1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. UNF @ UCLA
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

North Florida Ospreys at UCLA Bruins

Pauley Pavilion · at UCLA
#333UNFNorth Florida
@
#26UCLAUCLA AP #22
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNFThis seasonUCLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCLA 93–61 · win probability UCLA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

UNF 0, UCLA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCLABig
UCLA offense vs UNF defense
Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
UCLABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNF 17.8%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: UNF 12.8%, UCLA 18.5%
UCLABig
UNF offense vs UCLA defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNF has played the 168th-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCLABig
Three-pointers
UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 51.7% and 35.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UNF plays 72.3 a game (31st fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points
UCLABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4
UCLABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNF 25.2%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: UNF 62.4%, UCLA 66.7%
UCLASmall
Home court
UCLA at home. This season: UCLA 0-0 at home, UNF 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNF 28.8, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: UNF 31.4, UCLA 34.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNF 45%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: UNF 3, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCLA -32.4—
Total—154.3—
Projected score—UNF 61 · UCLA 93.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCLA -19.1—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreUNF 26.5 · UCLA 45.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UCLA has the better starters

Position by position: North Florida 0, UCLA 5, even 0
North FloridaBetterUCLA
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
UCLASmall
G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
UCLABig
G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
UCLABig
F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
UCLABig
F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
UCLABig
C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
North FloridaBetterUCLA
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
UCLABig
UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
UCLABig
UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
UCLABig
Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Even
Bench+0.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUNF betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
UCLA
Guards
J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew
Forwards
E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew
Centers
X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNFUCLA
Scoring
77.1 #112Points per game77.0 #115
1.06 #218Points per possession1.16 #48
72.3 #31Pace (possessions)66.5 #297
Shooting
52.9 #106Effective FG%53.4 #85
35.0 #1173-point %37.9 #19
51.7 #73-point attempt rate35.5 #259
28.8 #333Free throw rate33.1 #237
Possessions
17.8 #261Turnover rate13.4 #14
25.2 #335Offensive rebound rate31.1 #162
13.4 #185Assists per game16.1 #45
Defense
89.6 #365Points allowed71.1 #75
1.24 #364Points allowed per possession1.07 #129
56.3 #349Opponent effective FG%50.4 #120
35.1 #253Opponent 3-point %32.0 #64
12.8 #360Turnovers forced18.5 #76
62.4 #361Defensive rebound rate66.7 #304
4.6 #352Steals per game6.7 #156
1.4 #364Blocks per game3.0 #218
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn57–73
  • Wvs UCF75–71
  • Lvs Purdue66–73
  • Wvs Michigan St88–84
  • Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.