1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 7
  3. SAC @ SCU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 7

Sacramento State Hornets at Santa Clara Broncos

Leavey Center · at Santa Clara
#196SACSacramento St
@
#106SCUSanta Clara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SACThis seasonSCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 86–73 · win probability SCU 87%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

SAC 1, SCU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SAC 47.0 and allows 55.0; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0
SACBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SAC 41.2, SCU 25.5. Allowed: SAC 36.2, SCU 38.2
SCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SAC 25.2%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: SAC 66.6%, SCU 67.9%
SCUBig
SCU offense vs SAC defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 262nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SAC has played the 248th-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SCUBig
Three-pointers
SAC hits 31.9% and allows 35.1%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 35.6% and 45.0% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SAC plays 72.6 a game (24th fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points
SCUSmall
Home court
SCU at home. This season: SCU 0-0 at home, SAC 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SAC 14.1%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: SAC 17.1%, SCU 20.1%
Even
SAC offense vs SCU defense
Offense 146th of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SAC 42%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: SAC 6, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SCU -12.8—
Total—158.7—
Projected score—SAC 73 · SCU 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSCU -7.5—
1H total74.2—
1H projected scoreSAC 33.3 · SCU 40.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Sacramento St has the better starters

Position by position: Sacramento St 2, Santa Clara 1, even 2
Sacramento StBetterSanta Clara
G M. Williams18.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 56
Even
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
G L. Hughes TR17.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
SACBig
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
G M. Wilson TR12.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.9 ast Score 76
SACSmall
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
G A. Madi7.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 44
Even
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
F O. Grady TR9.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
SCUBig
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
Sacramento StBetterSanta Clara
SAC offense146th of 366 · -4.4
Even
SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8
SAC defense262nd of 366 · -6.8
SCUBig
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players
SACBig
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-3.4 · 5 players
SCUBig
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSAC betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Sacramento St
Guards
M. Williams36 minL. Hughes32 min · TRM. Wilson27 min · TRA. Madi24 minT. Glover14 minR. Robinson11 min
Forwards
O. Grady31 min · TRR. Tutic23 min · TRS. Ciani10 min · TRM. HuntNewG. AsimakopoulosNew
Centers
J. Das Chagas7 min · TR
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SACSCU
Scoring
75.9 #144Points per game82.9 #30
1.05 #258Points per possession1.18 #37
72.6 #24Pace (possessions)69.7 #135
Shooting
47.0 #337Effective FG%54.5 #53
31.9 #2843-point %34.9 #125
35.6 #2573-point attempt rate45.0 #67
41.2 #41Free throw rate25.5 #363
Possessions
14.1 #26Turnover rate15.3 #86
25.2 #336Offensive rebound rate36.4 #20
12.1 #275Assists per game16.6 #33
Defense
83.6 #352Points allowed73.5 #141
1.15 #327Points allowed per possession1.06 #117
55.0 #331Opponent effective FG%52.0 #213
35.1 #257Opponent 3-point %33.1 #127
17.1 #140Turnovers forced20.1 #20
66.6 #306Defensive rebound rate67.9 #262
7.5 #76Steals per game8.7 #14
2.7 #280Blocks per game3.6 #125
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sacramento St

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho45–68
  • Wvs Idaho St83–65
  • L@ Montana St61–82
  • L@ Montana73–81
  • Lvs Idaho80–86

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.