North Dakota State Bison at Saint Mary's Gaels: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 10:00 PM ETUniversity Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Dakota St and Saint Mary's
NDSU	This season	SMC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMC 78–64 · win probability SMC 89%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

NDSU 1, SMC 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, SMC the 93rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

SMCBig

NDSU offense vs SMC defense

Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings

NDSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, SMC 16.9%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, SMC 15.1%

SMCBig

Three-pointers

NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 42.8% and 36.4% of their shots

SMCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8

SMCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, SMC 35.5. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, SMC 25.7

SMCSmall

SMC offense vs NDSU defense

Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), SMC 66.2 (305th). Faster games mean more points

SMCSmall

Home court

SMC at home. This season: SMC 0-0 at home, NDSU 0-0 away

SMCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, SMC 37.5%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, SMC 76.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, SMC 32%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, SMC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SMC -14.0	—
Total	—	141.7	—
Projected score	—	NDSU 63.9 · SMC 77.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -8.2	—
1H total	66.3	—
1H projected score	NDSU 29.1 · SMC 37.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLL	18-14	56%	9-6	—
SMC WWWLL	19-13	59%	12-4	—

Venue/role: NDSU away; SMC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU OUUUO	15-17	47%	24-8
SMC OUUUU	14-18	44%	26-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SMC	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ SF	No recent meeting
Nov 8	@ CSUB	W80–69WU
Nov 13	vs ILST	L68–77LO

Saint Mary's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs NEV	No recent meeting
Nov 13	vs UIC	No recent meeting
Nov 16	vs PRST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Dakota St

32 games played

Straight up

24-8

75% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-875%

L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

W L W W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O O U O U U U O O O U O O O U U U U O U O U U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ORST	L 65-67	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 5	@UCD	L 68-80	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 11	vsCSUN	W 90-68	-4.5	W +17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 17	vsSIU	W 92-85	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsJXST	W 56-43	-3.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 99
Nov 28	@ARST	L 80-85	+3.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 3	@MONT	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 153
Dec 6	vsNAU	W 69-68	-12.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 11	@CSUB	W 80-69	-7.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	@DRKE	W 99-94	+5.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 21	vsUCI	L 73-74	-1.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	@UTEP	L 66-76	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 31	vsSDAK	W 84-61	-11.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsORU	W 79-77	-13.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 8	@KC	W 97-73	-9.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	@OMA	W 78-76	-5.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 14	vsSDST	W 76-65	-5.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsSTMN	W 68-65	-2.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	@DEN	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 159
Jan 24	@ORU	W 86-58	-10.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 31	@SDAK	W 89-84	-8.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 173
Feb 5	vsDEN	L 71-78	-12.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 149
Feb 7	vsOMA	W 92-84	-9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Feb 14	@UND	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 149
Feb 18	@SDST	W 74-66	-1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsKC	W 95-59	-19.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	@STMN	L 62-84	+3.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsUND	W 96-63	-11.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsORU	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsOMA	W 74-50	-8.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsUND	W 70-62	-11.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsMSU	L 67-92	+16.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

+7.5

UCD

L 68-80

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+17.5

SIU

W 92-85

+5.5

JXST

W 56-43

+9.5

ARST

L 80-85

−1.5

MONT

W 81-72

+12.5

NAU

W 69-68

−11.5

CSUB

W 80-69

+3.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+10.5

UCI

L 73-74

−2.5

UTEP

L 66-76

−12.5

SDAK

W 84-61

+11.5

ORU

W 79-77

−11.5

W 97-73

+14.5

OMA

W 78-76

−3.5

SDST

W 76-65

+5.5

STMN

W 68-65

+0.5

DEN

W 82-77

+0.5

ORU

W 86-58

+17.5

SDAK

W 89-84

−3.5

DEN

L 71-78

−19.5

OMA

W 92-84

−1.5

UND

W 83-66

+11.5

SDST

W 74-66

+6.5

W 95-59

+16.5

STMN

L 62-84

−18.5

UND

W 96-63

+21.5

ORU

W 76-65

−1.5

OMA

W 74-50

+15.5

UND

W 70-62

−3.5

MSU

L 67-92

−8.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

−12.5

UCD

L 68-80

+5.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+1.5

SIU

W 92-85

+23.5

JXST

W 56-43

−43.5

ARST

L 80-85

+4.5

MONT

W 81-72

−0.5

NAU

W 69-68

−10.5

CSUB

W 80-69

−0.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+47.5

UCI

L 73-74

+0.5

UTEP

L 66-76

+2.5

SDAK

W 84-61

−19.5

ORU

W 79-77

+9.5

W 97-73

+25.5

OMA

W 78-76

+6.5

SDST

W 76-65

−10.5

STMN

W 68-65

−18.5

DEN

W 82-77

−1.5

ORU

W 86-58

−7.5

SDAK

W 89-84

+18.5

DEN

L 71-78

−7.5

OMA

W 92-84

+29.5

UND

W 83-66

−0.5

SDST

W 74-66

−6.5

W 95-59

+5.5

STMN

L 62-84

−9.5

UND

W 96-63

+6.5

ORU

W 76-65

−6.5

OMA

W 74-50

−22.5

UND

W 70-62

−15.5

MSU

L 67-92

+14.5

over 15under 17avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Mary's

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W W L L W L W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O O O U U O U U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsBOIS	L 67-68	-2.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 19	vsFAU	W 88-75	-13.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsUNI	W 63-58	-11.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 28	@LMU	W 78-73	-9.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	@PEPP	W 72-45	-19.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	vsPORT	W 78-57	-18.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	vsSEA	W 93-76	-11.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsWSU	W 88-82	-15.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 170
Jan 13	@SF	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 17	@SCU	L 54-62	+1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 21	vsORST	W 81-51	-19.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 24	@PORT	W 75-69	-14.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 31	@GONZ	L 65-73	+8.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUSD	W 87-60	-20.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 7	vsSF	W 79-54	-11.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsPEPP	W 88-60	-24.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	@PAC	W 72-61	-7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@SEA	W 72-70	-9.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	@WSU	W 83-67	-8.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 150
Feb 25	vsSCU	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsGONZ	W 70-59	+2.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsSCU	L 71-76	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsTA&M	L 50-63	-2.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 113

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−3.5

FAU

W 88-75

−0.5

UNI

W 63-58

−6.5

LMU

W 78-73

−4.5

PEPP

W 72-45

+7.5

PORT

W 78-57

+2.5

SEA

W 93-76

+5.5

WSU

W 88-82

−9.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−6.5

ORST

W 81-51

+10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−8.5

GONZ

L 65-73

+0.5

USD

W 87-60

+6.5

W 79-54

+13.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

+3.5

SEA

W 72-70

−7.5

WSU

W 83-67

+7.5

SCU

W 86-67

+13.5

GONZ

W 70-59

+13.5

SCU

L 71-76

−9.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−4.5

FAU

W 88-75

+17.5

UNI

W 63-58

−11.5

LMU

W 78-73

+7.5

PEPP

W 72-45

−24.5

PORT

W 78-57

−11.5

SEA

W 93-76

+29.5

WSU

W 88-82

+26.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−36.5

ORST

W 81-51

−10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−0.5

GONZ

L 65-73

−6.5

USD

W 87-60

−1.5

W 79-54

−9.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

−2.5

SEA

W 72-70

+8.5

WSU

W 83-67

+0.5

SCU

W 86-67

−0.5

GONZ

W 70-59

−14.5

SCU

L 71-76

−3.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−36.5

over 14under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: N Dakota St 1, Saint Mary's 1, even 3

N Dakota StBetterSaint Mary's

G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19

SMCBig

G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42

Even

G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53

G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79

NDSUBig

G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21

G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73

F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31

No call

F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

N Dakota StBetterSaint Mary's

NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5

SMCBig

SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5

NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3

SMCSmall

SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5

Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players

SMCBig

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

SMCSmall

Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestNDSU betterSMC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Dakota St

Guards

M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR

Forwards

K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew

Saint Mary's

Guards

J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew

Forwards

T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew

Centers

S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NDSU78.7 #87

SMC76.8 #125

Points per possession

NDSU1.14 #76

SMC1.17 #39

Pace (possessions)

NDSU69.2 #169

SMC66.2 #305

Shooting

Effective FG%

NDSU53.2 #92

SMC52.8 #109

3-point %

NDSU35.4 #93

SMC38.7 #7

3-point attempt rate

NDSU42.8 #122

SMC36.4 #242

Free throw rate

NDSU30.6 #289

SMC35.5 #162

Possessions

Turnover rate

NDSU15.6 #108

SMC16.9 #201

Offensive rebound rate

NDSU32.9 #89

SMC37.5 #12

Assists per game

NDSU14.8 #97

SMC15.1 #82

Defense

Points allowed

NDSU71.4 #90

SMC65.2 #7

Points allowed per possession

NDSU1.03 #63

SMC0.98 #14

Opponent effective FG%

NDSU52.0 #215

SMC46.8 #20

Opponent 3-point %

NDSU33.9 #173

SMC31.4 #40

Turnovers forced

NDSU18.7 #62

SMC15.1 #274

Defensive rebound rate

NDSU74.5 #15

SMC76.1 #4

Steals per game

NDSU7.7 #64

SMC5.5 #302

Blocks per game

NDSU2.8 #265

SMC3.6 #129

NDSU		SMC
Scoring
78.7 #87	Points per game	76.8 #125
1.14 #76	Points per possession	1.17 #39
69.2 #169	Pace (possessions)	66.2 #305
Shooting
53.2 #92	Effective FG%	52.8 #109
35.4 #93	3-point %	38.7 #7
42.8 #122	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #242
30.6 #289	Free throw rate	35.5 #162
Possessions
15.6 #108	Turnover rate	16.9 #201
32.9 #89	Offensive rebound rate	37.5 #12
14.8 #97	Assists per game	15.1 #82
Defense
71.4 #90	Points allowed	65.2 #7
1.03 #63	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #14
52.0 #215	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #20
33.9 #173	Opponent 3-point %	31.4 #40
18.7 #62	Turnovers forced	15.1 #274
74.5 #15	Defensive rebound rate	76.1 #4
7.7 #64	Steals per game	5.5 #302
2.8 #265	Blocks per game	3.6 #129

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan St67–92
Wvs North Dakota70–62
Wvs Omaha74–50
Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M50–63
Lvs Santa Clara71–76
Wvs Gonzaga70–59
Wvs Santa Clara86–67
W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

North Dakota State Bison at Saint Mary's Gaels

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Dakota St

Saint Mary's

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Dakota St

Saint Mary's