Milwaukee Panthers at Santa Clara Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 10:00 PM ETLeavey Center · at Santa Clara

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Milwaukee and Santa Clara
MILW	This season	SCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 85–70 · win probability SCU 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

MILW 1, SCU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SCUBig

SCU offense vs MILW defense

Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

SCUBig

Three-pointers

MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.0% of their shots

SCUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0

SCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, SCU 20.1%

Context

Schedule so far

MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILWSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, SCU 25.5. Allowed: MILW 35.9, SCU 38.2

SCUSmall

Home court

SCU at home. This season: SCU 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away

Even

MILW offense vs SCU defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, SCU 67.9%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: MILW 3, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SCU -15.3	—
Total	—	155.5	—
Projected score	—	MILW 70.1 · SCU 85.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -9.0	—
1H total	72.7	—
1H projected score	MILW 31.8 · SCU 40.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	5-12	—
SCU WLWLL	18-16	53%	9-5	—

Venue/role: MILW away; SCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20
SCU OUUUO	19-15	56%	25-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ INST	L68–70LU
Nov 13	@ TCU	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs STMN	W69–65WU

Santa Clara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs SAC	W72–65LU
Nov 11	@ UNT	W63–60LU
Nov 14	vs UNM	L71–98LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Clara

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1653%

W W W L W W W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1556%

U U O U U U O O O O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 27	vsSLU	L 70-71	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsMINN	W 86-75	-5.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsUTU	W 90-80	-20.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 170
Dec 6	@UNM	L 71-98	+1.5	L −25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsASU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	vsUNT	W 63-60	-12.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsLUC	L 78-80	-15.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 28	@ORST	W 102-64	-7.5	W +30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	@PORT	W 92-85	-13.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 177
Jan 2	vsPEPP	W 82-63	-20.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUSD	W 98-70	-17.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 8	@GONZ	L 77-89	+17.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 10	vsLMU	W 103-72	-11.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	vsPAC	W 85-69	-12.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsSMC	W 62-54	-1.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 24	@USD	W 85-73	-13.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 28	vsSF	W 88-73	-9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	@LMU	W 104-73	-8.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@PAC	W 71-56	-6.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 127
Feb 7	@WSU	W 96-92	-8.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 188
Feb 11	vsSEA	W 84-72	-12.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 14	vsGONZ	L 86-94	+4.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 21	@SF	W 94-73	-6.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 25	@SMC	L 67-86	+5.5	L −13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsORST	W 93-72	-15.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 165
Mar 8	vsPAC	W 76-68	-9.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 9	vsSMC	W 76-71	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 10	vsGONZ	L 68-79	+8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 20	vsUK	L 84-89	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

SLU

L 70-71

+0.5

MINN

W 86-75

+5.5

UTU

W 90-80

−10.5

UNM

L 71-98

−25.5

ASU

L 79-82

−4.5

UNT

W 63-60

−9.5

LUC

L 78-80

−17.5

ORST

W 102-64

+30.5

PORT

W 92-85

−6.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−1.5

USD

W 98-70

+10.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+5.5

LMU

W 103-72

+19.5

PAC

W 85-69

+3.5

SMC

W 62-54

+6.5

USD

W 85-73

−1.5

W 88-73

+5.5

LMU

W 104-73

+22.5

PAC

W 71-56

+8.5

WSU

W 96-92

−4.5

SEA

W 84-72

−0.5

GONZ

L 86-94

−3.5

W 94-73

+14.5

SMC

L 67-86

−13.5

ORST

W 93-72

+5.5

PAC

W 76-68

−1.5

SMC

W 76-71

+9.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−2.5

L 84-89

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

SLU

L 70-71

−17.5

MINN

W 86-75

+22.5

UTU

W 90-80

+25.5

UNM

L 71-98

+15.5

ASU

L 79-82

+6.5

UNT

W 63-60

−16.5

LUC

L 78-80

+6.5

ORST

W 102-64

+15.5

PORT

W 92-85

+19.5

PEPP

W 82-63

−5.5

USD

W 98-70

+6.5

GONZ

L 77-89

+2.5

LMU

W 103-72

+21.5

PAC

W 85-69

−0.5

SMC

W 62-54

−36.5

USD

W 85-73

−4.5

W 88-73

+10.5

LMU

W 104-73

+23.5

PAC

W 71-56

−24.5

WSU

W 96-92

+27.5

SEA

W 84-72

+8.5

GONZ

L 86-94

+21.5

W 94-73

+8.5

SMC

L 67-86

−0.5

ORST

W 93-72

+11.5

PAC

W 76-68

−4.5

SMC

W 76-71

−3.5

GONZ

L 68-79

−10.5

L 84-89

+15.5

over 19under 15avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee has the better starters

Position by position: Milwaukee 2, Santa Clara 1, even 2

MilwaukeeBetterSanta Clara

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

SCUBig

G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

Even

G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

MILWSmall

G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

MILWSmall

G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56

MilwaukeeBetterSanta Clara

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

Even

SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

SCUBig

SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestMILW betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

Santa Clara

Guards

J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min

Forwards

C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew

Centers

F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MILW74.7 #173

SCU82.9 #30

Points per possession

MILW1.09 #172

SCU1.18 #37

Pace (possessions)

MILW69.1 #174

SCU69.7 #135

Shooting

Effective FG%

MILW49.9 #242

SCU54.5 #53

3-point %

MILW32.3 #266

SCU34.9 #125

3-point attempt rate

MILW38.1 #212

SCU45.0 #67

Free throw rate

MILW32.1 #256

SCU25.5 #363

Possessions

Turnover rate

MILW15.3 #85

SCU15.3 #86

Offensive rebound rate

MILW33.0 #88

SCU36.4 #20

Assists per game

MILW12.9 #220

SCU16.6 #33

Defense

Points allowed

MILW79.9 #317

SCU73.5 #141

Points allowed per possession

MILW1.15 #328

SCU1.06 #117

Opponent effective FG%

MILW55.5 #340

SCU52.0 #213

Opponent 3-point %

MILW36.5 #329

SCU33.1 #127

Turnovers forced

MILW15.8 #232

SCU20.1 #20

Defensive rebound rate

MILW70.8 #121

SCU67.9 #262

Steals per game

MILW6.5 #176

SCU8.7 #14

Blocks per game

MILW3.0 #230

SCU3.6 #125

MILW		SCU
Scoring
74.7 #173	Points per game	82.9 #30
1.09 #172	Points per possession	1.18 #37
69.1 #174	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #135
Shooting
49.9 #242	Effective FG%	54.5 #53
32.3 #266	3-point %	34.9 #125
38.1 #212	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #67
32.1 #256	Free throw rate	25.5 #363
Possessions
15.3 #85	Turnover rate	15.3 #86
33.0 #88	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #20
12.9 #220	Assists per game	16.6 #33
Defense
79.9 #317	Points allowed	73.5 #141
1.15 #328	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #117
55.5 #340	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #213
36.5 #329	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #127
15.8 #232	Turnovers forced	20.1 #20
70.8 #121	Defensive rebound rate	67.9 #262
6.5 #176	Steals per game	8.7 #14
3.0 #230	Blocks per game	3.6 #125

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky84–89
Lvs Gonzaga68–79
Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
Wvs Pacific76–68
Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee Panthers at Santa Clara Broncos

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Santa Clara

Milwaukee has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Milwaukee

Santa Clara