Fresno State Bulldogs at UC San Diego Tritons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM ETLionTree Arena · at UC San Diego

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Fresno St and UC San Diego
FRES	This season	UCSD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSD 75–69 · win probability UCSD 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

FRES 0, UCSD 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCSDBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FRES 0%, UCSD 68%. Transfers in: FRES 5, UCSD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UCSDBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5; UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4

Context

Schedule so far

FRES has played the 103rd-hardest schedule, UCSD the 205th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCSDSmall

FRES offense vs UCSD defense

Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings

UCSDSmall

Home court

UCSD at home. This season: UCSD 0-0 at home, FRES 0-0 away

UCSDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FRES 27.9%, UCSD 26.1%. Defensive: FRES 69.4%, UCSD 73.0%

UCSDSmall

UCSD offense vs FRES defense

Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: FRES 33.8, UCSD 31.2. Allowed: FRES 28.6, UCSD 29.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FRES 18.1%, UCSD 16.5%. Forced: FRES 18.2%, UCSD 16.8%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: FRES plays 69.3 a game (156th fastest), UCSD 69.7 (130th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%; UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 40.9% and 42.3% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCSD -6.1	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	FRES 69.2 · UCSD 75.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCSD -3.5	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	FRES 32.1 · UCSD 35.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WLWLW	21-10	68%	7-5	—
UCSD WLWLL	16-16	50%	5-8	—

Venue/role: FRES away; UCSD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UUUUU	12-19	39%	12-19
UCSD UUUUU	12-20	38%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	2-8 20%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
UCSD	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fresno St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs GAST	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs UCR	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ SJSU	W82–68WU

UC San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ USU	W75–73WU
Nov 16	vs TXSO	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs SEA	L71–84LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FRES 0–1 UCSDUCSD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · FRES 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	UCSD 78 @ FRES 73	FRES -1.5	UCSD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fresno St

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

21-1068%

L W L W W W W L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U O O U O O U U U O U U U U U O U O U U O U O O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUPST	L 66-67	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsLBSU	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	vsUCSD	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsUVU	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 18	vsSFA	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsNOLA	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsPEPP	W 76-53	-2.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 30	vsCSUB	L 71-76	-10.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 6	@ARK	L 58-82	+19.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 140
Dec 10	@CSUN	L 87-89	+3.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 20	@UNLV	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 156
Dec 30	vsUSU	L 63-72	+14.5	W +5.5	154.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsNEV	L 65-66	+4.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	@SJSU	W 70-55	-1.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@SDSU	L 52-71	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 13	vsCSU	W 79-69	+3.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 148
Jan 17	vsWYO	W 63-60	+3.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 123
Jan 21	@UNM	L 74-83	+15.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsGCU	L 57-68	+4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 31	@AF	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 3	vsUNLV	W 98-96	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 194
Feb 7	@NEV	L 59-69	+11.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 10	@USU	L 78-91	+21.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsAF	W 93-63	-14.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 156
Feb 17	@WYO	L 82-92	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	+9.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@CSU	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsBOIS	L 53-69	+7.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsSJSU	W 82-68	-7.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	@GCU	L 60-85	+12.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 145
Mar 11	vsCSU	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−10.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+13.5

UCSD

L 73-78

−6.5

UVU

W 75-74

+5.5

SFA

W 80-78

+4.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+2.5

PEPP

W 76-53

+20.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−15.5

ARK

L 58-82

−4.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+1.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

+5.5

NEV

L 65-66

+3.5

SJSU

W 70-55

+13.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−4.5

CSU

W 79-69

+13.5

WYO

W 63-60

+6.5

UNM

L 74-83

+6.5

GCU

L 57-68

−6.5

W 79-62

+7.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+3.5

NEV

L 59-69

+1.5

USU

L 78-91

+8.5

W 93-63

+15.5

WYO

L 82-92

−0.5

UNM

L 78-80

+7.5

CSU

L 70-74

+4.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−8.5

SJSU

W 82-68

+6.5

GCU

L 60-85

−12.5

CSU

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−31.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+1.5

UCSD

L 73-78

+2.5

UVU

W 75-74

−7.5

SFA

W 80-78

+11.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+6.5

PEPP

W 76-53

−21.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−3.5

ARK

L 58-82

−21.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+14.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

−19.5

NEV

L 65-66

−15.5

SJSU

W 70-55

−24.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−23.5

CSU

W 79-69

+8.5

WYO

W 63-60

−22.5

UNM

L 74-83

+5.5

GCU

L 57-68

−20.5

W 79-62

−0.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+40.5

NEV

L 59-69

−21.5

USU

L 78-91

+16.5

W 93-63

+13.5

WYO

L 82-92

+25.5

UNM

L 78-80

+1.5

CSU

L 70-74

−5.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−27.5

SJSU

W 82-68

−1.5

GCU

L 60-85

−4.5

CSU

L 63-67

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC San Diego

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W W W W W L W W W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsHCU	W 78-60	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 12	@FRES	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsIDHO	W 75-67	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 24	vsTEM	W 91-76	+1.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 167
Nov 25	vsBRAD	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsTOW	W 87-73	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 2	@NEV	L 70-76	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LBSU	W 80-74	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 13	vsTULN	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 16	@LMU	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUSD	L 80-82	-12.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 1	@CP	L 65-67	-8.5	L −10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	vsHAW	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 8	vsCSUF	L 71-88	-13.5	L −30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	@UCR	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	vsCSUN	L 79-84	-7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	@CSUB	W 83-62	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@UCD	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCI	L 59-61	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsUCSB	L 48-62	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	@CSUN	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	vsLBSU	W 77-74	-10.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 7	@HAW	L 67-72	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsUCD	W 68-51	-5.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsUCR	W 72-66	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 21	@UCI	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	vsCSUB	W 84-72	-14.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsCP	W 80-64	-7.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@CSUF	L 71-75	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCSB	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsCP	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 141
Mar 12	vsCSUN	L 70-80	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

+10.5

FRES

W 78-73

+6.5

IDHO

W 75-67

+2.5

TEM

W 91-76

+16.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+11.5

TOW

W 87-73

+12.5

NEV

L 70-76

−0.5

LBSU

W 80-74

−2.5

TULN

W 93-67

+20.5

LMU

W 67-57

+8.5

USD

L 80-82

−14.5

L 65-67

−10.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−30.5

UCR

W 69-66

−7.5

CSUN

L 79-84

−12.5

CSUB

W 83-62

+12.5

UCD

W 80-74

+4.5

UCI

L 59-61

−4.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−18.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−18.5

LBSU

W 77-74

−7.5

HAW

L 67-72

+1.5

UCD

W 68-51

+11.5

UCR

W 72-66

−5.5

UCI

W 71-69

+5.5

CSUB

W 84-72

−2.5

W 80-64

+8.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−6.5

UCSB

W 64-63

+3.5

W 72-69

−1.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

−3.5

FRES

W 78-73

+2.5

IDHO

W 75-67

−6.5

TEM

W 91-76

+18.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+18.5

TOW

W 87-73

+21.5

NEV

L 70-76

−3.5

LBSU

W 80-74

+8.5

TULN

W 93-67

+10.5

LMU

W 67-57

−26.5

USD

L 80-82

+5.5

L 65-67

−42.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−7.5

UCR

W 69-66

−14.5

CSUN

L 79-84

+3.5

CSUB

W 83-62

−2.5

UCD

W 80-74

+1.5

UCI

L 59-61

−26.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−35.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−15.5

LBSU

W 77-74

+6.5

HAW

L 67-72

−10.5

UCD

W 68-51

−31.5

UCR

W 72-66

−9.5

UCI

W 71-69

−3.5

CSUB

W 84-72

+7.5

W 80-64

−20.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−10.5

UCSB

W 64-63

−14.5

W 72-69

−21.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−3.5

over 12under 20avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: Fresno St 0, UC San Diego 2, even 3

Fresno StBetterUC San Diego

G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

No call

G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52

G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76

Even

G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71

G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

UCSDSmall

G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50

F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38

UCSDBig

G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51

Fresno StBetterUC San Diego

FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4

UCSDSmall

UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3

FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4

Even

UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestFRES betterUCSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Fresno St

Guards

D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew

Forwards

B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew

Centers

B. Fall5 min · TR

UC San Diego

Guards

R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min

Forwards

L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew

Centers

D. Vukicevic7 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FRES72.3 #233

UCSD74.5 #179

Points per possession

FRES1.04 #266

UCSD1.07 #211

Pace (possessions)

FRES69.3 #156

UCSD69.7 #130

Shooting

Effective FG%

FRES50.6 #206

UCSD52.6 #124

3-point %

FRES32.1 #274

UCSD32.8 #241

3-point attempt rate

FRES40.9 #146

UCSD42.3 #131

Free throw rate

FRES33.8 #218

UCSD31.2 #277

Possessions

Turnover rate

FRES18.1 #277

UCSD16.5 #165

Offensive rebound rate

FRES27.9 #272

UCSD26.1 #320

Assists per game

FRES12.6 #247

UCSD14.9 #94

Defense

Points allowed

FRES73.5 #142

UCSD70.5 #63

Points allowed per possession

FRES1.06 #110

UCSD1.01 #35

Opponent effective FG%

FRES51.5 #184

UCSD48.4 #45

Opponent 3-point %

FRES30.7 #30

UCSD31.6 #45

Turnovers forced

FRES18.2 #88

UCSD16.8 #165

Defensive rebound rate

FRES69.4 #183

UCSD73.0 #38

Steals per game

FRES6.7 #154

UCSD7.4 #94

Blocks per game

FRES2.2 #331

UCSD2.6 #299

FRES		UCSD
Scoring
72.3 #233	Points per game	74.5 #179
1.04 #266	Points per possession	1.07 #211
69.3 #156	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #130
Shooting
50.6 #206	Effective FG%	52.6 #124
32.1 #274	3-point %	32.8 #241
40.9 #146	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #131
33.8 #218	Free throw rate	31.2 #277
Possessions
18.1 #277	Turnover rate	16.5 #165
27.9 #272	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #320
12.6 #247	Assists per game	14.9 #94
Defense
73.5 #142	Points allowed	70.5 #63
1.06 #110	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #35
51.5 #184	Opponent effective FG%	48.4 #45
30.7 #30	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #45
18.2 #88	Turnovers forced	16.8 #165
69.4 #183	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #38
6.7 #154	Steals per game	7.4 #94
2.2 #331	Blocks per game	2.6 #299

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Colorado St63–67
L@ Grand Canyon60–85
Wvs San José St82–68
Lvs Boise St53–69
L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
Wvs Cal Poly72–69
W@ Santa Barbara64–63
L@ Fullerton71–75
Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

Fresno State Bulldogs at UC San Diego Tritons

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

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ATS History · 2025-26

Fresno St

UC San Diego

UC San Diego has the better starters

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Fresno St

UC San Diego