1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. PORT vs UTA
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Portland Pilots vs UT Arlington Mavericks

Stan Sheriff Center · Neutral site
#169PORTPortland
vs
#258UTAUT Arlington
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORTThis seasonUTA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PORT 75–70 · win probability PORT 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PORT has more of the edges

PORT 3, UTA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UTABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PORT 28.1%, UTA 34.9%. Defensive: PORT 67.5%, UTA 69.9%
UTABig
Three-pointers
PORT hits 29.9% and allows 36.1%; UTA hits 29.1% and allows 26.9%. Threes are 35.4% and 30.7% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
PORT has played the 124th-hardest schedule, UTA the 268th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORTSmall
UTA offense vs PORT defense
Offense 289th of 366 against a defense 202nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: PORT plays 70.2 a game (106th fastest), UTA 67.3 (265th). Faster games mean more points
PORTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PORT 41%, UTA 7%. Transfers in: PORT 4, UTA 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
PORTSmall
PORT offense vs UTA defense
Offense 156th of 366 against a defense 211th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PORT 51.2 and allows 52.7; UTA 47.2 and allows 47.5
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PORT 19.6%, UTA 20.7%. Forced: PORT 17.0%, UTA 18.0%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: PORT 34.4, UTA 42.5. Allowed: PORT 32.6, UTA 40.9
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PORT -5.0—
Total—145.0—
Projected score—PORT 75 · UTA 70

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPORT -3.1—
1H total67.8—
1H projected scorePORT 35.5 · UTA 32.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UT Arlington has the better starters

Position by position: Portland 0, UT Arlington 1, even 4
PortlandBetterUT Arlington
G J. Olvera TR13.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 51
No call
G M. Panoam TR0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
G K. Isaac TR5 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
UTABig
F T. McDaniels TR12 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
G D. Censori-Hercules3.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 22
Even
F M. Goodman3.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11
F J. O'Donnell9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 60
No call
F B. McGlothin TR0 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F T. George11.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
No call
F N. Bundalo TR0.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
PortlandBetterUT Arlington
PORT offense156th of 366 · -4.7
PORTSmall
UTA defense211th of 366 · -5.4
PORT defense202nd of 366 · -5.0
PORTSmall
UTA offense289th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
UTABig
Backcourt-0.3 · 1 player
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
PORTBig
Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestPORT betterUTA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Portland
Guards
J. Olvera29 min · TRK. Isaac24 min · TRD. Censori-Hercules21 minR. Parker19 minH. Adam15 min · TRR. NanceNew
Forwards
J. O'Donnell23 minT. George20 minV. Perkovic7 min · TRO. SukurNewH. SewellNew
UT Arlington
Guards
M. Panoam6 min · TRN. Shelby3 min · TRJ. SmithNewT. HankinsNewK. MikalauskasNewJ. ParkerNew
Forwards
T. McDaniels27 min · TRM. Goodman13 minB. McGlothin5 min · TRN. Bundalo3 min · TRT. SimicNewS. HadnotNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORTUTA
Scoring
72.1 #238Points per game67.7 #320
1.02 #299Points per possession1.01 #319
70.2 #106Pace (possessions)67.3 #265
Shooting
51.2 #188Effective FG%47.2 #332
29.9 #3443-point %29.1 #352
35.4 #2633-point attempt rate30.7 #345
34.4 #197Free throw rate42.5 #24
Possessions
19.6 #342Turnover rate20.7 #354
28.1 #266Offensive rebound rate34.9 #50
15.9 #51Assists per game10.7 #345
Defense
78.1 #271Points allowed67.8 #29
1.11 #258Points allowed per possession1.01 #30
52.7 #255Opponent effective FG%47.5 #29
36.1 #308Opponent 3-point %26.9 #1
17.0 #148Turnovers forced18.0 #93
67.5 #281Defensive rebound rate69.9 #166
5.8 #251Steals per game7.3 #97
2.9 #246Blocks per game3.5 #148
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Portland

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Francisco65–82
  • Wvs Washington St74–68
  • Wvs Pepperdine77–68
  • Wvs San Diego87–74
  • L@ Gonzaga48–89

A week or more of rest.

UT Arlington

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah Valley65–67
  • Wvs Southern Utah69–63
  • W@ Abilene Chrstn64–57
  • W@ Tarleton St65–60
  • L@ CA Baptist56–68

A week or more of rest.