Utah Valley Wolverines at Weber State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM ETDee Events Center · at Weber St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Utah Valley and Weber St
UVU	This season	WEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVU 79–72 · win probability UVU 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVU has more of the edges

UVU 4, WEB 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UVUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UVU 55.0 and allows 49.4; WEB 51.7 and allows 54.5

UVUBig

UVU offense vs WEB defense

Offense 161st of 366 against a defense 336th, on the model’s ratings

UVUBig

WEB offense vs UVU defense

Offense 280th of 366 against a defense 152nd, on the model’s ratings

UVUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UVU 44%, WEB 9%. Transfers in: UVU 3, WEB 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

WEBSmall

Three-pointers

UVU hits 34.0% and allows 35.2%; WEB hits 34.5% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 32.9% and 32.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

UVU has played the 254th-hardest schedule, WEB the 316th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WEBSmall

Home court

WEB at home. This season: WEB 0-0 at home, UVU 0-0 away

WEBSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UVU 38.2, WEB 39.1. Allowed: UVU 39.1, WEB 36.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UVU 34.8%, WEB 31.8%. Defensive: UVU 68.7%, WEB 72.3%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UVU 20.1%, WEB 15.7%. Forced: UVU 21.3%, WEB 16.3%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UVU plays 70.2 a game (104th fastest), WEB 70.7 (85th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UVU -7.3	—
Total	—	151.2	—
Projected score	—	UVU 79.2 · WEB 72

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVU -4.5	—
1H total	70.7	—
1H projected score	UVU 37.6 · WEB 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVU LLLLL	13-18	42%	4-9	—
WEB WWWLL	16-14	53%	8-6	—

Venue/role: UVU away; WEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVU OOUUO	17-14	55%	22-9
WEB OOOUO	16-14	53%	14-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVU	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
WEB	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah Valley

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ NEV	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs SJSU	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ LBSU	W88–78WO

Weber St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ UTAH	L89–92WO
Nov 18	@ USU	L73–83WU
Nov 24	vs TAR	L65–75LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UVU 3–0 WEBUVU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · UVU has won the last 3 meetings · UVU 3-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2025-26	WEB 74 @ UVU 90	UVU -15.5	UVU W
Dec 21, 2024-25	UVU 64 @ WEB 62	WEB -2.5	UVU W
Dec 5, 2023-24	WEB 54 @ UVU 70	UVU +2.5	UVU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah Valley

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L L W W W L W W W W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L L W W W L W L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W W L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U U O O U O U O O O O O U O U U U O U U O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BOIS	L 77-101	+12.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 15	@FRES	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUCI	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 25	vsSDST	W 75-52	-1.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsSAM	W 89-45	-7.5	W +36.5	148.5	U 134
Dec 3	@SDSU	L 66-77	+8.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 6	@BGSU	W 82-71	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 153
Dec 10	vsIDST	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 13	vsUCSB	W 68-53	-5.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	vsWEB	W 90-74	-15.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsCBU	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@TAR	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 176
Jan 3	@ACU	L 68-85	-7.5	L −24.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 8	vsSUU	W 89-72	-18.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 10	vsUTU	W 92-76	-13.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 168
Jan 17	vsUTA	W 86-74	-11.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 21	@SUU	L 70-84	-12.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 154
Jan 24	@CBU	L 71-78	+1.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 29	@TAR	W 83-55	-6.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 138
Feb 5	vsACU	W 68-55	-14.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 123
Feb 7	vsUTA	W 81-60	-12.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 12	@UTU	L 77-81	-9.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 19	vsCBU	W 65-46	-8.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 21	@UTA	W 66-54	-6.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 26	vsTAR	W 79-72	-17.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsACU	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 5	@SUU	W 92-88	-9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 180
Mar 7	@UTU	W 104-101	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 205
Mar 13	vsUTA	W 67-65	-8.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 132
Mar 14	vsCBU	L 61-63	-2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 18	vsGW	L 78-79	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

−11.5

FRES

L 74-75

−5.5

UCI

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

W 75-52

+21.5

SAM

W 89-45

+36.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−2.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+9.5

IDST

W 73-69

−5.5

UCSB

W 68-53

+9.5

WEB

W 90-74

+0.5

CBU

W 73-66

−0.5

TAR

W 91-85

+0.5

ACU

L 68-85

−24.5

SUU

W 89-72

−1.5

UTU

W 92-76

+2.5

UTA

W 86-74

+0.5

SUU

L 70-84

−26.5

CBU

L 71-78

−5.5

TAR

W 83-55

+21.5

ACU

W 68-55

−1.5

UTA

W 81-60

+8.5

UTU

L 77-81

−13.5

CBU

W 65-46

+10.5

UTA

W 66-54

+5.5

TAR

W 79-72

−10.5

ACU

W 74-67

−7.5

SUU

W 92-88

−5.5

UTU

W 104-101

−5.5

UTA

W 67-65

−6.5

CBU

L 61-63

−4.5

L 78-79

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

+26.5

FRES

L 74-75

−7.5

UCI

W 79-72

+1.5

SDST

W 75-52

−24.5

SAM

W 89-45

−14.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−1.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+8.5

IDST

W 73-69

+0.5

UCSB

W 68-53

−25.5

WEB

W 90-74

+15.5

CBU

W 73-66

−9.5

TAR

W 91-85

+31.5

ACU

L 68-85

+13.5

SUU

W 89-72

+6.5

UTU

W 92-76

+18.5

UTA

W 86-74

+16.5

SUU

L 70-84

−6.5

CBU

L 71-78

+1.5

TAR

W 83-55

−16.5

ACU

W 68-55

−22.5

UTA

W 81-60

−0.5

UTU

L 77-81

+9.5

CBU

W 65-46

−31.5

UTA

W 66-54

−17.5

TAR

W 79-72

+9.5

ACU

W 74-67

+0.5

SUU

W 92-88

+29.5

UTU

W 104-101

+57.5

UTA

W 67-65

−4.5

CBU

L 61-63

−15.5

L 78-79

+4.5

over 17under 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Weber St

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L L L W L W W L W L L L W W W W L L L W L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W W W L W W L L L L L W W W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

O U U O U U O U U O O O O U U O U U O O O U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UTAH	L 89-92	+15.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 12	@USU	L 73-83	+22.5	W +12.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 15	@UCI	L 70-79	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsCAM	W 91-85	-1.5	W +4.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 22	vsUTA	L 73-74	-2.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 147
Nov 29	vsKC	W 82-61	-10.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsORU	W 92-66	-7.5	W +18.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 7	@STMN	L 65-88	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 10	@KC	W 64-60	-7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 17	@UVU	L 74-90	+15.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsUTU	L 80-82	-5.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 1	vsPRST	L 90-95	+1.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 185
Jan 3	vsSAC	W 95-82	-6.5	W +6.5	168.5	O 177
Jan 8	@NAU	W 78-65	-2.5	W +10.5	149.5	U 143
Jan 10	@UNCO	W 76-71	+6.5	W +11.5	162.5	U 147
Jan 15	vsEWU	W 91-80	-3.5	W +7.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsIDHO	L 67-75	+1.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 142
Jan 22	@MONT	L 65-81	+4.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 146
Jan 24	@MTST	L 88-91	+6.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsIDST	W 81-79	-2.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 160
Feb 2	@SAC	L 90-104	+1.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 5	vsUNCO	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	162.5	U 162
Feb 7	vsNAU	W 72-53	-7.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 125
Feb 12	@IDHO	W 83-72	+5.5	W +16.5	153.5	O 155
Feb 14	@EWU	L 66-84	+3.5	L −14.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 19	vsMTST	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsMONT	W 92-72	-2.5	W +17.5	152.5	O 164
Feb 28	@IDST	W 83-73	+2.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 2	@PRST	L 60-84	+4.5	L −19.5	144.5	U 144
Mar 9	vsEWU	L 79-84	+3.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+12.5

USU

L 73-83

+12.5

UCI

L 70-79

+2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+4.5

UTA

L 73-74

−3.5

W 82-61

+10.5

ORU

W 92-66

+18.5

STMN

L 65-88

−15.5

W 64-60

−3.5

UVU

L 74-90

−0.5

UTU

L 80-82

−7.5

PRST

L 90-95

−3.5

SAC

W 95-82

+6.5

NAU

W 78-65

+10.5

UNCO

W 76-71

+11.5

EWU

W 91-80

+7.5

IDHO

L 67-75

−6.5

MONT

L 65-81

−11.5

MTST

L 88-91

+3.5

IDST

W 81-79

−0.5

SAC

L 90-104

−12.5

UNCO

L 74-88

−12.5

NAU

W 72-53

+11.5

IDHO

W 83-72

+16.5

EWU

L 66-84

−14.5

MTST

W 82-79

+1.5

MONT

W 92-72

+17.5

IDST

W 83-73

+12.5

PRST

L 60-84

−19.5

EWU

L 79-84

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+32.5

USU

L 73-83

−0.5

UCI

L 70-79

−2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+16.5

UTA

L 73-74

−2.5

W 82-61

−12.5

ORU

W 92-66

+0.5

STMN

L 65-88

−1.5

W 64-60

−26.5

UVU

L 74-90

+15.5

UTU

L 80-82

+9.5

PRST

L 90-95

+36.5

SAC

W 95-82

+8.5

NAU

W 78-65

−6.5

UNCO

W 76-71

−15.5

EWU

W 91-80

+12.5

IDHO

L 67-75

−16.5

MONT

L 65-81

−11.5

MTST

L 88-91

+31.5

IDST

W 81-79

+8.5

SAC

L 90-104

+31.5

UNCO

L 74-88

−0.5

NAU

W 72-53

−25.5

IDHO

W 83-72

+1.5

EWU

L 66-84

−4.5

MTST

W 82-79

+12.5

MONT

W 92-72

+11.5

IDST

W 83-73

+3.5

PRST

L 60-84

−0.5

EWU

L 79-84

+8.5

over 16under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah Valley has the better starters

Position by position: Utah Valley 1, Weber St 0, even 4

Utah ValleyBetterWeber St

G T. Davis TR7.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

UVUSmall

G A. Grayson3.3 pts · 1.2 reb · 1 ast Score 6

G B. Housley4.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 5

No call

F B. Felder TR2.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G S. Weatherspoon4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

No call

F D. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F I. Davis10.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

No call

C A. Ekwe TR2.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F I. Hawkins7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 94

No call

C D. Cutler1.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Utah ValleyBetterWeber St

UVU offense161st of 366 · -4.8

UVUBig

WEB defense336th of 366 · -8.9

UVU defense152nd of 366 · -3.3

UVUBig

WEB offense280th of 366 · -8.6

Backcourt-6.7 · 3 players

WEBBig

Backcourt-1.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

UVUBig

Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestUVU betterWEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Utah Valley

Guards

T. Davis27 min · TRB. Housley26 minS. Weatherspoon16 minD. Nelson8 min · TRJ. Barnes5 min · TRM. BabraitisNew

Forwards

I. Davis19 minI. Hawkins14 minT. Weaver8 minT. Medaris5 minO. MowafakNewD. DengNew

Weber St

Guards

A. Grayson12 minA. JacksonNewA. PowellNewM. AbittanNewS. Marius JonesNewH. HansenNew

Forwards

B. Felder6 min · TRD. ThompsonNewD. WarlickNewC. BurgessNew

Centers

A. Ekwe10 min · TRD. Cutler6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UVU77.7 #101

WEB78.8 #82

Points per possession

UVU1.11 #126

WEB1.11 #112

Pace (possessions)

UVU70.2 #104

WEB70.7 #85

Shooting

Effective FG%

UVU55.0 #38

WEB51.7 #163

3-point %

UVU34.0 #170

WEB34.5 #143

3-point attempt rate

UVU32.9 #317

WEB32.8 #320

Free throw rate

UVU38.2 #98

WEB39.1 #76

Possessions

Turnover rate

UVU20.1 #349

WEB15.7 #115

Offensive rebound rate

UVU34.8 #51

WEB31.8 #132

Assists per game

UVU17.5 #14

WEB12.6 #241

Defense

Points allowed

UVU70.8 #72

WEB79.1 #300

Points allowed per possession

UVU1.01 #32

WEB1.12 #269

Opponent effective FG%

UVU49.4 #78

WEB54.5 #316

Opponent 3-point %

UVU35.2 #260

WEB33.5 #160

Turnovers forced

UVU21.3 #7

WEB16.3 #204

Defensive rebound rate

UVU68.7 #221

WEB72.3 #56

Steals per game

UVU9.3 #6

WEB6.9 #133

Blocks per game

UVU5.1 #14

WEB1.5 #360

UVU		WEB
Scoring
77.7 #101	Points per game	78.8 #82
1.11 #126	Points per possession	1.11 #112
70.2 #104	Pace (possessions)	70.7 #85
Shooting
55.0 #38	Effective FG%	51.7 #163
34.0 #170	3-point %	34.5 #143
32.9 #317	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #320
38.2 #98	Free throw rate	39.1 #76
Possessions
20.1 #349	Turnover rate	15.7 #115
34.8 #51	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #132
17.5 #14	Assists per game	12.6 #241
Defense
70.8 #72	Points allowed	79.1 #300
1.01 #32	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #269
49.4 #78	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #316
35.2 #260	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #160
21.3 #7	Turnovers forced	16.3 #204
68.7 #221	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #56
9.3 #6	Steals per game	6.9 #133
5.1 #14	Blocks per game	1.5 #360

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah Valley

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs G Washington78–79
Lvs CA Baptist61–63
Wvs UT Arlington67–65
W@ Utah Tech104–101
W@ Southern Utah92–88

A week or more of rest.

Weber St

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs E Washington79–84
L@ Portland St60–84
W@ Idaho St83–73
Wvs Montana92–72
Wvs Montana St82–79

A week or more of rest.

Utah Valley Wolverines at Weber State Wildcats

What could decide it: UVU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah Valley

Weber St

Utah Valley has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Utah Valley

Weber St