North Dakota State Bison at San Francisco Dons: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 10:00 PM ETThe Sobrato Center · at San Francisco

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Dakota St and San Francisco
NDSU	This season	SF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SF 75–72 · win probability SF 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

NDSU 2, SF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, SF the 98th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NDSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, SF 15.9%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, SF 14.1%

SFBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, SF 40.1. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, SF 29.6

NDSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, SF 31.4%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, SF 71.0%

SFSmall

Home court

SF at home. This season: SF 0-0 at home, NDSU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), SF 67.3 (271st). Faster games mean more points

SFSmall

NDSU offense vs SF defense

Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, SF 3%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, SF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

SF offense vs NDSU defense

Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 42.8% and 46.1% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; SF 51.3 and allows 50.8

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SF -3.8	—
Total	—	146.8	—
Projected score	—	NDSU 71.5 · SF 75.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SF -2.1	—
1H total	68.7	—
1H projected score	NDSU 33.3 · SF 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLL	18-14	56%	9-6	—
SF LLWWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—

Venue/role: NDSU away; SF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU OUUUO	15-17	47%	24-8
SF UOUOO	17-15	53%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ CSUB	W80–69WU
Nov 13	vs ILST	L68–77LO
Nov 15	vs CSUB	W80–69WU

San Francisco

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs MONT	W71–67LU
Nov 14	vs PRST	W80–70LU
Nov 18	vs UL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Dakota St

32 games played

Straight up

24-8

75% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-875%

L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

W L W W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O O U O U U U O O O U O O O U U U U O U O U U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ORST	L 65-67	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 5	@UCD	L 68-80	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 11	vsCSUN	W 90-68	-4.5	W +17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 17	vsSIU	W 92-85	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsJXST	W 56-43	-3.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 99
Nov 28	@ARST	L 80-85	+3.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 3	@MONT	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 153
Dec 6	vsNAU	W 69-68	-12.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 11	@CSUB	W 80-69	-7.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	@DRKE	W 99-94	+5.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 21	vsUCI	L 73-74	-1.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	@UTEP	L 66-76	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 31	vsSDAK	W 84-61	-11.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsORU	W 79-77	-13.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 8	@KC	W 97-73	-9.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	@OMA	W 78-76	-5.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 14	vsSDST	W 76-65	-5.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsSTMN	W 68-65	-2.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	@DEN	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 159
Jan 24	@ORU	W 86-58	-10.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 31	@SDAK	W 89-84	-8.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 173
Feb 5	vsDEN	L 71-78	-12.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 149
Feb 7	vsOMA	W 92-84	-9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Feb 14	@UND	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 149
Feb 18	@SDST	W 74-66	-1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsKC	W 95-59	-19.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	@STMN	L 62-84	+3.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsUND	W 96-63	-11.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsORU	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsOMA	W 74-50	-8.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsUND	W 70-62	-11.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsMSU	L 67-92	+16.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

+7.5

UCD

L 68-80

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+17.5

SIU

W 92-85

+5.5

JXST

W 56-43

+9.5

ARST

L 80-85

−1.5

MONT

W 81-72

+12.5

NAU

W 69-68

−11.5

CSUB

W 80-69

+3.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+10.5

UCI

L 73-74

−2.5

UTEP

L 66-76

−12.5

SDAK

W 84-61

+11.5

ORU

W 79-77

−11.5

W 97-73

+14.5

OMA

W 78-76

−3.5

SDST

W 76-65

+5.5

STMN

W 68-65

+0.5

DEN

W 82-77

+0.5

ORU

W 86-58

+17.5

SDAK

W 89-84

−3.5

DEN

L 71-78

−19.5

OMA

W 92-84

−1.5

UND

W 83-66

+11.5

SDST

W 74-66

+6.5

W 95-59

+16.5

STMN

L 62-84

−18.5

UND

W 96-63

+21.5

ORU

W 76-65

−1.5

OMA

W 74-50

+15.5

UND

W 70-62

−3.5

MSU

L 67-92

−8.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

−12.5

UCD

L 68-80

+5.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+1.5

SIU

W 92-85

+23.5

JXST

W 56-43

−43.5

ARST

L 80-85

+4.5

MONT

W 81-72

−0.5

NAU

W 69-68

−10.5

CSUB

W 80-69

−0.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+47.5

UCI

L 73-74

+0.5

UTEP

L 66-76

+2.5

SDAK

W 84-61

−19.5

ORU

W 79-77

+9.5

W 97-73

+25.5

OMA

W 78-76

+6.5

SDST

W 76-65

−10.5

STMN

W 68-65

−18.5

DEN

W 82-77

−1.5

ORU

W 86-58

−7.5

SDAK

W 89-84

+18.5

DEN

L 71-78

−7.5

OMA

W 92-84

+29.5

UND

W 83-66

−0.5

SDST

W 74-66

−6.5

W 95-59

+5.5

STMN

L 62-84

−9.5

UND

W 96-63

+6.5

ORU

W 76-65

−6.5

OMA

W 74-50

−22.5

UND

W 70-62

−15.5

MSU

L 67-92

+14.5

over 15under 17avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Francisco

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L W W W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L W L L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W W L L L W W W W W L L L L W L L W L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsNEV	L 65-81	-5.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 3	vsUNA	L 63-65	-16.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 7	vsMSST	W 65-62	+4.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	@SLU	L 75-85	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLUC	W 85-71	-11.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMORG	W 94-64	-25.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 28	@SEA	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@ORST	L 62-70	-4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	vsUSD	W 74-64	-12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 4	vsPORT	W 73-68	-11.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 8	@LMU	L 82-84	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@PEPP	W 80-60	-7.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 13	vsSMC	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 18	vsWSU	W 85-80	-5.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 165
Jan 24	@GONZ	L 66-68	+15.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 28	@SCU	L 73-88	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsPAC	W 87-82	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsLMU	L 75-84	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	@SMC	L 54-79	+11.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 12	vsORST	L 63-90	-8.5	L −35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@USD	W 92-79	-5.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsGONZ	L 59-80	+15.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsSCU	L 73-94	+6.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 28	@PAC	W 72-61	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsPORT	W 82-65	-6.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 147
Mar 8	vsORST	L 77-78	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

NEV

L 65-81

−21.5

UNA

L 63-65

−18.5

MSST

W 65-62

+7.5

SLU

L 75-85

+2.5

LUC

W 85-71

+2.5

MORG

W 94-64

+4.5

SEA

W 67-59

+10.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−2.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

−0.5

PEPP

W 80-60

+12.5

SMC

L 68-82

−8.5

WSU

W 85-80

−0.5

GONZ

L 66-68

+13.5

SCU

L 73-88

−5.5

PAC

W 87-82

+0.5

LMU

L 75-84

−17.5

SMC

L 54-79

−13.5

ORST

L 63-90

−35.5

USD

W 92-79

+7.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−5.5

SCU

L 73-94

−14.5

PAC

W 72-61

+14.5

PORT

W 82-65

+10.5

ORST

L 77-78

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

NEV

L 65-81

+3.5

UNA

L 63-65

−17.5

MSST

W 65-62

−23.5

SLU

L 75-85

+4.5

LUC

W 85-71

+12.5

MORG

W 94-64

+12.5

SEA

W 67-59

−20.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−14.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

+24.5

PEPP

W 80-60

−0.5

SMC

L 68-82

+8.5

WSU

W 85-80

+18.5

GONZ

L 66-68

−15.5

SCU

L 73-88

+10.5

PAC

W 87-82

+30.5

LMU

L 75-84

+13.5

SMC

L 54-79

−9.5

ORST

L 63-90

+12.5

USD

W 92-79

+22.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−12.5

SCU

L 73-94

+8.5

PAC

W 72-61

−9.5

PORT

W 82-65

+0.5

ORST

L 77-78

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Dakota St has the better starters

Position by position: N Dakota St 1, San Francisco 0, even 4

N Dakota StBetterSan Francisco

G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19

No call

G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42

No call

G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79

NDSUBig

F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31

No call

C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

N Dakota StBetterSan Francisco

NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5

Even

SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7

NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3

Even

SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players

SFBig

Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestNDSU betterSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Dakota St

Guards

M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR

Forwards

K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew

San Francisco

Guards

A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew

Forwards

B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew

Centers

I. Diagne7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NDSU78.7 #87

SF73.9 #198

Points per possession

NDSU1.14 #76

SF1.10 #131

Pace (possessions)

NDSU69.2 #169

SF67.3 #271

Shooting

Effective FG%

NDSU53.2 #92

SF51.3 #184

3-point %

NDSU35.4 #93

SF34.6 #140

3-point attempt rate

NDSU42.8 #122

SF46.1 #45

Free throw rate

NDSU30.6 #289

SF40.1 #59

Possessions

Turnover rate

NDSU15.6 #108

SF15.9 #129

Offensive rebound rate

NDSU32.9 #89

SF31.4 #148

Assists per game

NDSU14.8 #97

SF13.6 #174

Defense

Points allowed

NDSU71.4 #90

SF73.8 #149

Points allowed per possession

NDSU1.03 #63

SF1.09 #206

Opponent effective FG%

NDSU52.0 #215

SF50.8 #143

Opponent 3-point %

NDSU33.9 #173

SF34.1 #187

Turnovers forced

NDSU18.7 #62

SF14.1 #331

Defensive rebound rate

NDSU74.5 #15

SF71.0 #105

Steals per game

NDSU7.7 #64

SF5.1 #332

Blocks per game

NDSU2.8 #265

SF2.9 #238

NDSU		SF
Scoring
78.7 #87	Points per game	73.9 #198
1.14 #76	Points per possession	1.10 #131
69.2 #169	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #271
Shooting
53.2 #92	Effective FG%	51.3 #184
35.4 #93	3-point %	34.6 #140
42.8 #122	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #45
30.6 #289	Free throw rate	40.1 #59
Possessions
15.6 #108	Turnover rate	15.9 #129
32.9 #89	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #148
14.8 #97	Assists per game	13.6 #174
Defense
71.4 #90	Points allowed	73.8 #149
1.03 #63	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #206
52.0 #215	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #143
33.9 #173	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #187
18.7 #62	Turnovers forced	14.1 #331
74.5 #15	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #105
7.7 #64	Steals per game	5.1 #332
2.8 #265	Blocks per game	2.9 #238

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan St67–92
Wvs North Dakota70–62
Wvs Omaha74–50
Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oregon St77–78
Wvs Portland82–65
W@ Pacific72–61
Lvs Santa Clara73–94
Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.

North Dakota State Bison at San Francisco Dons

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Dakota St

San Francisco

N Dakota St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Dakota St

San Francisco