • Lvs San Diego St62–71
  • Wvs Fresno St67–63
  • Lvs Boise St67–78
  • W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.