Queens University Royals at Loyola Marymount Lions: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 10:00 PM ETGersten Pavilion · at LMU

#121LMULMU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Queens University Royals and LMU
QUC	This season	LMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LMU 81–75 · win probability LMU 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LMU has more of the edges

QUC 0, LMU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LMUBig

LMU offense vs QUC defense

Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 331st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

QUC has played the 194th-hardest schedule, LMU the 131st. A record against a soft schedule means less

LMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: QUC 56.4 and allows 54.6; LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: QUC plays 71.2 a game (65th fastest), LMU 68.9 (185th). Faster games mean more points

LMUSmall

Home court

LMU at home. This season: LMU 0-0 at home, QUC 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: QUC 14.8%, LMU 17.4%. Forced: QUC 15.1%, LMU 16.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: QUC 0%, LMU 22%. Transfers in: QUC 0, LMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: QUC 30.2%, LMU 26.7%. Defensive: QUC 66.4%, LMU 68.0%

Even

Three-pointers

QUC hits 35.7% and allows 36.5%; LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 46.5% and 40.4% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: QUC 35.4, LMU 31.1. Allowed: QUC 38.1, LMU 32.5

Even

QUC offense vs LMU defense

Offense 102nd of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LMU -6.5	—
Total	—	155.6	—
Projected score	—	QUC 74.6 · LMU 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LMU -3.7	—
1H total	72.7	—
1H projected score	QUC 34.5 · LMU 38.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LLWWL	15-19	44%	5-11	—
LMU LWLLL	14-17	45%	8-9	—

Venue/role: QUC away; LMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC UUOOO	22-12	65%	20-14
LMU OUUOU	15-16	48%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
LMU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Queens University Royals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ OKST	No recent meeting
Nov 10	@ BYU	L55–99LU
Nov 14	vs WOF	No recent meeting

LMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ TROY	W74–63WU
Nov 12	vs USA	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs CHST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-12

65% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1265%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O U U U O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	@JAX	W 77-51	-4.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	@UNF	W 89-82	-11.5	L −4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@FGCU	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	@STET	W 87-81	-10.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsUNA	W 87-62	-12.5	W +12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WGA	L 66-74	-7.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsCARK	L 90-100	-5.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	@BELL	L 75-78	-5.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsJAX	W 93-84	-8.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsUNF	W 91-72	-15.5	W +3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	vsAPSU	L 87-95	-2.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsLIP	W 87-81	-3.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@UNA	W 85-78	-8.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsWGA	W 91-84	-11.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	@EKU	W 96-79	-2.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CARK	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsWGA	W 71-63	-8.5	L −0.5	164.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsAPSU	W 90-83	+2.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 173
Mar 8	vsCARK	W 98-93	+1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 191
Mar 20	vsPUR	L 71-104	+25.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

JAX

W 77-51

+21.5

UNF

W 89-82

−4.5

FGCU

W 85-74

+12.5

STET

W 87-81

−4.5

UNA

W 87-62

+12.5

WGA

L 66-74

−15.5

CARK

L 90-100

−15.5

BELL

L 75-78

−8.5

JAX

W 93-84

+0.5

UNF

W 91-72

+3.5

APSU

L 87-95

−10.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

−1.5

WGA

W 91-84

−4.5

EKU

W 96-79

+14.5

CARK

L 79-84

−2.5

WGA

W 71-63

−0.5

APSU

W 90-83

+9.5

CARK

W 98-93

+6.5

PUR

L 71-104

−7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

JAX

W 77-51

−26.5

UNF

W 89-82

−2.5

FGCU

W 85-74

−7.5

STET

W 87-81

+5.5

UNA

W 87-62

−13.5

WGA

L 66-74

−22.5

CARK

L 90-100

+31.5

BELL

L 75-78

−10.5

JAX

W 93-84

+30.5

UNF

W 91-72

−15.5

APSU

L 87-95

+20.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

+6.5

WGA

W 91-84

+13.5

EKU

W 96-79

+9.5

CARK

L 79-84

−0.5

WGA

W 71-63

−30.5

APSU

W 90-83

+11.5

CARK

W 98-93

+33.5

PUR

L 71-104

+15.5

over 22under 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

LMU

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

L W W W W L W L L L W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U U O U U O O U O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 14	vsTROY	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 17	@UCSB	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 24	vsFAU	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsOHIO	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsSTBK	L 68-71	-10.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 2	vsSLU	L 70-91	+7.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 16	vsUCSD	L 57-67	+1.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUNA	W 91-57	-10.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 23	vsMORG	W 83-56	-23.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSMC	L 73-78	+9.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsPAC	W 80-71	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	@WSU	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 154
Jan 4	@GONZ	L 47-82	+25.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSF	W 84-82	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@SCU	L 72-103	+11.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	@ORST	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPORT	L 58-71	-8.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 21	@SEA	L 59-69	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 28	vsORST	L 69-72	-5.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsSCU	L 73-104	+8.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@SF	W 84-75	+8.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsUSD	W 83-63	-6.5	W +13.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	@PAC	L 59-65	+5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Feb 14	@PEPP	L 89-90	-5.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 21	@USD	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 25	vsWSU	W 67-66	-1.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 133
Feb 28	vsSEA	L 66-71	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 5	vsUSD	L 62-66	-5.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

TROY

W 74-63

+6.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+7.5

FAU

L 65-76

−7.5

OHIO

W 70-58

+8.5

STBK

L 68-71

−13.5

SLU

L 70-91

−13.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−8.5

UNA

W 91-57

+23.5

MORG

W 83-56

+3.5

SMC

L 73-78

+4.5

PAC

W 80-71

+5.5

WSU

L 76-78

+1.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−9.5

W 84-82

+0.5

SCU

L 72-103

−19.5

ORST

L 70-76

−7.5

PORT

L 58-71

−21.5

SEA

L 59-69

−5.5

ORST

L 69-72

−8.5

SCU

L 73-104

−22.5

W 84-75

+17.5

USD

W 83-63

+13.5

PAC

L 59-65

−0.5

PEPP

L 89-90

−6.5

USD

W 77-65

+9.5

WSU

W 67-66

−0.5

SEA

L 66-71

−6.5

USD

L 62-66

−9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

TROY

W 74-63

−3.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+6.5

FAU

L 65-76

−3.5

OHIO

W 70-58

−16.5

STBK

L 68-71

+0.5

SLU

L 70-91

+10.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−26.5

UNA

W 91-57

+7.5

MORG

W 83-56

−5.5

SMC

L 73-78

+7.5

PAC

W 80-71

+11.5

WSU

L 76-78

+11.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−25.5

W 84-82

+24.5

SCU

L 72-103

+21.5

ORST

L 70-76

+5.5

PORT

L 58-71

−19.5

SEA

L 59-69

−13.5

ORST

L 69-72

−0.5

SCU

L 73-104

+23.5

W 84-75

+13.5

USD

W 83-63

−5.5

PAC

L 59-65

−17.5

PEPP

L 89-90

+31.5

USD

W 77-65

−7.5

WSU

W 67-66

−16.5

SEA

L 66-71

+0.5

USD

L 62-66

−17.5

over 15under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

QUC84.4 #16

LMU72.2 #236

Points per possession

QUC1.19 #25

LMU1.04 #263

Pace (possessions)

QUC71.2 #65

LMU68.9 #185

Shooting

Effective FG%

QUC56.4 #15

LMU51.9 #152

3-point %

QUC35.7 #74

LMU34.8 #130

3-point attempt rate

QUC46.5 #38

LMU40.4 #162

Free throw rate

QUC35.4 #167

LMU31.1 #280

Possessions

Turnover rate

QUC14.8 #54

LMU17.4 #234

Offensive rebound rate

QUC30.2 #190

LMU26.7 #307

Assists per game

QUC16.0 #49

LMU12.7 #234

Defense

Points allowed

QUC83.8 #355

LMU72.7 #122

Points allowed per possession

QUC1.17 #346

LMU1.06 #103

Opponent effective FG%

QUC54.6 #319

LMU48.9 #60

Opponent 3-point %

QUC36.5 #325

LMU34.6 #225

Turnovers forced

QUC15.1 #276

LMU16.6 #178

Defensive rebound rate

QUC66.4 #308

LMU68.0 #258

Steals per game

QUC6.0 #238

LMU6.0 #236

Blocks per game

QUC2.9 #236

LMU3.9 #81

QUC		LMU
Scoring
84.4 #16	Points per game	72.2 #236
1.19 #25	Points per possession	1.04 #263
71.2 #65	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #185
Shooting
56.4 #15	Effective FG%	51.9 #152
35.7 #74	3-point %	34.8 #130
46.5 #38	3-point attempt rate	40.4 #162
35.4 #167	Free throw rate	31.1 #280
Possessions
14.8 #54	Turnover rate	17.4 #234
30.2 #190	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #307
16.0 #49	Assists per game	12.7 #234
Defense
83.8 #355	Points allowed	72.7 #122
1.17 #346	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #103
54.6 #319	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #60
36.5 #325	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #225
15.1 #276	Turnovers forced	16.6 #178
66.4 #308	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #258
6.0 #238	Steals per game	6.0 #236
2.9 #236	Blocks per game	3.9 #81

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Queens University Royals

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue71–104
Wvs C Arkansas98–93
Wvs Austin Peay90–83
Wvs West Georgia71–63
L@ C Arkansas79–84

A week or more of rest.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs San Diego62–66
Lvs Seattle U66–71
Wvs Washington St67–66
W@ San Diego77–65
L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

Queens University Royals at Loyola Marymount Lions

What could decide it: LMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

LMU

Matchup stats

Queens University Royals

LMU